COURTING PRABOWO

 UNALIGNED - OR UNDECIDED?  PRABOWO,  CHINA AND US

The pic that should stir Washington.  The pious general and the godless leader

This week Prabowo Subianto has been in Beijing at the  invitation of President Xi Jinping.  It’s the Indonesian president-elect’s first major overseas trip after winning the 14 February election.  No come-soon card yet from Washington, so China’s getting in first.  Should we be worried?  Duncan Graham reports:

China already has our near neighbour in a debt headlock having lent more than US $27 billion and invested US $8 billion.

Last month a “new wave” of Chinese investments into Indonesia was announced, including for an e-car factory - though no $ signs. In the race for influence, there’s little we can do but whinge from the sofa.

Key question: Will Indonesia driven by new President Prabowo Subianto cruise the fast lane with Beijing, the archipelago’s largest trading partner,  or tailgate Washington and its weaponry?

Racism v royalties

In Indonesia, there are two China issues - nation and people.

Citizens are ambivalent about the PRC - its business dealings,  philosophy and nine-dash line claims in the South China Sea.  Confrontations have created waves of jingoism, but the Natuna Sea (Indonesia’s name) has recently stayed calm.

If a storm erupts expect Prabowo to indulge in chest-thumping on a warship's foredeck in front of missile launchers, though little else.  His nation doesn't have the muscle; its population is eleven times bigger than Australia's, but five times smaller than China's.

In a pious society, the deep hate of godless Communism adds to the wariness, but even fanaticism must yield to finance: Selling gold, (the Grasberg deposit in West Papua is the world’s third largest producer), coal, nickel and other resources keeps Southeast Asia's biggest economy buoyant, while local stores are stuffed with goods marked Made in China.

The archipelago is home to about three million ethnic Chinese.  Although often lumped together because of features and values, differences thrive. They are full citizens but race is visceral, an ever-present factor in relationships.

Sinophobia has been rife for centuries. Some families have been in the archipelago since the 13th century, married locals, fought for independence and only speak Indonesian.  That hasn’t stopped the persecution.

Only since 2000 can citizens follow Confucius, use hanzi (Chinese characters) on shop signs and have faith festivals recognised.   The minority was banned by second president Soeharto (1966 -98) from the military and public service so turned to banking and soon had the government in thrall.

 Outbreaks of mass slaughter have occurred across the generations. In 1965 a purge of real or imagined Communists took an estimated 500,000 lives.

The latest killings erupted in  1998 when more than a thousand bled and burned in Jakarta riots.  Shopping malls were firebombed, and Chinese women were allegedly raped though no one was charged.

Exceptions abound but the pribumi (native Javanese) generally dislike and distrust the Orang Cina who have a street reputation for being sly, greedy and insular.  These odiums have never been encountered by your footloose correspondent.

They're also known as the Jews of Asia, smart, entrepreneurial and hard-working.  Some have become powerful oligarchs. A few flaunt their wealth adding resentment to the aversion.

Wanted workforce

Separate are the skilled Chinese who work on Beijing-funded projects, toll roads and mining plants.  Locals accuse them of stealing jobs - more friction.

When the work’s done some head home. Not all: Late last year an industrial accident killed 21 workers (eight were Chinese) at a nickel smelter angering all employees who claimed safety was sidelined in the race for profit.

Like Australia, Indonesia supports the One-China Policy; it has a trade office in Taipei while Taiwan has one in Jakarta. Last year business between the two states nudged $ 10 billion, mostly favouring Indonesia.

Despite the covert racism the average  member of the nation’s 1,331 ethnic groups interacts with Chinese neighbours, shopkeepers and congregations, but contact with Americans is rare as there are less than 12,000.  Hollywood images fill the gap.

The US sells weapons having neutered a deal with Russia. Last year Jakarta ordered 24 F-15EX fighter jets from Boeing.  

Research by the Pew Institute suggests Indonesians are twitchy about Trump but think positively of the US and Barack Obama in particular. As a child, he lived in Indonesia for a while and was schooled in Jakarta.

