DON'T READ IF YOU'RE HAPPY WITH THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA

SMALL, SMART AND STRUGGLING                  

Where’s the torrent of cash expected to flow from Google, Meta and other overseas behemoths plundering Ozzie journalism?  Here’s the latest handwringing.

Three years ago more than 80 per cent of readers said they hadn’t used print media to get a news fix.  Hadn’t or couldn’t? 

The Melbourne-based NGO Public Interest Journalism Initiative reckons it knows of “166 news outlet closures” across the past five years.

The scorched mediascape is being colonised by Quixotes, aka altruists, motivated by the frustration felt from living in a society where mass communication  concentration levels are "amongst the highest in the world."

The battlers are listed by compendium True North as Australia’s Independent New Media Publishers. 

The catalogue of 65 titles is incomplete and needs scrutiny. Absent are the uni newsletters employing editors; Indonesia at Melbourne and New Mandala (ANU) are free and cover serious affairs.

A few shows are vanity outlets for their flopabout founders. The personal pronoun gets sweaty from  excess workouts.  Most have a drum to beat; likewise, Murdoch.  He plays on the right.

Outfits such as The Koori Mail are specialist; others are satirical like The Shovel.  Editors no longer sit in glass cubes overlooking newsrooms big as aircraft hangars.  The top desk is now more likely to be a coffee-stained kitchen table with a laptop, smartphone and an indifferent pussycat.

The skills needed for startups can be gleaned online by companies offering templates and links. Substack takes ten per cent of readers’ subs but writers can create free-use websites.

Costs are still an impost if design professionals are used. A few like Michael West Media hire a video whizz to polish presentations; others rely on the standalone skills of wordsmiths. 

These tend to be printaholics - like Jack Waterford, former editor of The Canberra Times and still a contributor, also a Pearls and Irritations regular pricking the capital bubble.

Not all are straining to stop the presses that are closing anyway.  Veteran foreign correspondent Hugh Lunn’s folksy recollections in Over the Top are delights to sample, not challenges to arouse.

All sites have one thing in common – begging, though they call it appealing.

The rivers of gold that irrigated the legacy media are running dry.  Some newbies use aridity as a positive – 'see, no ads', reasoning that screaming retailers repel serious readers.

There are few philanthropists in the paddock:  Three years ago, miner Andrew Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation promised to help 18 small publishers secure licensing deals with Google and Facebook. 

What’s happened?  Best check the tailings dump as the foundation hasn’t responded to an update request.

Backing small publishers is risky as any journalist might reveal a discomforting morsel and turn a donor from generosity to petulance.  Gina Rinehart’s $14 million support for Netball Australia was bounced out of court when some players thought her company’s logo linked them to her late father Lang Hancock’s alleged racism.

It’s not just the miffed that close off with a can-rattle;  The Guardian which pays its UK editor-in-chief Katharine Viner almost a million dollars a year, pleads daily for benefactors, reminding readers there’s currently no paywall or ads.

At the mid-level is The Conversation which offers salaried academics an unpaid forum without waiting months for a journal peer-review.

Erudition doesn’t equal clarity.  Having a PhDs is no qualification for writing a pithy line plebs can understand at first reading.  The Conversation says it employs 150 full-time scribes (2020 figures) to make the abstruse palatable - their efforts apparently reaching 38 million online users. 

Impressive, but about half the claimed viewership for Murdoch’s Fox News where bottom feeders graze on their prejudices – no thinking required.

The Conversation uses the Creative Commons allowing authors’ work to be republished free if acknowledged. Some research has helped set the national agenda, usually through ABC follow-ups.

The website’s owner is a registered charity and last year said it spent $7.87 million.  Every taxation time it bombards readers for more and more money. It was launched in Oz in 2011 and has become an intellectual export, online in the US, UK, Brazil, Canada, France, NZ, Spain and Indonesia.

In the archipelago The Conversation wants to be the “leading media platform that empowers Indonesian researchers, academics and experts to collaborate, spread knowledge, communicate information and educate the younger generation.”

