FAITH IN INDONESIA

FAITH IN INDONESIA
The shape of the world a generation from now will be influenced far more by how we communicate the values of our society to others than by military or diplomatic superiority. William Fulbright, 1964

Monday, September 27, 2021

OUR LOVELY FRIENDS AND NEIGHBOURS - ALL UNTRUSTWORTHY

 

                Walk right in – no consultation required

 

 Nuclear Submarines and Aircraft Carriers | US EPA

This is how to make friends and influence neighbours the Australian way:  First, a couple of ministers pop in on their way elsewhere after 21 months of absence. They pronounce warm relationships and BFF (Best Friends Forever).  A swap of bromides, nice pix, some pressies of vaccines to save lives and military gear to end them.  Then hey ho, it’s off to the big show.

A week later the host gets woken around fajar (the pre-dawn prayer) to be told by the Pal Down Under of detail she forget to mention on the earlier trip:  ‘Wouldn’t normally bother you with trivia Bu Retno, but the media will beat it up so best you hear about our latest acronym first from the horse’s mouth.

‘AUKUS is a bit like ANZUS minus the Kiwis but plus the Brits. We’re linking with the UK and US to build you-beaut nuclear-powered subs to cruise around your archipelago, help make you safer.

‘Not to worry.  They won’t submerge till long after our careers plunge into retirement. Ha, ha! The fleet may have Tomahawk cruise missiles but won’t be carrying nuclear weapons.  Well, not yet.’

As previously reported on this website, the 9 September meeting in Jakarta between Foreign Minister Marise Payne with her Indonesian counterpart Retno Marsudi produced an abundance of blah and a dearth of policy to advance the relationship.

Likewise the chat between Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s version of Donald Trump. The furious loser in the 2019 presidential race is now Defence Minister, and apparently didn’t even get a courtesy heads-up about AUKUS.

What hasn’t been denied is that the Indonesians weren’t just left in the dark about the trilateral deal– they were more in a sensory-deprivation regional policy cell.

It took more than a day for Marsudi’s spokesman Teuku Faizasyah to craft the appropriate language and tone.  In a statement published in English, he said Indonesia ‘takes note cautiously’ of AUKUS while ‘deeply concerned’ about an arms race and ‘power projection in the region’. 

The rest was motherhood stuff about peace, stability, security and pleas to ‘advance dialogue’.  Marsudi stayed silent. Nothing that might lead to a recall of ambassadors, but it did draw a subtle Javanese rebuff. 

The SMH reported plans to meet Joko Widodo on PM Scott Morrison’s flight back from the US and explain why our ‘good mate’ wasn’t consulted were erased when the President remembered he had other elbows to bump in the provinces. 

When Payne and Dutton were in Jakarta earlier this month they proclaimed a strong and respectful relationship.  A week is a long time in foreign affairs.

The Jakarta Post headlined the local reaction to AUKUS as ‘RI tells off Australia’ but the scolding was done with a room-temperature tissue.  The reality is that while RI is publicly offended by the distrust, it’s privately relieved others will be getting their hands dirty in handling China’s expansion while fearing collateral damage should the big egos clash.

Surprisingly the soberest warnings haven’t  come from the peace lobby but a military man, former ADF chief Chris Barrie channelling Winston Churchill:  ‘If we are not using every element of our national power to try and avoid going to war-war instead of jaw-jaw, then we’re making a very serious mistake.’

Although geographically central, Indonesia and its ASEAN partners will likely become ‘strategic observers’ of AUKUS. The Republic has a long-held non-alignment policy and a military ill-equipped for ventures beyond the oppression of domestic dissent. 

It also stays in the back row of the bleachers for the US / India / Australia / Japan ‘Quad’, which Payne callsa diplomatic network of like-minded democracies’.  Indonesia is the biggest player in the region and the world’s third-largest democracy so should have a front-row seat in the ‘security dialogue’ if not a place on the ground.  Its absence is mainly its fault, but fears the Red wrath searing the economy should it barrack for the West.

