ALL CHANGE – THOUGH NOT FOR THE BETTER                     

Nothing civilian about this show 

We know more about our neighbours’ new leader from the US media – not our own.  Australian correspondents stationed in the region constantly sought interviews with Prabowo Subianto before he became Indonesia's eighth president of the world’s fourth most populous nation.  We were snubbed. 

Being ignored is an occupational hazard for journos; grow a carapace or switch to PR. But getting to hear and read the views of the new guy next door heading 280 million people is important for all Australians - and vital for our future

Among the razzamatazz of the switch from Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo to Prabowo on Sunday were fears this marked the Republic heading backwards – to the New Order autocracy of his late father-in-law and second prez Soeharto.

Some have moaned that Anthony Albanese insulted Jakarta by his absence from the hoopla prioritising a previous engagement with his King.  That could be expeditious.

Should the disgraced former general and alleged human rights abuser become a despot, the PM can remind electors he didn’t personally bless the newcomer. Deputy Richard Marles was sent as Team B.

Prabowo gave Al Jazeera TV a brittle half-hour sit-down in May.  Later he spoke to Time magazine for “over six hours” kissing bubs, and savouring the reporter’s defence line to the jury:

“Prabowo is too complex a character to be distilled as simply the ‘massacre general,’ as he sums up his Western reputation with a resigned eye-roll.” Simply?

Favouring the US and Qatar media over Oz reveals Marle’s  “no relationship more important” line is not reciprocated.

The Indonesian media is being duplicitous by rewriting their new leader as a ‘retired’ general.  That’s a lie. The man was cashiered in 1998 for disobeying orders with his troops ‘disappearing’ student dissidents.  Thirteen are still missing. Prabowo was never charged, a point he likes to throw at critics.

Once sacked he fled to Jordan, only officially returning to Jakarta in 2008 when Soeharto died, his ambitions well bolstered with funds from his younger US dollar billionaire brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

What to know about Prabowo?  He’s 73, mercurial and a misogynist. Indonesia has a gossip-fuelled tabloid press but has never pictured the former Defence Minister with anyone since he and wife Siti split in 1998 after 15 years. No First Lady.

This is unusual.  First President Soekarno set the bar for Javanese manhood as a confirmed philogynist with nine known wives.

Prabowo and Siti’s only child Didit is a middle-aged fashion designer living in Europe and whispered to be gay, not a proper public lifestyle in tut-tut Indonesia.

PS is no great shakes on religion but goes through the rituals in a nation that has more Muslims than any other state so leaders must seem pious.

Mum Dora Marie Sigar was a Protestant, Dad Soemitro Djojohadikoesoemo a Dutch-educated Javanese Muslim economist who quit the country after falling out with Soekarno.

With his parents in exile young Prabowo was educated in Britain – and later as a soldier in the US, so handles English well.

When allegations surfaced of unlawful killings by his troops during spells as a Special Forces Commander in East Timor and West Papua, the West was shocked. He was banned from entering Australia and the US till 2019, something Washington and Canberra don’t want to remember.  For a full account see here.

Prabowo also doesn’t favour academic critics. Like Trump, he’s said some awful things about democracy being past its use-by date, but these may not be his present views as the man is a political chameleon. However, he remains on the hard right.

Prabowo currently faces no threats internally as opposition has been bought off with coalitions and ministerial goodies as thank-you notes.  Human rights activists fear he'll target them and help will have to come from outside causing international friction.

His record on problem-solving is to reload and fire, demanding upset foreigners respect his country’s sovereignty.

 Indonesia calls itself the world’s third largest democracy (after India and the US) though now labelled ‘flawed’ by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Endy Bayuni, a former editor of the Jakarta Post has written:

“All Indonesia’s democratic institutions have become virtually dysfunctional with almost all power residing in the hands of the president. There is no incentive for Prabowo or any other future president to change this."

Public concerns have been soothed by promises of lunches for schoolkids, a fine idea as stunting caused by malnutrition is a serious issue, particularly in faraway regions.

The Rp 71 trillion (AUD 6.9 billion) scheme is due to start next year and for sure will be crippled by corruption as many agencies and private companies will be involved in procurement and supply.

Indonesia ranks 89 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index.  One estimate reckons it’ll take a century of reform before the Republic sheds the curse, and that’s going to need brave leaders committed to ethics in public life.

