THANE OF JAVA, KING HEREAFTER

FATHER KNOWS BEST?  NOT THIS TIME

Pic:  The Jakarta Post

How comfy the throne, how rapid the change; a humble Republican from a riverbank shack is now plotting to be King of Indonesia with a regal family as courtiers.

Young Indonesians have had enough of outgoing President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's blatant nepotism, the rise of dynastic politics and a return of the oligarchs.

Furious protests in major cities last week sent the market trembling and forced the Parliament to adjourn. TV news showed police firing tear gas and water cannons as the crowds surged and spotfires flared.

Less than two months before disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto takes office in the land next door, students, workers and idealists are starting to snarl.

Tens of thousands have protested against legislators’ contempt for electors; they’re  demanding respect for representative government and the rule of law - and so far they’re succeeding.

The world’s third largest democracy (after India and the US) has allowed the principles of equality and equity to be slowly trampled during the leader’s past two five-year terms.

The crisis is a reminder that 19^th   century British politician Lord Acton’s quote is ageless and universal: Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Several universities in Indonesia have reportedly issued petitions criticising the current state of democracy and calling on Jokowi to maintain state ethics.

Indonesia’s labelled a ‘flawed democracy’ by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s World Democracy Index. This ranks the Republic at 52;  the Nordic nations and NZ lead the 167 states surveyed.

Last Thursday more than 3,000 police were hopelessly outnumbered by ten times that number in Jakarta as masses condemned planned changes to the Republic’s regional election law in a bid to overturn a ruling by the Constitutional Court. There were no reported casualties or arrests.

Comments from the crowd would resonate with young Australians; fist-thrusters  were there  to protest state abuse of democracy, though also fed up with the rising cost of living, low wages, the power of elites and long delays in bureaucrats responding to complaints of inefficiency.

Once again this highly-charged political shemozzle involves the family of the super popular but ultra cunning Jokowi.  He’s trying to cement his legacy by slipping rellies into power and through them maintaining his grip on the state.

After two five-year terms he can't legally remain in office, though pushed to stay by big business backers. They've argued his rule should continue because it’s led to high economic growth (now above five per cent) mainly through Chinese-funded infrastructure, mining projects and loans.

Two years ago Jakarta owed Beijing  more than AUD 30 billion - a figure now believed to be much higher.

This week the  Court decided candidates in local elections must be at least 30 years old.  That ruled out Jokowi’s youngest son  Kaesang Pangarep, 29, from having his name on a ticket in the November poll.

Jokowi rustled up backers and rapidly garnered support from eight parties already in his pocket. They whipped up new bills a week before  the  candidate registration period to let  Kaesang stand.

Earlier this year the Court, then run by Jokowi’s brother-in-law  Anwar Usman, judged that citizens under 40 could stand for high office if they had prior government experience.

This allowed Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, the former mayor of Solo in Central Java, to offer himself to the public in a three-party race as sidekick to Prabowo.

In February the pair scored 58 per cent in the general election. Prabowo is now the president-elect and Gibran vice president-elect.

Chief Justice  Anwar was reprimanded by his colleagues for - among other things - committing a “serious violation of the code of ethics” and failing to be impartial.

Daddy's boy Gibran

He was demoted but the Court’s decision was upheld.

This month it all got too much with Daddy’s bid to get Kaesang onto the public teat. Another princeling, son-in-law Muhammad Bobby Nasution, 31, is already suckling as mayor of Medan, the archipelago’s fourth biggest city.

The eager legislators said  right-oh boss, swift  passage of contentious laws coming up. But after rocks were chucked and attempts on Thursday to tear down the gates of Parliament, attitudes changed.

Lawmakers remembered the 1998 riots which tore down second president Soeharto after 32 years of autocracy, so suddenly discovered caution.

Jokowi sought to soothe the crowds, not in person but through a video: "We respect the authority and decisions of each state institution. This is a normal constitutional process that takes place within our state institutions."

No one was fooled.   The politicians peered out through barred windows and concluded keeping the status quo might be safest.

Deputy House Speaker Sufmi Dasco Ahmad was reported by Reuters as ruling out changes in the law, claiming insufficient time for debate.

In an Instagram posting, former Ambassador to the US Dr Dino Patti Djalal, who now runs a foreign policy think tank said attempts by politicians to bypass the Constitutional Court "have harmed the quality and credibility of Indonesian democracy.

"This has shaken people's trust in state institutions and damaged  Indonesia's good name in the international community.

“We are worried to see the rampant indications of politicization of law, where legal cases are used as tools to secure the political agenda of certain parties. We must all work hard to fight corruption, collusion, conspiracy, and nepotism.”

Jokowi’s replacement Prabowo has a reputation for being a hard-right disciplinarian. At an investment forum this year after winning the Presidency  he complained that democracy is “really, very, very tiring … messy and costly,”

Winston Churchill was more articulate.  He’s supposed to have said: “Democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those others.”