The Middle Kingdom is now Indonesia’s top trading partner, taking almost 20 per cent of its exports as against the US 11.4 per cent.  Kalimantan (Borneo) coal traders have been filling bulk carriers’ empty holds after President Xi Jinping banned Australia’s black gold.

Beijing (along with Hong Kong) is the largest investor in Indonesia with most money going into ports, roads, railways and mineral processing plants. This is the hand the world’s most populous Islamic country doesn’t want to bite, even though it’s also allegedly throttling the faith of millions of Uyghur Muslims.

The coordinates where the compass needle could go awry are in Indonesia’s Natuna Regency a mini archipelago of 150 or so mostly unoccupied islets 1,145 km north of Jakarta in the South China Sea.  That makes it sound irrelevant, but more than 60 per cent of global maritime trade passes nearby every year.

 A few days before the AUKUS reveal, Kompas daily reported fishers spotting Chinese boats in the zone.  The RI Navy hoisted tact and claimed no proof of infringements. In January 2020 tales of incursions led to Widodo on a warship reminding potential poachers of his Republic’s exclusive economic zone.  Beijing claims fishing rights within an imagined ‘nine-dash line’ unrecognised in international law.

In her Jakarta speech this month Payne talked up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 34 times saying: ‘Australia's vision for the future of our region has ASEAN at its centre. It's principally a shared vision, underpinned by shared principles.’

That was a week ago. To be polite, it’s not only outdated but nonsense. AUKUS is a settled take-over as three senior members of the Anglo Empire move in on Southeast Asia, elbowing aside the long-established ASEAN which was never consulted or mentioned in the joint leaders’ statement.

The pith helmets are back, though now made of bullet-deflecting steel. By Jingo! All we need now is Rudyard Kipling.

 

 First published in Pearls & Irritations, 27 September 2021: https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-how-to-make-friends-and-influence-neighbours-the-australian-way/

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

THE WRITING'S ON THE WALL

 

          Pray, don’t spray, papa’s hurt

 

Presiden Joko Widodo: Terima Kasih Gerakan Pramuka! - Tabloidbintang.com

 

 

The ABC TV programme The Insiders ran a spoof video of Scott Morrison as a caveman urging his followers to leave their refuge.  It was a clever and funny clip - even Coalition MPs might have risked a quiet giggle. Who can guess the PM’s thoughts but we do know Joko Widodo (pictured above, courtesy Tabloid Bintang) and his minders would have flared had the Indonesian President been the target.

 

 

Tangerang is home to Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta international airport. The sprawling dormitory and industrial centre on the Western side of the Big Durian is not a leafy suburb. So when spray-painters turned their talents to a concrete underbridge they could only improve the streetscape.

 

To the usual gaudy Zap! Pow! unintelligible mess, someone imaginative added a head and shoulders of Widodo.  They included a red strip across his eyes carrying the words in English:  404: Not Found.

This is the error message which smacks screen jockeys when they click on a banned website. The    mistitled Information Ministry blocks thousands of links it doesn’t like, mostly on moral grounds but also political issues, particularly the secession movement in West Papua.

As political satire goes the graffiti ‘s a yawn, nowhere near The Insiders satire, too bland to stir a sophisticated audience.  That group doesn’t include Indonesian censors whose contrived outrage has helped a few otherwise forgettable kids gain national notoriety and fuel the debate about the Republic’s democracy.

 

The woebegones assumed the Tangerang artwork implies the boss of the world’s third-largest democracy currently facing the biggest pandemic crisis in the region is Missing In Action.  Scott Morrison has also been the butt of similar comments but knows any display of petulance would double the derision. 

 

Though the police ordered the cartoon to be scrubbed, pursuit of the ‘artists’ continues, much to the anger  of civil rights groups.  This has aroused intense comment escalating a basement mutter to a top floor debate on Widodo’s performance.