Prabowo doesn’t fit that ideal.

The free-tucker policy and coupling with Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming as vice president gave the couple 58 per cent of the popular vote in the February election.

The Straits Times claims it’s seen a presentation for foreign investors of Prabowo’s plans to lift growth to eight per cent and make the country self-sufficient in food by clearing vast tracts of jungle in West Papua – a horror plan for Western environmentalists.

That won’t faze Prabowo who has close ties to Moscow and Beijing, visiting both recently,  borrowing money and buying goods.  That’s worried the White House hoping he might favour a US alliance.

Wrong.  Indonesia’s no foreign pact policy goes back to Soekarno’s years and there’s little likelihood of change.

We’re close enough to be good mates but can’t be trusted because we polish our star as the region’s US deputy sheriff, the promotion courtesy of past PM John Howard.

 We backed the 1999 East Timor referendum and sent in peacemakers.  We reckon all good, our triumphs. Prabowo recalls all bad, his nation’s shame.  He won’t talk to Oz journos because he fears what we'd ask - and should.

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First published in Michael West Media, 21 October 2024:  https://michaelwest.com.au/indonesia-has-a-new-president-prabowo-should-we-be-worried/

THIS GEN GAP IS TOO WIDE FOR COMFORT

 

CAN THIS ODD COUPLE SURVIVE?                  

Before debating with Democrat VP candidate Tim Walz, the Republican nominee JD Vance  said the contestants’  views matter little because voters go for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.

That may be right in the US, though not in Indonesia.

This is anecdotal but when contacts blushingly admit to voting for cashiered former general and alleged human rights abuser Prabowo Subianto, they reason by adding they wanted Gibran Rakabuming.

Although the Constitution says VPs are the spare tyre, in reality they’ve been proxies for a voter bloc.  The current VP Ma’ruf Amin, 81, was an esteemed Muslim cleric selected as a crutch when in 2019 President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s advisors detected a religious limp.

This year the age has dropped. In the February poll the wrinkle-free 37-year-old eldest son of once hyper-popular Jokowi became the bait to snare new gen voters the oldies can’t understand.  He spoke prokem (Javanese street slang) looked fresh, seemed cool.

In brief, someone young electors found relatable. 

Prabowo, the plump pensioner atop the ticket is already on borrowed time, five years beyond the average life expectancy for Indonesian men.

During the campaign he tried to appeal to teens with hair dye, silly dances and adopting a cuddly cartoon character; it looked forced, flawed and squirmingly embarrassing.

Odd couples can sometimes thrive, though difficulties expand when each party comes from a different background.

Gibran, a small-town mayor, said little during the campaign, as the label ‘son of Jokowi’ was enough. Voters backed him not for his achievements but as a drop site for their expectations.  A prime prayer from the electorate has been for politics without corruption.

A tough call: Indonesia ranks 89 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index.  One estimate reckons it’ll take a century of reform before the Republic sheds the curse, and that’s going to need brave and committed leaders. They’ve yet to appear.  

Over half the 205 million registered electors this year were millennials (born in the 1990s) and Gen Zs (created this century). 

First time voters knew little of the autocratic Orde Baru (New Order) administration of the late President Soeharto – 32 years of repression. But his one-time son-in-law Prabowo was happily embedded in that era and appears to want it returned.

Gibran couldn’t muster a backstory in the pesantren - Islamic boarding schools that are supposed to instil morality - or the military that reckons it’s the custodian of national duty.   Instead, like a middle-class lad, he’d been schooled in Singapore learning business management and English.

Dad suggested he take over flogging furniture – but the scion wanted to sit on his own stool.  His Chilli Pari catering service rapidly garnered more than AUD 2.2 million, exceeding the value of Papa’s trade.

Perhaps this displays great business acumen though the mean-spirited suggested he profited by association – a nepo baby.

 When Jokowi won the 2014 election, family photos showed Gibran looking surly, more like a petulant teen than a mid-20s adult.  At the time he professed disinterest in politics.

When Gibran did venture a public opinion he got his lips burned by suggesting pregnant women  swig sulphuric acid to prevent stunted babies.  He meant folic acid.

We know he likes soccer (so does almost every man in Indonesia) and supports Barcelona – but that's the limit of the profundities he’ll share.