Once in the top chair frustrated Prabowo might try “those others”.  Instead of placatory words maybe rifle butts and mass arrests.  Tense times loom.

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  First published in Pearls & Irritations,27 August 2024:  https://johnmenadue.com/father-knows-best-not-this-time/

COURTING DISASTER

 LOSERS WHINGE, WINNERS RULE

From left:  Winner, then losers   Credit Kompas

A tip to take a wee shot at understanding the way of doing politics in Indonesia:  Suspend rationality.  Now imagine PM Anthony Albanese offering Scott Morrison a ministry - choice from five.  Not such a smart move for Down Under but OK for next door.

Come May the Indonesian Constitutional Court should respond to challenges by the two losing candidates following the 14 February national presidential election results.  Cashiered former general Prabowo Subianto won convincingly as president-elect on his third attempt at the top job.

The hearing from a parade of outraged witnesses has been making for good daytime TV during the past fortnight, though now on pause for the Idul Fitri religious holiday.

Debate in court is a great improvement on street reactions to the 2019 election result when the defeat of  Prabowo triggered riots, torched cars, the killing of ten and the wounding of almost 400. Speculation that it was pre-planned has been rife, though the Prabowo camp  denied responsibility.

Readers might imagine this trouncing might have encouraged Prabowo, 72, to slink away from further contests and retire to his equine stud in the hills.  Instead a few months later he was welcomed back into the political ring; the man who thrashed him at the polls Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo made his prancing rival the Minister of Defence.

This gave the disgraced former soldier an arena to keep going in national politics, access  to the public purse and space for another crack at the job he’s long craved. (The Constitution bars a president from more than two terms so Jokowi wasn’t in the circus this year.)

 It also ensured Prabowo and his right-wing Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party) would shut up criticising the Jokowi government.

Pearls & Irritations can announce the Court's most likely decision now:  The plaintiffs' claim will collapse and Prabowo will remain president-elect till he takes over from Jokowi on 20 October.

The near certainty of this result is underpinned by these factual pillars: Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka (who by curious chance happens to be Jokowi’s eldest son) won 58.58 per cent of the vote.

Next was former academic and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with 24.95 per cent, then former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo with 16.47 per cent

Even if discrepancies, graft, pork-barreling, nepotism, Jokowi's meddling and a swag of other charges brought by the complainants are proved, the vote for Prabowo was so overwhelming, that the alleged wrongdoings wouldn’t be weighty enough to negate the result.  It would also upset the electorate in no mood for a re-run having made their choice so clearly.

Then there's the timing.  The case opened in the last week of March during the holy fasting month leading to this week’s Idul Fitri celebrations.  Though work officially continues up to the big event on 10 April the reality is that an empty tummy takes its toll.

Cameras have caught court officials nodding in the early afternoon though not because they agree with the evidence.  Speeches drone through the still air along with the mesmerising hum of air conditioners and fans.  Hunger gnaws and nicotine addiction screams.  

In the contest of legal arguments versus the imagined evening break-fast meal there’s just one winner.

Another factor: After Idul Fitri comes a two day plus holiday supposedly for earnest prayer and the mudik ritual; this means returning to distant villages to seek forgiveness from relatives for inattention to family responsibilities.  

The traffic soup is thick - about 194 million are expected on the roads - so ideal for those of different or no faiths to stay home and fix roof leaks - except the hardware shops will be shut and tradies gone.

As the hearing started Ganjar  reportedly  said Prabowo should be disqualified ”on the grounds that the way he registered himself had violated election law in addition to ethical problems resulting from nepotism and a coordinated abuse of power".

This argument pings off last year's dramatic decision by the Constitutional Court to allow Gibran, 36, to run as vice president even though he was four years younger than legally permitted.

But who needs rules and precedents when you’ve got the Chief Justice on side? Anwar Usman, who has since lost his position because he didn’t recuse himself from the case, was Gibran's uncle when the controversial decision was made.  Sticklers for the rule-of-law expected the resolution to be rescinded.  It wasn’t.

 Commented one political newsletter: “This trial (the current Constitutional Court hearing) serves more as a national face-saving exercise for Anies and Ganjar by showing the general public that the odds were against them from the start.

“Moreover, the trial provides these two former candidates with a national platform to segue into a new political direction whatever form that may take.”

Jakarta gossip suggests that might include offers of ministries by the President-elect when the court proceedings are over, following the example set by Jokowi in asking not just Prabowo into government, but also his sidekick.

Seeking the Vice Presidency in the 2019 bitter contest was business tycoon Sandiaga Uno.  He’s now Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy.

Should Anies or Ganjar get similar invites, will either seize the bribe to stay on the public payroll - or will they take an ethical stand and trash any offers ?  

The responses will  determine how far principles remain - or have tumbled down the landslip-prone hill of Indonesian democracy.

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First published in Pearls & Irritations, 9 April 2024:https://johnmenadue.com/losers-whinge-winners-rule/