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                           A woman for all seasons

The epicentre of the pandemic is now next door. * When – and if – Covid is crushed or controlled Indonesia will need a president with prodigious leadership qualities and technical smarts to restore hope and get the economy out of ICU.  Vainglorious candidates will fail the tasks – but may still win the job.

Who will Indonesians pick for their next president in 2024 using a system where the people choose?  An unassertive mum wearing a jilbab, or a forthright feminist with uncovered hair thumping a lectern?  Maybe a traditionalist in a cultural costume urging immunisation?  Confusing choices, yet all for the same person.

Puan Maharani, 47, is speaker of the People's Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat aka DPR), Indonesia's lower house.

Apart from being the first woman to hold the job, her main claim to lead the world’s third-largest democracy is bloodline.   Maharani is a granddaughter of the Republic’s founding president Soekarno.

Through his union with Fatmawati, the third of his nine wives, Soekarno fathered Megawati Soekarnoputri who became the fifth president.  Her 2001-04 tenure was spectacularly free of reform and direction.

Daughter Maharani belongs to the secular Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P, the Democratic Party of Struggle), the nation’s leading political group, led and dominated by her mother.

Selected cities across Indonesia are now being treated to huge billboards offering various facets of Maharani, though always with mama in the background looking more like an older sister and certainly not 74.

Though Maharani’s antecedents have carried her far, they’re unlikely to take her into Jakarta’s White House unless other prospects flounder.  She may end up as VP in a face-saver trade-off, possibly linked to Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, 52, who is a member of the PDI-P.  He’s been loosely linked to corruption scandals though never charged.

 

Legacy may have been enough in the past when voters were swayed by personalities rather than policies.  But Indonesia is a different country today with Gen Z wiser to the possibilities than its Gen X forebears. 

Almost 30 per cent of the population of 273 million was born this century, meaning they’ve no personal knowledge of the era when Soekarno held god-like status. The Proklamator, who told the Dutch on 17 August 1945 that their colonial days were done, became the Republic’s first president.

Soeharto – the general who ousted Soekarno in 1965 to become Southeast Asia’s finest kleptocrat – is just a shadow figure remembered mainly by oldies.

Current president Joko Widodo, aka Jokowi, got the top job only through the reluctant endorsement of Mega when her party was fossicking for a winner as Puan was little known and inexperienced.  Widodo, then the governor of Jakarta, was a lowborn from the sticks but had built an incorruptible man-of-the-people profile and was the best the PDI-P could find. 

As reported earlier, kites have been flown to change the Constitution so Widodo can stay on for a further five-year term.  These have crashed as he’s refused to hold the strings offered by fixers like Surya Paloh.  He owns newspapers and Metro TV.  Like some Australian proprietors, he uses his holdings to back personal causes.

In Paloh’s case, this is his Partai Nasional Demokrat (National Democrat Party, aka Nasdem) which he founded and runs. It has 59 seats in the 575-member DPR and is in the coalition supporting Widodo.

Paloh’s political ambitions are constrained by his age (70) and ethnicity.  He comes from Aceh at the top of Sumatra.  The convention is that presidents should be Javanese.

At the moment there are three high-profile potential candidates with talent. All studied in the US.

They are Jakarta Governor Dr Anies Baswedan, 52, a former university rector, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, 49, an urban reformer, and business tycoon Sandiaga Uno, 52, now in the Ministry.

 

Picture by Erlinawati Graham

Baswedan (above), a former Fulbright Scholar, was Education Minister till sacked by Widodo in 2016 after less than two years in the job. At the time he told your correspondent he was bemused by the sudden dismissal and given no reason. Insiders said he had a lean and hungry look, thinking too much.  Even without an Eng Lit background, Widodo understood such men are dangerous.

Baswedan claims to be independent so will have to find a godfather. In the Indonesian system, the ambitious seek a party with bottomless vaults to fund a campaign rather than one whose ideology attracts. 

 

Kamil (right) was an architect and planner promoting green cities before entering politics. In 2006 he won the British Council's Young Creative Entrepreneur Award. He calls his company Urbane – which he is with foreign journos.

Uno as Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy seems to be taking the job seriously by constantly trying to reopen Bali to overseas visitors. The island continues to defy his pleas to expel Covid.

The mega-rich Uno’s energies and positivism are giving him a platform and media profile other possible chancers lack.  He doesn’t need giant billboards (appropriately called baliho) to be known, for in the 2019 elections he was the running mate of Prabowo Subianto on the Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party) ticket.

The disgraced general and former son-in-law of Soeharto is Indonesia’s version of Donald Trump without bone spurs. On quiet news days, the Indonesian press speculates whether Subianto, 69, will have another shot at getting into the palace.  The man occasionally pokes the embers but has preferred wandering the world talking arms deals until the pandemic hit hard.

When he lost to Widodo in the presidential race after campaigning as a responsible candidate, Subianto reverted to type by contesting the voters’ clear choice - 55.5 to 44.5 per cent.  His supporters rioted, causing eight deaths and 600 injuries.