Prabowo is more cosmopolitan than Jokowi and relaxed using English. He was taught in Indonesia and London and educated militarily in Georgia. He was later banned from the US and Australia for alleged human rights abuses.

The security game

 As Defence Minister Prabowo claimed to be turning a security relationship with the US into a “comprehensive strategic partnership” whatever that’s supposed to mean.

“Indonesia always takes the position of trying to maintain the best of relationships with all nations, especially all major powers. We consider China to be a friendly nation ... (disagreements) resolved through dialogue".

These cliches were conceived in 1948.

 Then Vice President Mohammad Hatta (1902 - 80) asked rhetorically: "Do we, Indonesians, in the struggle for the freedom of our people and our country, only have to choose between Russia and America? Is there any other stand that we can take in the pursuit of our ideals? ... the best policy to adopt is one which does not make us the object of an international conflict."

 Non-alignment has its metaphor - mendayung antara dua karang (rowing between two reefs), a line used regularly as the nation's foreign policy position.  In a UN debate condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine, Jakarta backed the motion plus a Chinese armistice proposal.

Before becoming the overwhelmingly successful candidate in February’s Presidential election Prabowo restated his country’s non-aligned stance, then tipped his baseball cap to the PRC.

“I do admire and acknowledge the success of the Chinese leaders in nearly eradicating poverty,” Prabowo reportedly said at a Washington forum in November.

 "It behoves us to try to learn how they did it, but it doesn’t mean that we can copy their methods. Maybe their methods [are] not in tune with our culture so we have to adjust.”

He then tossed in a storing-and-consuming line: “On the other hand we cannot copy what works for the West.”

If all this seems vague and contradictory, it is.  So try the  Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s explanation:  “What will make a Prabowo foreign policy unique may come less from his understanding of the world and more from his personality and interests.

“He’s known to be impatient, prone to anger, and deeply emotional. He’s also unpredictable—often disregarding the counsel of his advisers. Despite being surrounded by a praetorian guard of former defence and military officials, Prabowo is largely his own foreign policy and defence adviser.”

Attempts to better mould our own view have failed: Requests to interview Prabowo have been ignored.

In a for-or-against global crisis following a blockade or invasion of Taiwan, Indonesia will splash around rowboats and reefs, spruik non-alignment and try to be all things to all people. Japan and the Philippines (which clashed with a Chinese coastguard last month) have already shown they’re cosy in the US camp.  They’ve got less to lose.

Prabowo knows Washington's Southern Hemisphere branch office has airfields and an armory close by, so will ultimately, nervously and with many caveats and time limits subtly side with Amerika Serikat.  

For the moment, anyway.

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 5 April 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/unaligned-or-undecided-prabowo-china-and-us/

TRADE v HR: GUESS WHO WINS?

 The dragon in the room next door

He’s one of China’s most high-ranking and experienced diplomats yet he was caught on TV squirming when confronted by video showing manacled men shunted onto trains.  The prisoners were alleged to be Chinese Uyghur, a Muslim ethnic group.

The interrogator was the BBC’s Andrew Marr in faraway London getting stuck into the Chinese ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming.  The video has been watched around the world. Scores of countries have expressed outrage. Although only 4.4 per cent of the UK population is Muslim, China’s alleged mistreatment of the Uyghur is a major international human rights issue.

Logically it should have been equally important in Indonesia where 88 per cent of the 270 million citizens are said to follow Islam, and disquiet about China’s activities is widespread.

Commented Andreas Harsono of Human Rights Watch in Jakarta: ‘If human rights violations of this scope and scale were taking place in Europe or the United States, one would expect Muslim-majority countries, including Indonesia, to have erupted in protest. But so far, there has been little to no response. Why? Because these abuses are taking place in China.’