 

Murals in Indonesia usually show imagined scenes of red-eyed guerrillas fighting the returning Dutch colonialists during the 1945-49 revolutionary war.  Mythical characters from centuries-old stories are also favourites. 

 

Till now political comment has focussed on supporting Palestine independence and condemning West Papua separatists.  Shots at the Jakarta government have featured in social media, but Anon can often be traced and prosecuted.  Hooded figures daubing public property at night away from CCTV cameras are harder to catch. 

 

An enterprising / naughty screen printer who allegedly tried to sell T-shirts featuring the 404 line was forced by the police to apologise.

 

The right to freedom of expression and opinion is in the Constitution but try exercising that in a country where legal aid is almost invisible and the justice system notoriously corrupt.  Then there’s the paranoia.

 

Colonel John Haseman, a former US Defence and Army Attaché in Jakarta described Indonesia as ‘an inherently centrifugal country … whose leadership has always identified internal instability as the country's greatest security threat.’

 

During the 32-year rule of former general Soeharto, the taboo topics were encrypted as SARA (Suku, Agama, Ras, Antargolongan (ethnicity, religion, race and inter-cultural relationships).  ‘SARA conflicts were invariably dealt with quickly and ruthlessly,’ wrote Haseman.  ‘It was an item of faith that such violence was never to be tolerated and certainly not to be allowed to spread.’

 

Since Indonesia became a democracy this century the acronym has rarely featured – till now. Communications ministry staffer Faldo Maldini told the media that painting on walls without a permit violates the law.

 

‘There are several aspects that become a measure of restrictions on artistic expression.  National security, public safety and public order... do not spread lies, SARA, hate speech.’


Presidential COS Moeldoko reportedly said his boss was ‘open and never fazed by criticism’ but comment had to be framed by ‘eastern cultural traditions … civilised and in accordance with the right methods and the culture practised by the nation.

‘Chasing perpetrators doesn’t mean the State is acting repressively, because a summons by the
authorities can mean providing guidance so the perpetrator does not do bad things again.’

These ominous warnings re-enforce a widespread belief that Widodo has abandoned his man-of-the-people reformer image to embrace authoritarianism, running his palace – say the rumours - like an imperial court.

 

Freedom House ranks the Republic ‘partly free’, though rights are slipping.  ANU’s Edward Aspinall reckons that although Indonesia retains many aspects of democracy ‘Jokowi is leaning increasingly heavily on the military to get things done, and harassment of anti-government activists has increased.’

Natalie Sambhi of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies claimed Widodo ‘has presided over a period of democratic regression and increasing illiberalism.

‘During his tenure it appears that the military is gaining greater ground in the civil-military balance, marked by the appointment of several New Order (Soeharto era) figures in politics, increased reliance on the army’s territorial system, and a greater ability for retired officers to shape public discourse and policy.’

Scribblings on a concrete underpass would never have gained fame beyond the graffiti gang had the president’s protectors ignored the mild comment in an obscure spot.  Now they’ve ensured Widodo’s performance is getting international attention.

This month The Economist published an unflattering cartoon of the president calling him ‘Jokowho?’ claiming democracy is ‘increasingly enfeebled under his rule’. 

Last century the autocratic second president Soeharto would have banned the London-based magazine as he did with Newsweek, Time and the local Tempo when they were less than flattering,

 So far the seventh leader hasn’t gone that far. Watch this wall space.

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 19 September 2021: https://johnmenadue.com/in-indonesia-pray-dont-spray-papas-hurt/

 



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Monday, September 13, 2021

SORRY, GOTTA RUSH - BIGGER PLACES AWAIT

 

   Just passing by – got a mo?

 

marise payne peter dutton

Last week’s visit to Jakarta by Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton (above, image Facebook) was flagged as an ‘exclusive’ in an AFR curtain-raiser implying a renaissance in relations between Australia and Indonesia. That expectation came to naught.