Here some quality control is needed when a professor from the prestigious Universitas Indonesia can get a run alongside a teacher at an obscure private uni. There are almost 3,000 in this category against 184 listed as public.

Last year The Conversation published more than 1,000 articles in Indonesia reaching an estimated six million. That’s wholesome in a nation where only one in a thousand is reported to be an “avid reader”.

Australian are attached to the freebies.  Sites like Crikey bait readers by offering an opening par or two as an entrée, then demand a credit card number for the full meal that may be on the ABC’s menu.

Press Reader offers free newspaper access to members of community libraries, a digital continuation of last century’s public reading room.  Only The Australian and The Guardian remain – the rest have pulled out, indifferent to the needs of the curious poor.

To shift society the independents need to offer substance, reads like this unforgettable obituary by Pulitzer Prize winner Chris Hedges of American HR advocate  Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi slain by a sniper in the West Bank.

Unlike The Weekend Australian’s polemic it doesn’t simplify the conflict as “a fight between good and evil” but a complex, compound, wretched, political and personal tragedy.

The US alternative media is way ahead with subscribers and unapologetic advocacy. The 1440 digest site claims 3.9 million “intellectually curious readers”.

The Constitution’s First Amendment helps shield writers from litigious lawyers and their big paymasters– a species much feared by small Australian publishers with outworn credit cards.

The US website on politics and war Drop Site spells out the issue: “Investigative journalism is expensive … digital ad revenue alone can’t sustain the slow boring of investigative work. It can only be supported by people who insist that it exist.”  That’s not Google and Meta.

DisclosurFirst published in Pearls & Irritations, 17 October 2024: anggrek​

https://johnmenadue.com/small-smart-and-struggling/

THIS GEN GAP IS TOO WIDE FOR COMFORT

 

CAN THIS ODD COUPLE SURVIVE?                  

Before debating with Democrat VP candidate Tim Walz, the Republican nominee JD Vance  said the contestants’  views matter little because voters go for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.

That may be right in the US, though not in Indonesia.

This is anecdotal but when contacts blushingly admit to voting for cashiered former general and alleged human rights abuser Prabowo Subianto, they reason by adding they wanted Gibran Rakabuming.

Although the Constitution says VPs are the spare tyre, in reality they’ve been proxies for a voter bloc.  The current VP Ma’ruf Amin, 81, was an esteemed Muslim cleric selected as a crutch when in 2019 President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s advisors detected a religious limp.

This year the age has dropped. In the February poll the wrinkle-free 37-year-old eldest son of once hyper-popular Jokowi became the bait to snare new gen voters the oldies can’t understand.  He spoke prokem (Javanese street slang) looked fresh, seemed cool.

In brief, someone young electors found relatable. 

Prabowo, the plump pensioner atop the ticket is already on borrowed time, five years beyond the average life expectancy for Indonesian men.

During the campaign he tried to appeal to teens with hair dye, silly dances and adopting a cuddly cartoon character; it looked forced, flawed and squirmingly embarrassing.

Odd couples can sometimes thrive, though difficulties expand when each party comes from a different background.

Gibran, a small-town mayor, said little during the campaign, as the label ‘son of Jokowi’ was enough. Voters backed him not for his achievements but as a drop site for their expectations.  A prime prayer from the electorate has been for politics without corruption.

A tough call: Indonesia ranks 89 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index.  One estimate reckons it’ll take a century of reform before the Republic sheds the curse, and that’s going to need brave and committed leaders. They’ve yet to appear.  

Over half the 205 million registered electors this year were millennials (born in the 1990s) and Gen Zs (created this century). 

First time voters knew little of the autocratic Orde Baru (New Order) administration of the late President Soeharto – 32 years of repression. But his one-time son-in-law Prabowo was happily embedded in that era and appears to want it returned.

Gibran couldn’t muster a backstory in the pesantren - Islamic boarding schools that are supposed to instil morality - or the military that reckons it’s the custodian of national duty.   Instead, like a middle-class lad, he’d been schooled in Singapore learning business management and English.