Like most Indonesians Jokowi’s son played with social media, allegedly using the alias Fufufafa. Long before he became VP-in-waiting, the account was posting unfavourable comments about his Dad’s rival.

The slanders from Prabowo’s camp included claims that Jokowi was secretly a Christian and his father a Communist.

Fufufafa  hit back, reportedly writing:  "Soldiers are dismissed, divorced, children are waving, supporters are radical, coalition parties do not support all out."  This cryptic sentence is supposed to refer to Prabowo’s past.

He was cashiered in 1998 and divorced from Soeharto’s daughter Titiek the same year.  Their only son Didit Hediprasetyo, 40, is a fashion designer in Europe and whispered to be gay.  Populist Indonesian politicians have been urging for laws against homosexuality.

Prabowo has stayed single and seems indifferent to women so there’s no First Lady – a great disappointment in a culture where family loves and feuds are essentials in everyday chat.

By contrast Gibran married local Catholic Selvi Ananda who renounced her faith to marry.  They have two kids.  Attempts by your correspondent to interview the family have been ignored.

The other confusing comments in the online posting are interpreted as references to Prabowo getting Islamic groups to back his earlier campaigns; that support wasn’t sought this year.

Gibran has appeared to deny ownership of the Fufufafa account and tried to flick away the controversy, but the Twittersphere is not so simply dusted.  When Soeharto was boss public critics of the government feared a door-kick by police or army boots.

Not so easy now when the anonymous publishers of scuttlebutt thrive on social media.  So Prabowo has dashed back to his mentor's policies by scrapping Jokowi’s impromptu media conferences. 

There'll be occasional formal events where the prez will select approved questions from chosen reps of partisan publishers.

Prabowo’s spokesperson Hasan Nasbi explained the new system is part of “a greater scheme to limit access provided to journalists ,,, and that the president-elect would only make official statements when necessary.

"For instance, if the President is on a visit to a wet market and he is subjected to questions from reporters, he may not be ready with an answer. We don't want to create confusion."

Hasan also said his boss would need to prepare responses and that he’d only “speak to the press in routine press briefings and only on matters that have been confirmed.”

Maybe the VP is happy with this deal because he’s disclosed little and seems to have an ideology of the same magnitude.  Easier to tag along for the fame and business boost and hope the old fella doesn’t cark it in the next five years.

There’s no marshal’s baton in this neophyte’s knapsack.  Nor any spray can of charisma.

He once stood up to his gentle Dad.  Can he do the same with his fearsome boss?  Will he dare? 

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 10 September 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/can-this-odd-couple-survive/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDONESIA'S CURSE - THE KKN GORGONS

 

LOOMING NOW: THE AGE OF UNCERTAINTY

There’ll soon be a new leader next door – ageing hardliner Prabowo Subianto.  He’s           Indonesia’s dark lord with a worrying past of alleged human rights abuses, yet overwhelmingly elected in the February national poll.  He’ll take over on 20 October.

Some expect the change from the calming Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo to be seamless.  Others fear his tough guy successor will drive out democracy from the world’s fourth most populous     nation and return to a military-led autocracy – as in last century.

What will Jokowi hand-over after two five-year terms in power? Some differences are huge,

A trip between the East Java capital Surabaya and the province’s major hill city Malang through congested villages was once a five-hour ordeal.  Now the 80-kilometre journey on a toll road takes about an hour, thanks to Pak Infrastruktur.

Since 2014 Jokowi's government put down 2,700 km of bitumen at a dazzling pace using 24/7 Chinese labour and loans; the present debt is reportedly US$27.5 billion.

Projects involving national highways, village roads, airports and dams were all                transformative, speeding trade.  During his decade the population grew by 27 million.  The natural increase matches the number of people living in Australia.

Jokowi in a hard hat symbolised a shovelling aside of the avalanches of blocking bureaucracy.  He dug through by treating the government like a business and finding big backers, mainly from Beijing.

Another achievement already introduced but rapidly enlarged is the national insurance health system.  It has serious flaws as the industry exploits its many weaknesses, but it remains an essential helping ease worries about paying for medical care.

Then came nationalism.  Jokowi’s government peacefully negotiated control of the huge gold and copper Freeport mine in West Papua from the US owners and now has 51 per cent of the company.

