A WARM SHOULDER FOR A RED JAB

 

The long Chinese march into Indonesia

Chinese officials in Australia rarely miss an opportunity to chill relations by turning down the thermostat on our democratic values and way of seeing the world.  Meanwhile, the Middle Kingdom’s men in Jakarta are playing a long and warming game.

Johns Hopkins University tracking data reports more than 1.4 million coronavirus cases and 38,000 deaths in Indonesia.  These are widely considered to be underestimates as testing isn’t free and post mortems rare.

There’s a small plus.   Despite an early sluggish response to the virus, the vaccination programme is moving faster than its Western neighbour. The unabating anti-Communist Indonesians with their sleeves rolled up seem unconcerned the inoculant is politically Red. So far about four million have had their first shot and around 1.5 million needle two.

Sinovac and Sinopharm may not be infused with hypnotics to make patients speak Mandarin, but the vaccines are carrying unsubtle messages. Reinforcing these has been China’s ambassador to ASEAN Deng Xijun, a 38-year veteran of multiple postings in the region.

Australia’s equivalent is Will Nankervis.  Soon after his appointment last October he proved his Canberra credentials with an anodyne masterpiece:  ‘Australia will continue to actively support ASEAN to play a central role in addressing the challenges facing the region... with significant new programs and a new platform for leader-level engagement, coupled with our abiding, deep commitment to ASEAN and its architecture.’  

Architecture?  This impotent outdated group of ten misfits couldn’t agree on the colour of a blueprint. No specifics from Mr N, no dollars, no footage of refrigerated containers rolling out of Airbus 380 cargo holds for the nightly news.

Deng Xijun believes in more than pictures, reminding the world’s third-largest democracy of his authoritarian state’s generosity.  Donating vaccines is ‘writing a new chapter of close anti-pandemic cooperation.’

Three million ready-to-jabs, one million ‘semifinished vaccines’ and 35 million doses of bulk vaccines have been flown in from Beijing along with excess publicity.  

Writing in The Jakarta Post, Deng Xijun said that when his country ‘was in the darkest moments of its struggle with the virus early last year, the governments and people of ASEAN countries offered China timely, valuable and selfless support and assistance.  

‘Right after China brought the domestic situation under control, China returned the favour to meet the most urgent needs of ASEAN. 

‘China has provided a great number of emergency medical supplies to ASEAN, sent multiple medical expert teams to several ASEAN countries and assisted several ASEAN member states in building virus-testing labs.’ 

In case cynics might think this assistance is not altogether driven by altruism he added:  

‘China doesn’t have any geopolitical agenda, vie for any economic gains or attach any political conditions. The only thing that is on China’s mind is to make the vaccines a public good that is accessible and affordable.’ 

The love-in follows a senior Indonesian minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, a close confidant of President Joko Widodo, talking to China’s FM Wang Yi about handling the pandemic. They decided Indonesia should be the distribution hub in Southeast Asia.

In The Conversation, UK-educated international relations lecturer Dr Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat suggested Sino-Indo co-operation benefits both parties.  

‘On one hand, China will have Indonesia with its 270 million population as a testing ground for its Covid-19 vaccines and, at the same time secure access to the Southeast Asian market.’ 

Indonesia is being rewarded for its mateship. No bulk-carrier stand-offs outside Guangzhou while trade ministry calls go unanswered. Last year the world’s largest thermal coal exporter had its ships waved straight into waiting berths to unload 407 million tonnes when the target was 400.

So what are we doing to enhance our standing with nation number four on the big population ladder?  As Aussies know well, our most important future relationship is with the Republic - a message hammered by every successive leader for the past 30 years.  That’s also the time China and ASEAN have been together since starting ‘dialogues’. 

In mid-2020 Australia gave AUD 6.2 million to WHO to ‘strengthen Indonesia’s laboratories, improve the way Indonesia collects and uses health information and help to protect patients and health workers at health facilities’.  

We’ve also offered an AUD 1.5 billion loan to be repaid across 15 years ‘to support Indonesia’s budget’ as it hurtles into recession, the first since 1999.  

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the advance ‘builds on our highly valued economic relationship and a strong record of bilateral cooperation,’ but academics haven’t been impressed.  Some told the ABC the money was ‘insignificant in the overall scheme of things ... no more than a rounding error in government spending’. 

Other economists claimed it was a ‘symbolic gesture' to calm investors and remind the region us Ozzies are good guys.  One stat puts it in perspective: The Indonesian government has to conjure up AUD 12 billion a month just to handle the pandemic’s impact.

 

Minister Pandjaitan hasn’t been a lone emissary to the Asian imperium.  FM Retno Marsudi, state-owned enterprises minister Erick Thohir, and defence minister Prabowo Subianto have also made the pilgrimage north.  If this phalanx of power has flown south on similar missions they’ve kept the itineraries secret.  What we do know is that their Australian counterparts haven’t made it to Jakarta.

Fortunately Scott Morrison did get to the world’s most populous Muslim nation for one day in 2018.  This was enough time to pronounce the two nations are ‘not just close neighbours — but great friends.’

In the fight against the plague, it might be more accurate to suggest the PM’s words refer to a relationship elsewhere.  NZ maybe? 

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 15 March 2021:  https://johnmenadue.com/duncan-graham-the-long-chinese-march-into-indonesia-with-vaccines/

 

 

 

NOT ALL EYES ON THE US

 

 

               While the US flounders, China plants

Of all the corroded clichés used in reporting the US election, the most rusty claimed ‘the whole world was watching.’