Ahead of the ministers’ arrival two Centre for Policy Development authors on this website and The Jakarta Post offered the passengers some well-meaning though politically unrealistic ideas: ‘The time is right to invest more into the relationship.’ Correct, but as in any successful marriage, the process has to be continuous.

 ‘The stakes are high’. Correct if referring to decaying understandings on either side of the Arafura Sea. But apart from the universal plague and ceaseless South China Sea disputes, P and D saw no pressing issues other than the usual STDs – security, trade and defence.  Proof came with their reports.

A few legally unenforceable MOUs were updated during the one full-day visit, but nothing substantial apart from Dutton flying a test balloon about RI troops training in Australia.  The idea could well pop when human rights supporters take aim. Many are alarmed at the military’s heavy suppression of separatists in West Papua, a province closed to Western journalists.

Whoever dropped the story to the AFR forgot to provide an agenda or add this was a rest-and-refuel while heading to New Delhi, Seoul, Washington and New York for the important stuff.  Instead, it gushed claims of a ‘warm personal relationship’ between Payne and her counterpart Retno Marsudi.

If the alleged link between the ladies is commonplace there’d be no need for any rah-rah about their meeting, or for Dutton to claim the bond is ‘first-rate’.   It’s not, as successive Lowy surveys disclose.

Almost 21 months have passed since the last Australian ministers were in Indonesia.  Then it was Payne with Dutton’s predecessor Linda Reynolds, and the location was Bali, not Smog City. Indonesians haven’t taken to Zoom – they need to eyeball and judge close-up.

The promotion masked the embarrassing reality behind the hi-and-goodbye: The Australian Government takes the people next door, the country with more Muslims than anywhere else and the world’s third-largest democracy for granted.

That’s not only insulting – particularly to the protocol-obsessed Javanese - it’s also foolish.  Whatever goodwill may be in the joint account, history shows it could all be withdrawn with one misjudged action or crass comment. 

Melbourne academics Tim Lindsey and Dave McRae have written: ‘There are no two neighbouring countries anywhere in the world that are more different than Indonesia and Australia. They differ hugely in religion, language, culture, history, geography, race, economics, worldview and population (Indonesia, 270 million, Australia less than 10 per cent of that).

‘In fact, Indonesia and Australia have almost nothing in common other than the accident of geographic proximity. This makes their relationship turbulent, volatile and often unpredictable.’

If anyone in Canberra had noted this gritty assessment there’d be so many regular get-togethers we’d know Indonesians almost as well as Americans.

For all the misgivings it would be wrong not to recognise the importance of the P and D visit.  The AFR ran comments from experts welcoming the ministers’ ‘overdue’ trip and noting a lack of confabs means ‘Australia risks declining strategic access, influence and relevance.’

The pandemic has been a useful excuse to keep ministers away from the Big Durian, but that hasn’t stopped VIPs visiting the US, Japan, the UK and other countries where Covid threatens as much as it does in the archipelago.

The CPD suggestion that Afghan refugees in RI should be accepted by Australia is morally right – though doomed for base domestic reasons. Australia has banned asylum seekers registered in Indonesia after July 2014 from ever resettling Down Under.

Reversing this ignoble policy would be politically risky; there’ll be an election next year and the 20th anniversary of the Bali Bomb to remind voters of extremism in Indonesia.

 Indonesia isn’t party to the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees so leaves its 14,000 unwelcome guests to the UNHCR.  Integration of the Afghans would take a leader of courage, but President Joko Widodo is no Angela Merkel.  Nor is Scott Morrison.

In 2015 the German president defied doomsayers and pushed her country to keep its borders open.  The Republic now leads the European Union in taking applications for asylum seekers.

The idea of Canberra and Jakarta working to tackle the Myanmar coup is also meritorious but looking to next year’s Bali Process meeting for solutions is a mite optimistic. The informal, non-binding forum has a poor record, as the CPD’s CEO Travers McLeod knows well. After hundreds of asylum seekers drowned in 2015, he co-authored a paper on the tragedy focusing on the agency’s ineffectiveness.