Foreign affairs was left to career diplomat Retno Marsudi, a lady of no great achievements.  She’s off to the UN so Prabowo has to find another FM, hopefully a civilian.

All good - but Jokowi’s legacy has been clawed by Indonesia’s Gorgons – Korupsi, Kolusi, Nepotisme.

For Jokowi did dirty deals to keep his family in power ripping his reputation as humble Mr Clean  from a riverside mudbank shack.  His PR story claims he’s a clever climber who got to the top without carrying a rifle or wearing Muslim robes. Nor was he carrying the genes of a feudal Sultanate.

 What he did have then and now is a mentor – US educated former four-star general turned  businessman and prominent Protestant Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, 77.

Officially he’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment but on the street he’s Prince Regent and Lord Luhut, titles that infuriate.  He sued two sniggers for defamation and lost.

Before Jokowi became a poli he partnered with Luhut in a furniture export deal. The younger man got into public life through the mayoralty of the small Central Java city of Solo, then as governor of Jakarta.

Jokowi was seen as pure Javanese, socially low key and physically slim; an ideal model for the nation’s marvellous batik shirts, but insufficiently sinewy to wear the uniform of office. His rank was popularity and here he had five stars.

In 2015 he took then-PM Malcolm Turnbull on a blusukan (walkabout) of public markets.  That happy scene is for the archives.  Today Prabowo is into media control.  He waves from jeeps and shuns the media apart from one awkward tussle with Al Jazeera.

There’ll be little access for independent journos ahead, so anticipate few facts but many rumours.

Only skilled cultural anthropologists noted the kid from the kampung was enigmatic and surreptitiously devious, offering ambiguous “why not?” answers to journo’s questions.

Like Icarus he forgot the altimeter.  Denied under the Constitution to extend his stay he used his brother-in-law, a Supreme Court judge to bypass age rules.  That let his eldest son Gibran stand for office and win the vice presidency.  Jokowi’s cleanskin reputation was flayed nationally - likewise his lad’s.

Old social media accounts allegedly published by Gibran rubbishing Prabowo during his earlier tries for the top job have been dismissed as fakes, but the damaging scuttlebutt has spread.

Prabowo is certainly a worry, and not just to his sidekick.   Australian researcher of military crimes in East Timor Pat Walsh has asked if he’s a “fit and proper person” to be president, detailing the commander’s actions in the former Indonesian province. Walsh concluded “no”.

In 1998 Prabowo was cashiered for disobeying orders. That was amid the revolution which saw the authoritarian Soeharto quit the presidency after 32 years of despotic rule.

Prabowo fled to exile in Jordan following his divorce from Soeharto's daughter Siti. He publicly returned in 2008 after his former father-in-law died but failed to get into politics via  any established organisation.

So he started Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement), now the third largest party. Calling it right-wing is too simplistic. It’s certainly bombastically nationalistic and carries a whiff of fascism along with contradictory social benefit programmes like free lunches for school kids.

Once hostile minor parties are now clamouring to bed down in Prabowo’s coalition and suckle the teats of power leaving the government to face no opposition.

Helped by a mainly partisan media Prabowo’s people have been erasing mentions of his alleged human rights abuses .  These awkward stories that he dismisses or denies saw him refused entry to the US and Australia earlier this century.

Indonesia street stalls are already selling photoshopped official portraits of the upcoming leaders to mount on lounge walls.  The 73-year old has shed wrinkles; his 38-year deputy has garnered wisdom lines.

An ANU conference of students and scholars in September held an Indonesia Update: How Jokowi changed Indonesia.

Their predictions of Prabowo’s rule run from maybe a matured reformist to the baton-master of Soeharto Mark Two and the flight of what’s left of democracy.  Most agree he’s a chameleon. ANU Associate Professor Marcus Mietzner reportedly said:

“Widodo’s enduring mark on his country may well be his decision and ability to put Prabowo into the presidency after defeating him twice and questioning his abilities.”

To a Westerner raised in the culture of confrontational politics the idea of a winning leader appointing his twice-defeated bitter rival as Minister of Defence sounds as whacky as eating cats - or a splendid example of forgiveness by a Muslim that Christians might emulate.

Whatever, Jokowi’s endorsement has propelled Prabowo into power tethered to Gibran to keep an eye on Daddy’s Nusantara – the new capital on Borneo Island. There are already hints that Prabowo’s not too keen on finding the cash.