It wasn’t in the Indonesian streets where the concerns were more parochial:  Rooves springing wet-season leaks, the lack of imported fruit (there are allegedly some rotten deals involving licences and preferred traders starving suppliers), and problems with the government’s health insurance policy under assault by the industry.

But nor was Trump v Biden on the agenda at the top end of town, even on poll eve. While the Anglosphere focussed on the US chaos which purports to be democracy in action, China was busy squirreling away, building   its influence in Southeast Asia.

On 2 November the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia ran a two-hour Virtual Jakarta Forum on ASEAN-China Relations 2020.  The plan was to ‘map a way forward for ASEAN-China economic cooperation towards a sustainable, innovative, and resilient growth in the region.’ 

That’s normally the job of sequestered diplomats, not an NGO driving policy, but the FPCI is becoming Indonesia’s de-facto Kemlu - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – led by the pedestrian Retno Marsudi, a former ambassador to the Netherlands.

Dr Dino (left) and FM Retno (pic Erlinawati Graham).  

 

There were a couple of offhand comments about the US at the forum, but otherwise the focus was on a near future where China is deeply involved in the region’s trade, aid, finance – and almost every other facet of society.  This included paying with rupiah and renminbi rather than US dollars.

On 14 November the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is expected to be signed. This is a proposed free trade agreement between ASEAN’s ten members with five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.

The world’s largest democracy was originally involved but pulled out last November over fears the ‘Made in India’ programme would be neutered by the deal, and its generic medicine manufactures hit by copyright rules. Despite this absence, the remaining 15 countries carry 30 per cent of the world's population and close to 30 per cent of its GDP.

It was clear from comments at the FPCI forum that China sees the RCEP as a major opportunity to expand and bed-down its interests in Southeast Asia, while other speakers seemed resigned.  The pragmatists recognise Indonesia’s trade and aid ties with Beijing are pushing the world’s third-largest democracy away from Washington.  According to Indonesia’s Finance Ministry, the nation’s debt to China is AUD 25.2 billion.

Although negotiations have dragged on for eight years the RCEP has rarely featured in the Australian mainstream media. The Asian press has been reporting ‘some key players...especially Japan and Australia (have) nagging concerns about a pact in which China's presence looms ever larger.’

Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has been quoted as saying worsening diplomatic ties between China and Australia would not get in the way of the progress of the RCEP.

Among the 200 plus participants and onlookers at the FPCI forum were diplomats and scholars from Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.  Australia was not represented. 

Deng Xijun, China’s Ambassador to ASEAN effused about the shift from ‘pandemic control to economic recovery’, the ‘stability of the region’ and the roles his country would take if and when Covid-19 retreats.

These included the manufacture and distribution of a Chinese vaccine should one become available, the extension of the Belt and Road programme of road, rail and port expansion, and improvements in the supply chain, including more direct flights from Chinese cities to the archipelago.

‘We share the Asian values of solidarity and collaboration,’ he said.  Decoded this means the Chinese have the language, deep contacts and subtle skills in handling obstructive bureaucrats that Westerners lack or can’t access.

China is Indonesia’s top trading partner, taking raw materials, mainly coal.  Former Indonesian trade minister Gita Wirjawan, who was educated at Harvard, told the forum that the US had been ‘disingenuous and disrespectful’ in its approach to global warming concerns.

These exports may suffer if China goes ahead with its emissions-reduction programme, leaving Indonesia with limited markets for its low-grade coal.  About 80 per cent of production is exported.
 
As an NGO the FPCI is rapidly becoming the leading initiator of accessible and informed comment on international affairs.  It’s already eclipsing the Centre for Strategic and International Studies which claims to be Indonesia’s leading think tank on social, international, political and economical issues.

The CSIS was founded in 1971 by a group of mainly Catholic fervent anti-Communist Chinese businessmen and generals and advised the despotic second president Soeharto on foreign affairs until the 1980s.  It has since tried to reshape itself as mildly liberal and inclusive, though still tainted by its partisan past.

So far the FPCI does not appear to be in any party’s pockets, though its founder, former Ambassador to the US Dr Dino Patti Djalal, made a lukewarm bid for the presidency as an independent in 2014.  He was educated at the left-leaning London School of Economics and was spokesman for the nation’s sixth president (2004-2014), former General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, leader of Partai Demokrat.

The FPCI’s 14 ‘partners’ includes the embassies of Australia, Denmark, the EU, Netherlands and Japan and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Foreign Affairs has long been seen as an esoteric discipline accessible only to high-born Francophones.  (Djalal’s dad Hasjim Djalal is a former Indonesian Ambassador to Germany, Canada and the UN.)  The FPCI is making it more democratic, and before the pandemic drew hundreds of young people to its big free events.

It says its ‘mission is to promote and shape positive Indonesian internationalism throughout the nation and to the world.

‘We want to bring foreign policy to the grassroots, and to provide a dynamic meeting point where everyone interact as equals. We aim to be an independent, credible voice for Indonesia’s foreign policy.’  It’s certainly seen by Beijing as the place to plant ideas knowing they’ll get propagated.  .

 First published in Pearls and Irritations 6 November 2020:  https://johnmenadue.com/while-the-us-flounders-china-plants/