The expanded answer lies in Indonesia’s economic dependency on the superpower, and Chinese success in manipulating public opinion.  The Wall Street Journal reported last year: ‘Beijing has run a concerted campaign to convince Indonesia’s religious authorities and journalists that the re-education camps in China’s north-western Xinjiang region are a well-intentioned effort to provide job training and combat extremism.’

Some beneficiaries of their hosts’ largesse bought the Chinese version of jolly students in vocational training centres and not concentration camps, so persuaded the government to mute complaints.  Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said she’d raised concerns in private meetings with her counterpart Wang Yi, but didn’t elaborate.  

The Palace later told journalists the government will not interfere in China’s ‘domestic affairs’.

Indonesia has first-class TV talent and robust talk shows, but some issues are handled with great caution or not at all.  Among them is the Army-managed killing of an estimated half-million real or imagined Communists in 1965-66.  Another is overt criticism of China, Indonesia’s banker and business partner.

One of those bucking the norm has been the video production company Narasi TV which has made a documentary claiming Indonesians have been hoodwinked by Beijing’s propaganda. 

Narasi (narration) was founded in part by Australian-educated Najwa Shihab, the sharpest presenter on Indonesian TV.  The company says its values uphold ‘anti-corruption, tolerance and participation ... bringing forward issues that are often neglected by the mainstream national media.’

As in Australia, some find it handy to conflate the Chinese state, ethnic Chinese individuals and Communism.

Founding president Soekarno was a friend of Russia and China during the Cold War. After the 1965 coup, he was replaced by General Soeharto who embraced the West.  Communism was officially forbidden along with Chinese calligraphy.  Diplomatic ties were suspended.

Dr Philips Vermonte reckons that although most bans (but not Communism) have since been removed, their legacy still infects domestic politics.   

Last week the director of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies spoke at an Australia-Indonesia Centre webinar on geopolitics.  He said his country walked a ‘fine line’ on handling China: ‘Indonesians do not understand China and the Chinese don’t understand Indonesia.’

He could have said the same about Australians.

As reported earlier in this column, although Indonesia officially has only three million Orang Tionghoa (ethnic Chinese citizens), they wield huge business influence, drawing resentment which sometimes turns violent.

Like Australia, the world’s fourth most populous nation relies heavily on trade with China, taking AUD 48 billion worth of goods last year.  It’s also Indonesia’s largest export destination, sending minerals, oils, timber and other produce worth AUD 39 billion.

The government of President Joko Widodo has been desperate for overseas money to improve the Republic’s crumbling and rusting infrastructure.  China has supplied AUD 6.75 billion, making it the second-largest investor after Japan.  Most is for public works, like toll roads, new railways and ports, though not without conditions many resent.

These include the use of imported Chinese labour – supposedly senior engineers with specialised knowledge to handle tricky projects – but also for lower-level jobs that unions say could and should be done by the pribumi (indigenous Indonesians).  Project managers claim workers need to understand instructions in Mandarin.

There have been outbreaks of hostility towards the outsiders.  Widodo has been keen to damp down criticism lest unrest leads to riots, frightening away not only the investors but also cashed-up citizens ready to flee should Sinophobia erupt.

There have been pro-Uyghur demos in Jakarta but they’ve mustered only a few hundred wavers of well-printed placards carrying slogans in English.  

Commented Harsono:   ‘Many of these groups have also rallied against Indonesia’s religious minorities such as Christians and Ahmadiyya (an Islamic sect), so their actions seem more self-interested than principled.’

Chinese PR has cleverly exploiting the pandemic by getting Indonesia to enter a cluster seeking a Covid-19 vaccine.  This is being researched by Padjadjaran University’s Med School in Bandung, West Java.  The lead partners are Chinese biopharmaceutical Sinovac Biotech and the Indonesian state-owned pharmaceutical company Bio Farma.

Bizarrely, Widodo has told the State uni to have a vaccine in production within three months, leading to media stories implying the race has been won.  Hard-headed scientists have warned that testing will be arduous and any prize elusive, but like Trump’s flawed pronouncements the President’s orders have caught the headlines.