Once in control the prez may send his VP into a dead-end job, like encouraging shy investors to rethink Pappa’s project. 

We don’t know – and neither do the bemused ANU conference experts, as confused as those who live in the archipelago.  Expect a political future as changeable as the climate – an age of uncertainty.

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  First published in Pearls & Irritations 30 September 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/looming-now-in-indonesia-the-age-of-uncertainty/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IGNORE JOURNOS - THEY GET IN THE WAY OF GOVERNMENT MESSAGES

 HOW TO GET GOOD PUBLICITY?  BAN JOURNOS

A tip for politicians worried about bothersome journos upsetting talking points with  probing questions: Don't invite peskies to your pressies.

Instead, gather a bevy of narcissists who call themselves social media 'influencers' and take them to anything they want to admire while being admired.

Lovelies telling their fans of a wonderful government makes for easier viewing than seeing knockabout wordsmiths stuffing mikes up newsmakers’ nostrils for a denial of the obvious.

It's a more subtle system than the Australian tactic of only inviting on-side journos to junkets, but the policy of outgoing Indonesian President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo goes further.

He's using it to sell the benefits of his new   cash-hungry separate city project   Ibu Kota - (capital city)  Nusantara on East Kalimantan, a province on Borneo Island.

Objective journalists, economists and academics in Indonesia and overseas -mainly Australia - have been  dissecting the $45 billion (so far) vanity cash splash in a nation with great needs, like helping almost 26 million poor get decent housing rather than the Prez getting a third palace.  

 The pragmatists reckon IKN will drown the Republic in further debt and isn’t the right raft for the sinking, overcrowded and polluted capital Jakarta.

 The problem is serious and a new city one solution - preferably in Java, the political, administrative and cultural centre of the Republic.

Malaysia's answer to an over-stressed Kuala Lumpur was to build Putrajaya 35 km down the rail line and make it the admin centre.  The Parliament and many ministries remain in nearby KL so the shift has been half-hearted.

IKN is 1,200 km northwest of Jakarta, so public servants will need to abandon their families to keep their jobs.  Few are enthusiastic.

Jokowi has stomped around China and the Arab world seeking monster loans to keep the concrete pouring but there’s been much reluctance since the Japanese SoftBank knocked back the chance to be a lead investor.

This was despite tax breaks and other sweeteners, though no guarantees of handsome returns; the new city's business will be manufacturing undesired bureaucracies rather than wanted consumer goods.

Australian super funds haven’t been persuaded by ‘influencers’ to risk members’ monies in the Jokowi dream. Jakarta’s record for corruption (ranked 115th among 180 countries surveyed by Transparency International) would have frightened decision makers.  

Indonesian  Press Council Chairperson Dr Ninik Rahayu wasn’t happy with the new policy of by-passing the media: "I was surprised why the president came yesterday to the IKN and invited YouTubers and influencers. ”

Her awkward discovery is that superficial presenters pull millions when old media lurking behind paywalls only draws a few lakh. Ninik’s reasoning is right for the public good - though not the pollies’ interests:

“(Jokowi) should have invited the press (to) … see all the comprehensive policies of the IKN so the public knows all about the new capital city”, she said, claiming reporters use “journalistic principles, work democratically and professionally and present high-quality news.”

The IPC was set up by the authoritarian Soeharto government last century to keep scribes in check.  Media  conference attendees got snacks and uang lelah, a practice your correspondent has experienced. (The cash was returned to the organisers' astonishment.  The food was eaten.)  

This century the Council became an independent authority. One academic wrote that it has ‘outstanding powers to draft and ratify regulations about media accountability, to arbitrate complaints against journalists, to cultivate media professionalism, and to safeguard press freedom.’

All good - but it can’t stop newsmakers talking to ‘influencers’ rather than the media.

The international agency  Reporters Without Borders press freedom index ranks the world's fourth largest nation at 111 from 180 countries.

Last month Tempo weekly published an analysis of Jokowi's rule titled A Decade of Declining Democracy, claiming he’d “transformed Indonesia into a country characterized by autocratic legalism.”

A day later Jokowi publicly apologised for his shortcomings - the Jakarta Post reported he 'tearfully' accepted he’d made mistakes.