Dad suggested he take over flogging furniture – but the scion wanted to sit on his own stool.  His Chilli Pari catering service rapidly garnered more than AUD 2.2 million, exceeding the value of Papa’s trade.

Perhaps this displays great business acumen though the mean-spirited suggested he profited by association – a nepo baby.

 When Jokowi won the 2014 election, family photos showed Gibran looking surly, more like a petulant teen than a mid-20s adult.  At the time he professed disinterest in politics.

When Gibran did venture a public opinion he got his lips burned by suggesting pregnant women  swig sulphuric acid to prevent stunted babies.  He meant folic acid.

We know he likes soccer (so does almost every man in Indonesia) and supports Barcelona – but that's the limit of the profundities he’ll share.

Like most Indonesians Jokowi’s son played with social media, allegedly using the alias Fufufafa. Long before he became VP-in-waiting, the account was posting unfavourable comments about his Dad’s rival.

The slanders from Prabowo’s camp included claims that Jokowi was secretly a Christian and his father a Communist.

Fufufafa  hit back, reportedly writing:  "Soldiers are dismissed, divorced, children are waving, supporters are radical, coalition parties do not support all out."  This cryptic sentence is supposed to refer to Prabowo’s past.

He was cashiered in 1998 and divorced from Soeharto’s daughter Titiek the same year.  Their only son Didit Hediprasetyo, 40, is a fashion designer in Europe and whispered to be gay.  Populist Indonesian politicians have been urging for laws against homosexuality.

Prabowo has stayed single and seems indifferent to women so there’s no First Lady – a great disappointment in a culture where family loves and feuds are essentials in everyday chat.

By contrast Gibran married local Catholic Selvi Ananda who renounced her faith to marry.  They have two kids.  Attempts by your correspondent to interview the family have been ignored.

The other confusing comments in the online posting are interpreted as references to Prabowo getting Islamic groups to back his earlier campaigns; that support wasn’t sought this year.

Gibran has appeared to deny ownership of the Fufufafa account and tried to flick away the controversy, but the Twittersphere is not so simply dusted.  When Soeharto was boss public critics of the government feared a door-kick by police or army boots.

Not so easy now when the anonymous publishers of scuttlebutt thrive on social media.  So Prabowo has dashed back to his mentor's policies by scrapping Jokowi’s impromptu media conferences. 

There'll be occasional formal events where the prez will select approved questions from chosen reps of partisan publishers.

Prabowo’s spokesperson Hasan Nasbi explained the new system is part of “a greater scheme to limit access provided to journalists ,,, and that the president-elect would only make official statements when necessary.

"For instance, if the President is on a visit to a wet market and he is subjected to questions from reporters, he may not be ready with an answer. We don't want to create confusion."

Hasan also said his boss would need to prepare responses and that he’d only “speak to the press in routine press briefings and only on matters that have been confirmed.”

Maybe the VP is happy with this deal because he’s disclosed little and seems to have an ideology of the same magnitude.  Easier to tag along for the fame and business boost and hope the old fella doesn’t cark it in the next five years.

There’s no marshal’s baton in this neophyte’s knapsack.  Nor any spray can of charisma.

He once stood up to his gentle Dad.  Can he do the same with his fearsome boss?  Will he dare? 

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 10 September 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/can-this-odd-couple-survive/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDONESIA’S MEDDLESOME PRIEST PASSES                         Duncan Graham

(Credit:  Erlinawati Graham)

 

“Religion is being used as an instrument of power in Indonesia, manipulated by the State and big business. Politicians are continuing to use religion for their own ends and consequently risking harmony.”

The words are those of Antonius Benny Susetyo best known as Romo (Father) Benny and probably the most recognisable Catholic priest in Muslim-majority Indonesia. He was frequently on TV vigorously advocating rational inquiry and pluralism, and in demand for public debates.

In one campaign he unsuccessfully supported scrapping religious affiliation from ID cards, later telling this writer: “It will be some time before Indonesians can accept the idea that the state and religion should be divorced.