The US and Australia have together given 200 ventilators; media photos showed boxes stamped USAID.   We’ve also sent AUD 4.9 million to UNICEF to help response and recovery, but missed out on the hoo-ha.  

Chinese donors have flown 40 tonnes of medical supplies into Jakarta, garnering positive publicity. Mask-laden Boeing 777 freighters touching down make for better pictures than press statements.

There’s been nothing soft and subtle about Washington’s activities in the region. This month it has been video of screaming jets, swivelling missile launchers and the USS Ronald Reagan cruising the South China Sea to keep the vital trade passage ‘free and open’.   

Gathered around the nuclear-powered supercarrier like ducklings paddling around mum, have been one Japanese and five Australian warships.  One was the RAN flagship HMAS Canberra making the point the exercise isn’t token.

Admiral George Wikoff told the WSJ: ‘The purpose is to show an unambiguous signal to our partners and allies that we are committed to regional security and stability.’  

That should please Indonesia but it hasn’t joined the fleet. The Republic’s foreign policy strategy has long been ‘free and active’ with the definition malleable. It’s nervous of getting close to any major power.
This is despite concerns at China’s maritime territorial claims and fishers poaching in Indonesian waters. 

Indonesia has upgraded defence at the Natuna Islands (about 1,000 km north of Jakarta) and told the world its sovereignty is ‘non-negotiable’. 

Tagging along with the Westerners would have reinforced that message and provided useful training, but the PRC might have labelled Indonesia’s leaders as Trump’s lackeys.

Indonesia doesn’t export barley, beef or wine.  But it knows what happens to countries which do sell such goods and offend their patrons.

(Update:  Officially more than 95 thousand confirmed cases and 4,665 deaths – a rate of 4.9 per cent.  Australia’s is around one per cent.)

First published in Pearls and Irritations 27 July 2020:  https://johnmenadue.com/duncan-graham-the-dragon-in-the-room-next-door/

DID WE FORGET? THERE'S LOTS OF LAND AND PEOPLE TWIXT US AND THREATS

Scared of the same bogeyman? Let’s cooperate 

Was Indonesia alerted ahead of the PM’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan announcement?  The presumption is that key people were tipped off, largely because there’s been no blow-back.

The 126-page document makes no mention of Indonesia, though the world’s largest archipelago stands between us and any real or imagined Chinese threat.  

If a Red fleet starts nuclear-powering our way it has two sea-lane choices: Directly through the South China Sea where it has already established military posts, or the roundabout route.  This would skirt the Philippines then through the Pacific Islands where the Middle Kingdom has been consolidating political support. 

There are five mentions in the Australian plan of ‘our region’ along with four for its apparent synonym, the ill-defined ‘Indo- Pacific.’ 

‘ASEAN’ (seven of its ten members have disputes with China over boundaries) and ‘Southeast Asia’ don’t get guernseys.  

China wasn’t mentioned but there’s widespread acceptance that it’s the target, and the current location of any likely conflict the South China Sea. Since 1947 Beijing has claimed a U-shaped zone marked on maps by a line of dashes down the 1,500 km strait.

In 2016 the Philippines challenged this assumption.  The Permanent Court of Arbitration sitting in The Hague found ‘no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'.’  

China ignored the ruling and is reportedly continuing to fish the waters and consolidate bases around the Spratly and Paracel Islands. Meanwhile Indonesia is also strengthening airfields and ports in its nearby Natuna Islands.

The 2006 Lombok Treaty, correctly titled the Agreement between Australia and the Republic of Indonesia on the Framework for Security Cooperation, set terms for talking.  The first clause in Article Three says ‘there shall be ‘regular consultation on defence and security issues of common concern; and on their respective defence policies’.

On any reading that means Jakarta should have been told about Canberra’s plans, so it’s strange there’s been no official confirmation, if only to placate Indonesia’s hyper-nationalists. Instead we’re getting nods and winks, like the Nine Entertainment papers hinting that ‘the upgrade in Australia's strike capacity is likely to be quietly welcomed by our allies in the region.’