 The daily listed these as “the regression of democratic values and governance with intimidation against government critics and political opponents as well as shrinking public participation in legislation.”

 The Jakarta Post list should have included murder. In late June TV journalist  Rico Sempurna Pasaribu, died alongside his wife, son and grandchild when his home was firebombed.

He’s been investigating a gambling syndicate allegedly involving the military in North Sumatra. Three months earlier in the same region another journo who’d been checking the drug trade also had his house torched.

Last year the Alliance of Independent Journalists recorded ”89 cases of attacks and obstruction involving 83 individuals, five groups  and 15 media outlets’.

 Anita Wahid, a daughter of the late  Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), Indonesia’s reformist fourth president (1999 - 2001), is now a PhD student at ANU.

She’s written   that the targets “were mainly reporting on “public accountability, corruption, social and criminal issues, and environmental issues.

“The attacks included verbal and physical threats (including torture, confinement and kidnappings), gender-based sexual harassment and assaults, terror and intimidation.”

The 1999 Indonesia  Press Law is supposed to guarantee media protection and citizens' right to information.  It doesn't.

Jokowi's fauxpology is a typical Javanese gesture that will make no difference.  His successor taking over in October is the disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto, a man unfamiliar with the word 'sorry'.  

The word on the street is that Prabowo will continue crushing critics. Whether this means more ‘influencers’ and fewer reporters will become apparent as Prabowo settles into the Jakarta Palace.

Anita Wahid again: ”Journalists are needed now more than ever to monitor a government that has adopted increasingly authoritarian practices, in addition to rising corruption and human rights violations.”

Who'd want a journo’s job in Indonesia when the threats are real and fearful?  Better start a shopping website and get the VIPs keen to chat about their smart doings without the scrutiny needed to keep the bastards honest.

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 8 August 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/how-to-get-good-publicity-ban-journos/

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THE END OF THE ROAD TO A FAIRER SOCIETY

FAREWELL DEMOCRACY 

There’ll be a good indicator - if not a firm result - by the time most Australians go to bed tonight.  Then we’ll know if the ferociously ambitious Prabowo Subianto - Indonesia’s political psychopath   - will be running the nation next door and booting out democracy.

The Economist Intelligence Unit has consistently tagged Indonesia as a “flawed democracy”, behind Malaysia and the Philippines.  Whatever the analysts think today the Republic will be holding a monster - reportedly the world’s biggest one-day election.

Imagine your local supermarket eleven times larger.  Every shelf is sagging,  every product in abundance - only the labels differ with few ingredients listed.  Now transfer the lot onto social media and the street, smothering anything green with vinyl advertising. Presto - the 2024 Indonesian election campaign.

It’s a vast country but only three sets of candidates (all male, Muslim and Javanese) are slugging it out on 14 February to run the Republic for the next five years.  So what’s the big deal?

Forgotten by the AI headliners is that this isn't solely about former Jakarta Governor Dr Anies Baswedan, cashiered one-time general Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, all desperate to be El Supremo.  

Thousands of  Indonesians are standing for a cluster of 20,000 national, regional and local seats next Wednesday. From the banners of their fizzogs, it seems half the citizenry has its hat in the ring - though it’s only 200,000.  

With a population jostling 280 million, Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest country after India, China and the US - and it’s right next door. Be warned, says Canberra -  don’t go if you don’t know; millions will be on the streets and not all will be happy.

Although all candidates are smiling on their placards, that's not everyone's default position. Fist-waving and finger-pointing are essential. The few women have lots of lippy and jilbabs (headscarves);  the young guys bruised foreheads supposedly from head-banging while praying in hard-floor mosques.  

In religious Indonesia, where all citizens must belong to one of six government-approved faiths, it seems that piety is the main qualification for secular administration.

Looking at their forced grins the hopefuls would be happier sneering and snarling, which is how they’ll behave once they lose - as most will. Hoaxes abound,

Citizens need to be 17 or over though underage marrieds can also visit the ballot box in their street or village.  Voting is often in the open and there are so many booths the show is often done and dusted by noon. The system is first-pass-the-post.

Around 205 million have registered.  Based on earlier figures 80 per cent should turn up, though voting isn’t compulsory. Purple ink on the finger shows you’ve already been to a booth. Social media is full of tales of bribes, but your correspondent has been unable to verify.