"The important things are not the number of places of worship, but the creation of a life of togetherness. We have to become better educated and intellectually more mature.”

The stirring has stopped: The prominent social activist died last week aged 55 from complications with diabetes leaving a gulf in the never-ending debate about religions in the Republic.

 Indonesia’s leading daily Kompas headlined his passing  by describing him as the ‘Pro Common People Clergyman and Critic of the Catholic Church’. The hundreds of wreaths came from all religions and political leaders, including President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.

Benny fell ill while lecturing in Pontianak, the capital of West Kalimantan.  His job was Stafsus (special staff) with the national Badan Pembinaan Ideologi Pancasila (Pancasila Ideology Development Agency. His topic was The Fragility of Ethics.

Founding president Soekarno helped create Pancasila (five principles) to counter radicals' demands that the new nation be a theocracy.

The tenets are belief in the one and only God, a just and civilized humanity, the unity of the Republic, democracy led by wisdom in deliberation / representation, and social justice for all.

About three per cent of the population (less than 9 million) is Catholic with the faith dominant only in Flores and other Eastern Islands.  Its temporal work includes non-discriminatory hospitals, schools and universities.

Benny has not been apolitical, favouring the Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (Democratic Party of Struggle – PDI-P) led by fifth President Megawati Soekarnoputri (2001-2004).

His brother Andreas is a member of the Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (House of Reps) with the PDI-P. It holds most seats but doesn't govern. Gerindra, run by president-elect Prabowo Subianto has formed a majority coalition and will take office on 20 October,

Benny was buried in Malang, East Java where he was born and educated in theology and philosophy.  After graduating, the Church tasked him to seek common ground with Muslims.

His mission was rapidly tested by fire – literally, as mobs started fighting non-Muslims and torching churches in the chaos following Soeharto quitting office,

A decade ago he was interviewed by this journalist. There’s no evidence Benny shifted his philosophies since, though last year he retired from diocesan duties to focus on advocacy.

 It’s a priest’s calling to be concerned with souls, to teach the Gospel.  How do you justify your involvement in politics?

“A priest’s job is also to speak out on issues concerning the people’s welfare, morality and ethics, to be concerned for humanity, peace and justice. That’s the teaching of Catholicism; these are the values of all religions.”

Brother Andreas

Are you in danger of putting off Muslim voters by expecting Protestants and Catholics to vote for Jokowi (then the PDI-P candidate)?

“I’m not trying to cause divisions and wish religion wasn’t part of politics.  Jesus was a politician because he advocated for the poor and weak against the rulers – but he wasn’t a member of a political party.

“Many religious people don’t understand politics, so need information, to have issues explained. That’s my role. A priest must also follow his conscience.”

Has that got you into strife?

“With a few, though not the Vatican. Pope Francis has spoken out against inequalities caused by bad economic policies.”

(In 2008 Benny was bashed by thugs believed to be from the radical Front Pembela Islam (Islamic Defenders’ Front) attacking peace marchers in central Jakarta. He spent five days in a Singapore hospital.

The Christian press claimed Benny was the victim of a planned assault by fundamentalists trying to fracture Indonesian pluralism. The victim said he didn’t know why he was bashed and had forgiven his assailants. “Maybe they were after my handphone,” he joked.

Isn’t this all academic?  Non-Muslims are such a small minority with little influence.

“Every non-Muslim is still part of our Republic. Everyone has influence, whoever they are, irrespective of their religion.”

In the UK you’ve spoken on ‘Pluralism in Peril in Indonesia’. What do you mean?

“All the evidence shows intolerance is growing and spreading beyond the original pockets.

 What do you expect from the next president?

“To stamp out corruption, that’s number one. He should uphold Pancasila and strengthen the rule of law. He must stop the abuse of power and care for the poor.” 

 Many argue Indonesia needs a strong leader so the president should be a military man.

“The Indonesian people don’t need a dictator. We want honest leaders with rational policies, not populist slogans. If you interview me in five years, I hope that religious issues won’t be part of the campaign.”