One theory for the silence is that it would mean revealing Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has been confiding with her Indonesian counterpart, Prabowo Subianto ahead of the Australian people.  Necessary but distasteful to liberals.

The disgraced former general and son-in-law of second president Soeharto is not Mr Nice Guy.  He fled to exile in Jordan following the 1998 fall of his former protector and after being discharged from the army for ‘misinterpreting orders’ when protesting students disappeared.

He later returned, gathered business backers and became rich, largely through palm-oil plantations and paper mills.  Last year the General Elections’ Commission reported his wealth at almost AUD 2 billion.

Subianto has long been trying for the top job, most recently last year when his Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) Party sided with radical Islamic groups. He’s reportedly still on a US visa blacklist for alleged human rights abuses in East Timor and Jakarta, making it tricky for negotiating arms deals.

Since being given his present job by President Joko Widodo to keep the aggressive opportunist out of domestic politics, Subianto has been on shopping trips to ten countries, including Russia (twice) and China, though without much luck.

According to a Bloomberg report Washington has put pressure on Indonesia to drop an AUD 1.6 billion plan to buy 11 Sukhoi Su-35 Russian fighter jets and spend AUD 287 million on Chinese military vessels.

This is more catch up than new plans.  Early last decade the administration of sixth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) introduced its Minimum Essential Force plan to upgrade the armed forces’ hardware.

Indonesia can put almost half-a-million men and a few women into uniform, and muster a similar number of reservists, but can’t equip them well.  Small arms are made locally, but the swifter, smarter whizz-bangs now being readied in the West and China can only be bought from overseas or made under licence.
Doing business with Russia and China, Indonesia's largest trading partner, carries domestic political risks.  The Communist Party has been outlawed in Indonesia since 1966, and like the PM’s references to German fascism in the 1930s, remains a bugbear to make the littlies wet themselves.

The wild-eyed reckon Widodo is a covert Pinko because so many infrastructure projects have been financed – and built – by Beijing contractors.  It’s an idea as loony as the Bill Gates’ world control fantasy, though not easily dismissed as it’s often pushed by white-clad clerics.

The AUD 7.5 billion set aside by Jakarta for healthcare, social protection and economic stimulus programmes during the Covid-19 pandemic is gnawing the defence budget, now down to AUD 11.7 billion from the AUD 12.3 billion allocated earlier.

It’s difficult for laid-back Aussies to understand some states think we’re a threat.  But paranoid Indonesians have a list reminding that the ‘deputy sheriff of Southeast Asia’ (a line attributed to former PM John Howard) got his star from Washington.

Other remembered Irritants include our backing of East Timor’s independence referendum in 1999 (which resulted in an earlier treaty being shredded), and in 2013 getting caught eavesdropping President SBY and his wife Ani’s phones.  

Also on the distrusters’ tally sheet are US marines training in Darwin, new armaments, airfield upgrades and spy-bases along our north coast and Central Australia. We say these are defensive.  That’s not how they appear to those peering south and seeing the pointy ends of weapons aimed their way.  

Don’t be ridiculous, we’d say, they’ll just sail high above your 6,000 inhabited islands like Qantas heading to Singapore. You’ll rarely see contrails and never hear the thrusters. No need to get jumpy like the Japanese when Kim Jong-un tests his big rockets.

Dr Greta Nabbs-Keller writing in the Lowy’s Institute’s The Interpreter is urging ‘deft management by Australian policymakers’ in handling Indonesian concerns.

The Queensland Uni academic reminded that ‘despite growing strategic convergence, its (Canberra’s) views will not always align with those in Jakarta.

‘New and innovative modalities of cooperation with Indonesia and other regional states will need to be formulated and adequately resourced if Defence is to achieve its new strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific.’

In short – talk.  And put a lot of time and effort into the job.

First published in Pearls and Irritations, 9 July 2020: https://johnmenadue.com/duncan-graham-scared-of-the-same-bogeyman-lets-cooperate/