The cost is enormous and most of the big backers are Indonesian businesses.  One stab is US $ 500 million, but that seems far too low.  For an analysis, go here.

Half the population is under 40 and the prospective legislators have little idea on how to reach a tech-savvy generation with no knowledge of last century’s authoritarian politics and ruthless dealings with dissidents.  Much has been spent on cartoon characters and silly memes, a real insult to thoughtful voters.  Sadly they’re the minority.

The formal handover of power will take place in October.  Till then the admin of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo will continue.

Of the present 575 polis in the Big House, many come from little parties who back Jokowi.  That means he does what he likes and the only opposition comes from NGOs in rented offices with leaky ceilings and shared toilets.

Fortunately Jokowi has been relatively benign, good on toll roads, factories and exports, poor on human rights. He has an 80 per cent approval rate - or did until he backed his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming to stand with Prabowo, earning widespread wrath from academics.

His successor will inherit a steady slackening of enthusiasm for democracy.

With ten or more individuals chasing every seat in the regions and districts, how does the elector make sense of it all?  Best just follow the simper or smirker you like best, or shove a hole through your party's choice using the nail supplied - a left-over from the days when many electors were illiterate. (The rate now is around one per cent and decreasing,)

The Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan  (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) is the only stand-alone as it scored more than 20 per cent of the votes last time.

The others have formed coalitions, diluting their impact and independence, but ensuring a slice of the pizza cut by the winner.

Monday and yesterday were campaign-free, giving candidates a breather and the chance of a clean up.

The candidate pairs - pres and vice - need a simple majority to win. At this stage it's reckoned no one will get that score, meaning a run-off by the top two on 26 June.  But check tonight.

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Duncan Graham has an MPhil degree, a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He lives in East Java.

 

 First published 14 February 2024 in Pearls & Irritations; https://johnmenadue.com/farewell-democracy-link-b-pic-prabowo-subianto/

THE YEAR OF VOTING FEARFULLY

 COMING SOON - D(ECISION) DAY

Image:  MWM

Tis the season to be electing: In 2024  four billion will pick leaders in the US, India, South Africa and 70 others. Among the first is Indonesia. Duncan Graham is there.

A week to go. Exhaustion is obvious and frustration rising after the fifth and final TV debate on Sunday, long on rhetoric, brief on implementation, negligible on costing.  Much was incontestable, like support for the disabled and better maternal care.

On Valentine's Day Indonesians are set to select who'll run the world's third-largest democracy from a field of three candidates and their sidekicks.  Our deeply religious neighbour is technically secular but has more Muslims than any other nation.

So far there’s been no reported violence. This could change if the hoaxes take root and hates grow.

Indonesians like to think they control their emotions. Not always. In 1965 an army-organised genocide took half a million lives. Riots in 1974, 84, 94 and 99 killed thousands. The English word ‘amok’ comes from the region.

Cashiered former general Prabowo Subianto, a hard-right, my-destiny candidate and the man most likely to light the fuse if he loses, said earlier:

“Indonesians can very quickly turn to violence. (It’s) something we would like to address, to control, and to manage. But it is there: fighting between families … villages …tribes …ethnic groups, and finally fighting between religions.”

The ring of fire isn’t confined to volcanic eruptions.

Who are the voters?

Academic research estimates that 60 per cent of the 204 million eligible voters are in the 17–39 age demographic.

The campaign has revealed separate sets of millennials and Gen Zs.  The thoughtful ones are real but invisible to the politicians who want their votes, though not their questions.

The other mob is imagined: Calcified by shock media images the candidates see gadget-crazed narcissists, careless about the direction of their nation so easily distracted with bread and circuses.

They get served trite slogans and cartoons (the speciality of Prabowo’s campaign ), plus K-Pop from supporters of former Jakarta Governor Dr Anies Baswedan.  He benefits, but being an academic denies personal involvement in such base tactics. Running a Republic requires gravitas.

One corny stunt involved choppering a sizeable white shirt above Jakarta’s Hotel Indonesia roundabout, supposedly implying former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo has broad shoulders to carry the load. It looked like a heavenly Hills Hoist.

The torrent of money suggests donors expect handsome rewards for their investments. Presidents can appoint ministers from outside politics. At a rough count, Prabowo is outspending his competitors two to one. As in Australia figures are fuzzy.