How do you feel about the future of democracy in Indonesia?

“Optimistic if the people are rational in their approach to politics, but not if we continue following the culture of the elite.

"We need a new paradigm for religious teaching that will interpret the texts in accordance with modern usage.

"Take off your exclusive glasses and start looking at the world in an inclusive way. The dialogue must be about life. The challenge for religion is to take sides with the downtrodden, the poor, migrant workers – and advocate on their behalf.

"Plurality should be the main issue in the development of our national character."

First published in Indonesia at Melbourne, 8 October 2024:

https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/obituary-romo-benny-indonesias-meddlesome-priest-dies-at-55/

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DON'T FEAR JOURNOS - THEIR ONLY WEAPONS ARE WORDS

  

LIKE KNIVES, WORDS WOUND. BEST BAN THEIR USE                    

To call a former general anywhere a coward would be a great insult and might push her or him into taking revenge. 

So let’s observe from afar that disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s next president after inauguration on 20 October, seems frightened. Not of invaders - he’s never met any - but unarmed local professionals doing their job.

Prabowo’s imagined foe is the labourers in the fourth estate, working alongside the legislature, executive and judiciary to hold politicians accountable.  Or as Okkers  say, “keep the bastards honest.”

Journalists don’t just believe in freedom – we’re its custodians.

Prabowo claims he’s into democracy yet loathes reporters.  He’s told rallies that journos want to manipulate democracy and aren’t to be trusted.

The Polish-British writer Joseph Conrad (Heart of Darkness) offered a more respectful view:  "My task, which I am trying to achieve is, by the power of the written word, to make you hear, to make you feel-- it is, before all, to make you see."

Prabowo won’t experience these emotions because he’s put himself in quarantine; he’s closing the impromptu press conferences the current civilian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo has been using to reach the people.

Instead, there'll be occasional formal events where Prabowo will select approved questions from chosen reps of partisan publishers.  Nothing spontaneous. AI could be used - and maybe will.

His spokesperson Hasan Nasbi has told the media the shut-out is part of “a greater scheme to limit access provided to journalists ,,, and that the president-elect would only make official statements when necessary.

"For instance, if the President is on a visit to a wet market and he is subjected to questions from reporters, he may not be ready with an answer. We don't want to create confusion."

Correct – it would be dangerous anywhere to confuse a faction of politicians with a shiver of sharks.

Hasan also said his boss would need to prepare responses and that he’d only “speak to the press in routine press briefings and only on matters that have been confirmed.”

That’s equally reasonable: A seasoned commander leading troops in bitter guerilla wars in East Timor and West Papua that have reportedly taken thousands of lives would obviously fumble curveballs. 

Reporters’ camcorders and notebooks are no physical threat to the one-time commander of special forces fighting fellow Indonesians last century.

Even if an unhinged imposter tried to stab the 73-year-old with a ballpoint pen the prez’s safari suit would deflect the thrusting plastic.  No black ink would stain the khaki.  No fear here.

The terror is how skilled wordsmiths might spear through the lies, distractions and obfuscations to reveal what manner of man will lead the world’s fourth most populous nation.

Historians think studying the past is essential in considering the future and preventing repeats. So do scribes.

Australian researcher Pat Walsh has asked whether Prabowo is  “fit and proper” to run the world’s third largest democracy – even though he’s been formidably endorsed by 58.6 per cent of voters in the three-way February poll. 

The turnout was almost 82 per cent - 66 per cent in the US in 2020. Voting is not compulsory.

Walsh still answers – “no”.  Young electors knew little of the candidate’s past; they were amused by a harmless grandpa cartoon image suggesting fun times ahead. 

More significantly he was endorsed by the once popular Jokowi whose son Gibran Rakabuming, 37, has become VP in a deal so dirty Machiavelli would have sent a smiley emoji.

Unreal, according to award-winning American investigative journalist Allan Nairn, who once interviewed Prabowo, labelling him as “the worst of the massacre generals, and the closest US protege in the Indonesian military.