 What might make the improvements the CPD seeks is to dilute the domestic anxieties which drive foreign policies.  Surveys in both countries reveal public ignorance, indifference and distrust as neither bothers to seriously tackle the negative perceptions and superficial media.

ABC Australia TV, which is supposed to be our showcase in Indonesia and elsewhere is an under-funded, uncoordinated and embarrassing mishmash of parochialism.  Al Jazeera is not threatened.

As widely reported our unis have just about abandoned teaching Indonesian language and studies.  This could be reversed if FM Payne pushed hard enough.

Sadly these serious concerns were not among her talking points.  If her 40-minute online speech reflected the closed-door meetings, it wasn’t worth the hype. The opportunities and urgency seen by others were invisible to the minister.

 The Senator reminded all of Australia’s help in combating Covid – we gave one million doses to a nation of 273 million - but found no time to address the CPD’s submission, substituting an obfuscation of clichés.  Playing fields – always level - got guernseys, but refugees were sidelined.

Indonesians wanting a road map to a real relationship will have to seek other ways. Useless waiting 21 months only to get another circular tour.

First published in Pearls and Irritations 13 September 2021: https://johnmenadue.com/our-two-ministers-just-passing-by-in-indonesia-got-a-mo/


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 11, 2021

ASEAN OVERDUE FOR RETIREMENT

 

 

INFECTED BY MALAISE          

ASEAN - Wikipedia

 

Why does Australia continue to waste diplomatic time with the ageing and impotent Association of Southeast Asian Nations? The question’s a regular, even asked in a book by former Indonesian Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa, Does ASEAN Matter?

He unconvincingly answered ‘Yes’, citing visa-free access and better trade opportunities for investors keen to tap a market of 662 million.  But that was before the pandemic accelerated a retreat into insularity and Myanmar became a military dictatorship killing citizens, untroubled by the entreaties of its horrified ASEAN colleagues.

What principled business would trade with this regime through an association which won’t expel its most evil member?

The realities of the collective’s inutility are now on show with the latest analysis by the Australia-ASEAN Chamber of Commerce (AustCham).  The advocacy group says its report arrives at a critical moment with a ‘general malaise’ apparent:

‘While this malaise was fermenting before the arrival of Covid-19, the pandemic has heightened the growing commercial concerns of Australian business … The bullishness that Australian businesses have long held about ASEAN’s commercial prospects now appears to be fading.’

ASEAN is supposed to be concerned with security and the ‘socio-cultural community’ though primarily an economic grouping.  This suggests an Asian version of the European Common Market, but that’s like comparing push carts with trucks.

Remembering how and why ASEAN was conceived also shows why it’s time to retire.

That won’t please Indonesians proud of helping create the cluster in 1967 with four near neighbours - Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore as an anti-communist block. The HQ is in Jakarta.

ASEAN is now ten strong and better known for what it doesn’t do than its successes. Two members are Red – Vietnam and Laos, with Cambodia sticking close to China.

There are four in some form of democracy (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines) two military dictatorships (Thailand and Myanmar) and one authoritarian sultanate (Brunei). Apart from the former Siam, all were once ruled by colonial powers. Now the only glue is recent history, geography and being Asian.  The language used in deliberations is English – the tongue of a former colonial power.

 

ASEAN: Sejarah, Negara Pendiri, Negara Anggota, hingga Tujuan Dibentuk

Occasionally it’s suggested Australia bids to up its status from ‘dialogue partner’ to a seat at the table. That idea is doomed as participants show no appetite for welcoming their southern neighbour, while proposers never muster enough energy to propel their agenda.

In 2018 President Joko Widodo responded to a journalist’s question saying Australian membership was a ‘good idea’.  Some thought this meant active encouragement.

Aaron Connelly, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Project tweeted: ‘Reality check: Australia has not been invited to join ASEAN, and will not be invited to join ASEAN in our lifetimes. Jokowi (Widodo) was offering a ‘Javanese response’, trying to be polite.’