Contempt for customers is bad for business and representative government, but hey - who cares?  Snatch their vote, then shove ‘em back in steerage for five more years.

But teens grow up.

Indonesian education is in a bad way, but it’s been worse.  The internet has demolished school walls and excited curiosity. Kids are discovering the history road they’ve been led down is potholed with missing facts.  Like ours and the frontier wars.

Most want the forests and rivers saved and cleansed but few polis do green - they prefer smokestacks. Respondents to a uni survey last year sought declaration of a climate emergency; sixty per cent thought the government hadn't handled the crisis properly.

Nothing happened.

Problems with the ump

Hopes for intelligent policy debate haven’t been helped by Indonesia’s Electoral Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum KPU) an agency with a grubby past.  In 2005 its chair, Monash Uni-educated  Dr Nazaruddin Sjamsuddin, was whacked with huge fines and seven years in jail for taking bribes.

The KPU presently smells fresh, extra important because it's staging an event far more complex than anything attempted by Canberra.   In the 2019  poll 7.4 million election workers were employed. Around 500 reportedly died from stress-related sicknesses.

Politics is a blood sport;  the KPU, fearful of reputational assaults, sought friendly chats. Questions in its TV debates came from ponderous academics and mostly men, not bristly journos.

The public wants gladiators, but adrenalin drains away through a 30-minute prelude of prayers, the national anthem, the KPU song (Choose for Indonesia), handshakes and formulaic speeches.  The candidates’  times are truncated, their canvas contained.

When the piles and fart-cure commercials (metaphors too apt to ignore) shown in the breaks are more credible than the candidates’ pledges of clean government, it’s clear the stench is ineradicable without extreme surgery.  That doctor’s not on-call.

Graft stinks as pungently as it did a decade ago when new President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo promised a fix. It’s repelling the ethical investors his regime yearns to lure: The latest Corruption Perception Index elbowed Indonesia down from 110 to 115 out of 180 countries measured.

Economy up - and down

Left-wing academic and Australian author Max Lane reckons Indonesian politics isn't based on economic or social divides but on how the show has been staged: "Governance built around dynastic power, cronyism, and a right to rule presumed by members of the New Order elite.”  

That was the 1966 - 1998 autocracy of General Soeharto. Although repressive the economy expanded at an average of 7.1 per cent. Then came democracy and growth crashed to 5.2 per cent.

“This is an irony or paradox, that in an era when political freedom was much curtailed, the economy grew at a rapid clip, while poverty levels fell away much more quickly than in the democratic era,” said ANU economist Dr Hal Hill. An awkward truth - dictators can get things done.

There’s been a flurry of vote buying. Days out from the election Jokowi, whose son Gibran Rakabuming is Prabowo’s VP pick,  announced welfare payments for the poor (a cohort larger than the population of Australia), plus wage rises for soldiers and civil servants.

More subtle are the social media finger salutes supposed to send secret messages of support but look more like an Aussie F*** Off signal.  Promises get pencilled on face wipes.  

Prabowo’s idea to give 83 million school kids free milk is already sour.  There aren’t enough dairy cows in the tropical nation, and lactose intolerance is widespread.

Clown-of-the-month award (gender studies) goes to VP hopeful Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin (Mahfud MD) blaming women for men’s corruption, reviving the New Order’s “State Ibuism.

This specified women's duties as breeder, feeder, scrubber and carer. If the kids go off the rails it's  Mum's fault, added Mahfud.  The Legal and Security Minister later ‘clarified’ his comments.  By then modern couples had gone elsewhere.

The polls are sus because sample sizes are too small, but suggest no one candidate getting more than half the votes.  If right there’ll be a run-off on 26 June.

Australians should rest easy with either of the former governors winning, though much will depend on the new foreign minister.  Anies has assured his neighbours -  “no risk”.

Indonesian democracy is already wounded. Elections are “considered neither free nor fair, (because) many other prerequisites … such as freedom of speech and association are absent” reports the Economist Intelligence Unit. 

A Prabowo win will put democracy out of its misery.

 

Duncan Graham has an MPhil degree, a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He lives in East Java.

First published in Michael West Media, 8 February 2024: https://michaelwest.com.au/indonesia-elections-jokowi-favourites/