“He’s still someone who imagines himself in the role of the fascist dictator. There’s every reason to think that he will … go after his opponents massively.”

He has the dough and clout to do that: During his exile, he started businesses in Indonesia with the help of his US dollar-billionaire younger brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

A decade ago Prabowo’s estimated wealth was US$140 million plus assets in 26 companies, mainly mining and plantations. His backers own five top TV stations reaching more than 40 per cent of viewers.

Last century second president Soeharto ran a 32-year military-backed autocracy (Orde Baru – New Order) that violently crushed independence movements.  Prabowo was his muscle and his son-in-law through a failed marriage to the boss’s daughter Siti.

Does he have blood on his hands? That’s a robust reporter’s question to any leader allegedly involved in human rights abuses.  Prabowo rubbishes the allegations although they were credible enough for Washington and Canberra to deny visas for many years.

Another one, Sir: Where are the 13 pro-democracy students your troops kidnapped in 1998?  Their families demonstrate every Thursday in Jakarta wanting to know, but no one tells.

Finally, to get the record straight: You’ve never been charged in court but why were you cashiered in 1998 and why did you run away and hide in Jordan for eight years?

Thank you, Sir; apologies if our questions got you trembling.

The inquirers take no position – they just want answers from whoever knows the truth. The chance of getting honest responses diminishes daily along the road to Palace propaganda and a retreat from the free world.

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 First published in Independent Australia, 3 October 2024: 

https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/president-prabowo-faces-new-nemesis-press-accountability,19031

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDONESIA'S CURSE - THE KKN GORGONS

 

LOOMING NOW: THE AGE OF UNCERTAINTY

There’ll soon be a new leader next door – ageing hardliner Prabowo Subianto.  He’s           Indonesia’s dark lord with a worrying past of alleged human rights abuses, yet overwhelmingly elected in the February national poll.  He’ll take over on 20 October.

Some expect the change from the calming Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo to be seamless.  Others fear his tough guy successor will drive out democracy from the world’s fourth most populous     nation and return to a military-led autocracy – as in last century.

What will Jokowi hand-over after two five-year terms in power? Some differences are huge,

A trip between the East Java capital Surabaya and the province’s major hill city Malang through congested villages was once a five-hour ordeal.  Now the 80-kilometre journey on a toll road takes about an hour, thanks to Pak Infrastruktur.

Since 2014 Jokowi's government put down 2,700 km of bitumen at a dazzling pace using 24/7 Chinese labour and loans; the present debt is reportedly US$27.5 billion.

Projects involving national highways, village roads, airports and dams were all                transformative, speeding trade.  During his decade the population grew by 27 million.  The natural increase matches the number of people living in Australia.

Jokowi in a hard hat symbolised a shovelling aside of the avalanches of blocking bureaucracy.  He dug through by treating the government like a business and finding big backers, mainly from Beijing.

Another achievement already introduced but rapidly enlarged is the national insurance health system.  It has serious flaws as the industry exploits its many weaknesses, but it remains an essential helping ease worries about paying for medical care.

Then came nationalism.  Jokowi’s government peacefully negotiated control of the huge gold and copper Freeport mine in West Papua from the US owners and now has 51 per cent of the company.

Foreign affairs was left to career diplomat Retno Marsudi, a lady of no great achievements.  She’s off to the UN so Prabowo has to find another FM, hopefully a civilian.

All good - but Jokowi’s legacy has been clawed by Indonesia’s Gorgons – Korupsi, Kolusi, Nepotisme.

For Jokowi did dirty deals to keep his family in power ripping his reputation as humble Mr Clean  from a riverside mudbank shack.  His PR story claims he’s a clever climber who got to the top without carrying a rifle or wearing Muslim robes. Nor was he carrying the genes of a feudal Sultanate.

 What he did have then and now is a mentor – US educated former four-star general turned  businessman and prominent Protestant Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, 77.

Officially he’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment but on the street he’s Prince Regent and Lord Luhut, titles that infuriate.  He sued two sniggers for defamation and lost.