ASEAN’s rules insist on non-interference in each other’s internal affairs so  statements after each forum are gems of polished verbosity disguising ineptitude.

 

Critics get squashed by charges of cultural racism, lectured that clumsy Westerners don’t appreciate the ‘ASEAN Way’ of quiet consultation and resolution by consensus, but some Asians are getting brave.

 

Indonesian diplomat Bahana Menggala Bara – who works in the Bulgarian Embassy - wrote in The Jakarta Post: ‘The ASEAN approach tends to focus on the process instead of the result... As a regional grouping, ASEAN has four major weaknesses: The tendency to prioritize national over regional interests, weak leadership, ineffective bureaucratic structure and purely emulating the Western approach.’

Worries about ASEAN’s values and virtues pre-date the plague and focus on protectionism. Tariffs and other barriers run counter to the free trade agreement signed between Australia and NZ with ASEAN in 2010.

Concerns also depend on which country is being discussed.  At one end of the scale is Myanmar writhing in the crisis following the February coup engineered by the military (Tatmadaw) alleging irregularities in the 2020 general election won by the National League for Democracy.

At the other extreme is stable Singapore, ranked second by the World Bank for ease of doing business (NZ is just ahead), and third globally in Transparency International’s anti-corruption index. A key issue in the Lion City is pedestrian, not ideological - the cost of office space.

ASEAN’s biggest economy is Indonesia.  Here the hazard list includes bureaucracy, weak law enforcement, complex tax systems, unfair business practices – and corruption, a sickness in other countries including Malaysia. 

The Republic’s TI Index position is 73, not a figure exciting confidence.  Other problems are costs of labour and access to skilled workers.

These are issues only the national government can fix.  President Widodo says he wants foreign money and has pushed through some economic reforms.  However, the determination to destroy graft has waned.

This month The Jakarta Post editorialised on the performance of the Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi   (Corruption Eradication Commission KPK) ‘once known as the most respected institution in the country’ but now suffering from a ‘tainted image’ and deepening ‘public distrust’.  The damnations follow exposure of alleged breaches of ethics codes by senior staff.

Indonesia’s so-called Omnibus Law cleans up some regulations hampering investments while the Job Creation Law is supposed to make hiring and firing easier.  However without an independent and vigorous authority overseeing the rules, in many cases it will be business as usual. Unions’ opposition to the legislation continues.

The AustCham report carried this caution: ‘Australia’s investment in and trade with Indonesia remains well below that of neighbouring, yet smaller, economies in Southeast Asia. While opportunities exist, Australian businesses need to assess their own capabilities and adapt them to effectively benefit from Indonesia’s market.’

The courageous focus on professional services, like education, health, the environment and marketing.  Most Australian businesses in the region have less than ten employees and an annual turnover below $1 million.  They also avoid trade and investment agreements.  In other words, they’re small shows and lone rangers.

AustCham: ‘The ASEAN Australian business environment has deteriorated over the last year, building on a trend first seen in the 2020 survey … the health of the ASEAN Australian business community is in decline.’

The 25-page report has much useful information and tries to see opportunities in the downturn, but overall it’s a depressing document.

The message to by-pass ASEAN isn’t new. Back in 2018 former FM Julie Bishop sent investors a nod-and-a-wink in a London speech damning ASEAN with faint praise according to Lowy Institute’s Euan Graham.

She described the association as ‘an example of regional multilateral institutions that do not impose obligations or commitments on … members who are free to negotiate their own arrangements.’

Australia doesn’t need to deal with ASEAN to access markets– an FTA was signed with Indonesia last year after a decade of haggling.  There are also bi-lateral agreements with Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia.

ASEAN is an old horse that’s been eating well in the pension paddock. He was sick long before 2019 and is getting worse.  Time for AustCham to call the vet.

First published in Australian Outlook, 10 September 2021:
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/asean-infected-by-malaise/

. Duncan Graham is an Australian journalist and author living in Indonesia.