Before Jokowi became a poli he partnered with Luhut in a furniture export deal. The younger man got into public life through the mayoralty of the small Central Java city of Solo, then as governor of Jakarta.

Jokowi was seen as pure Javanese, socially low key and physically slim; an ideal model for the nation’s marvellous batik shirts, but insufficiently sinewy to wear the uniform of office. His rank was popularity and here he had five stars.

In 2015 he took then-PM Malcolm Turnbull on a blusukan (walkabout) of public markets.  That happy scene is for the archives.  Today Prabowo is into media control.  He waves from jeeps and shuns the media apart from one awkward tussle with Al Jazeera.

There’ll be little access for independent journos ahead, so anticipate few facts but many rumours.

Only skilled cultural anthropologists noted the kid from the kampung was enigmatic and surreptitiously devious, offering ambiguous “why not?” answers to journo’s questions.

Like Icarus he forgot the altimeter.  Denied under the Constitution to extend his stay he used his brother-in-law, a Supreme Court judge to bypass age rules.  That let his eldest son Gibran stand for office and win the vice presidency.  Jokowi’s cleanskin reputation was flayed nationally - likewise his lad’s.

Old social media accounts allegedly published by Gibran rubbishing Prabowo during his earlier tries for the top job have been dismissed as fakes, but the damaging scuttlebutt has spread.

Prabowo is certainly a worry, and not just to his sidekick.   Australian researcher of military crimes in East Timor Pat Walsh has asked if he’s a “fit and proper person” to be president, detailing the commander’s actions in the former Indonesian province. Walsh concluded “no”.

In 1998 Prabowo was cashiered for disobeying orders. That was amid the revolution which saw the authoritarian Soeharto quit the presidency after 32 years of despotic rule.

Prabowo fled to exile in Jordan following his divorce from Soeharto's daughter Siti. He publicly returned in 2008 after his former father-in-law died but failed to get into politics via  any established organisation.

So he started Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement), now the third largest party. Calling it right-wing is too simplistic. It’s certainly bombastically nationalistic and carries a whiff of fascism along with contradictory social benefit programmes like free lunches for school kids.

Once hostile minor parties are now clamouring to bed down in Prabowo’s coalition and suckle the teats of power leaving the government to face no opposition.

Helped by a mainly partisan media Prabowo’s people have been erasing mentions of his alleged human rights abuses .  These awkward stories that he dismisses or denies saw him refused entry to the US and Australia earlier this century.

Indonesia street stalls are already selling photoshopped official portraits of the upcoming leaders to mount on lounge walls.  The 73-year old has shed wrinkles; his 38-year deputy has garnered wisdom lines.

An ANU conference of students and scholars in September held an Indonesia Update: How Jokowi changed Indonesia.

Their predictions of Prabowo’s rule run from maybe a matured reformist to the baton-master of Soeharto Mark Two and the flight of what’s left of democracy.  Most agree he’s a chameleon. ANU Associate Professor Marcus Mietzner reportedly said:

“Widodo’s enduring mark on his country may well be his decision and ability to put Prabowo into the presidency after defeating him twice and questioning his abilities.”

To a Westerner raised in the culture of confrontational politics the idea of a winning leader appointing his twice-defeated bitter rival as Minister of Defence sounds as whacky as eating cats - or a splendid example of forgiveness by a Muslim that Christians might emulate.

Whatever, Jokowi’s endorsement has propelled Prabowo into power tethered to Gibran to keep an eye on Daddy’s Nusantara – the new capital on Borneo Island. There are already hints that Prabowo’s not too keen on finding the cash.

Once in control the prez may send his VP into a dead-end job, like encouraging shy investors to rethink Pappa’s project. 

We don’t know – and neither do the bemused ANU conference experts, as confused as those who live in the archipelago.  Expect a political future as changeable as the climate – an age of uncertainty.

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  First published in Pearls & Irritations 30 September 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/looming-now-in-indonesia-the-age-of-uncertainty/