This outrageous behaviour along with Subianto’s history of being dishonourably discharged from the military, going into exile in Jordan and being banned from the US because of alleged human rights violations should have damned his hopes forever.  However, his Croesus brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo helped the older sibling back into society and business.

In 2019 after the trashed cars had cooled in Jakarta and the dead were underground, Widodo made his hater Defence Minister.  This ensured Subianto’s Gerindra wouldn’t use its 78 seats and join another group to fell the government.  It also immunised him against RDS – Relevance Deprivation Syndrome and its outbursts of revenge.

Should the last century warrior stand again he’d have a chance with those of his era who hanker for the certainty and graft which goes with authoritarian rule.  That generation and its thinking is waning but could recover if Widodo continues to mishandle the pandemic.

Either Kamil, Baswedan or Uno would be genuinely welcomed in Canberra, Washington and Whitehall. Whatever baggage they’re carrying any one could push Indonesia ahead. Whether they have the political nous to outfox the fundamentalists, soothe the military and appease the oligarchs while mustering the masses are separate questions. 

What we do know is that Maharani would offer a return to feudal times, Subianto to the dark ages of despotism.  

*Latest from Reuters: Average number of new infections reported each day in Indonesia rises by more than 11,800 over the last 3 weeks, 23% of its previous peak

COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Indonesia, with 42,552 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 85% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on July 18.

There have been 3,331,206 infections and 90,552 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began.

First published in Pearls & Irritations 6 August 2021: https://johnmenadue.com/its-still-three-years-away-but-the-candidates-are-already-lining-up-to-be-the-next-president-of-indonesia/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE MAN WHO FELL TO EARTH

Polishing the Plin-Plan President      

Jolly Jokowi - man of the people - as seen before his election

                                                  

The always dapper Indonesian President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo is a splendid advocate for batik.  Most days he wears a new design; whatever the colour or pattern the traditional shirts dazzle on his slim athletic frame. 

His plump PDIP (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) boss and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, who famously dismissed him as ‘a party official’, once remarked that he couldn’t be a politician because he wasn’t sufficiently portly.  She might have added ‘Machiavellian’.

If Jokowi wasn’t running the world’s third largest democracy he could grace a catwalk for models are supposed to be seen, not heard.

Unfortunately being the seventh president of the Republic requires him to give speeches. These neither arouse not inspire - they anesthetise. The pause, so important in oratory and mastered by Megawati’s father first president Soekarno, becomes an embarrassment with the reserved Javanese:  Has he lost his way, his notes or both?

It’s not the only disenchantment with the man who seized the top job in the 2014 direct election by a narrow margin.  He won not so much for what he was, but what he wasn’t – a member of the corrupt oligarchy that’s run the nation of 250 million for so long and so badly.

Unreal expectations were also projected onto the former Governor of Jakarta, considered a friend of the wong cilik (ordinary folk) by taking walkabouts (blusukan) to hear the word on the street.

The illogical leap followed that he’d be a Lee Kuan Yew scourge of corruptors and a compassionate Nelson Mandela on human rights and social issues. A reformer, though not a liberal; the term carries negative baggage, particularly with Muslims.

The man Indonesia wanted - but hasn't got

These hopes have been shredded with Jokowi’s failure to wield a big stick against the rent-seekers and his flawed reasoning for executing drug traffickers.

Economically he’s plin-plan - one minute a protectionist, the next a free trader; anti West, then welcoming foreign investors.

His politically savvy supporters aware of the disappointments have been involved in makeovers partly led by Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.  Unfortunately they’ve compounded the problem

Retno is the first woman to hold the position and a surprise pick.  Jakarta scuttlebutt claims her credentials include a close relationship with Megawati.

The former Ambassador to the Netherlands doesn’t have the intellectual firepower of her predecessor Dr Marty Natalegawa. This is obvious from attempts to bolster Jokowi’s credentials as an international statesman when all evidence indicates his policy priorities and personal interests are domestic.

To counter this image Retno took letters urging peace from Jokowi to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz. 

No request had been made for Indonesia to broker a deal.  Unsurprisingly nothing came from the trip – Indonesia, like Saudi Arabia, is a Sunni Muslim nation that trashes Shia – the majority faith in Iran.

On her return Retno, who presumably hatched the idea, made much of the 20,000 kilometres travelled on her ‘diplomacy marathon’ but nothing on the results:

“We in the Islamic world … need to ensure that the region where most of the Muslim population resides, the Middle East, is peaceful, stable and prosperous, and continue to voice Islam as rakhmatan lil alamin (a blessing to the universe).”

The next stage in the attempted transformation  came during this month’s (Feb) trip to the US-ASEAN Summit where it seems the President said little and achieved less.

‘Jokowi conveys words of wisdom’ said one headline over a story about a courtesy call to Choummaly Sayasone of Laos on becoming chair of ASEAN: ”I am sure the chairmanship will lead ASEAN to be better and more successful.”

If Jokowi thinks the octogenarian  former general who  has been running the People’s Revolutionary Party in his Marxist-Leninist  state  for the past decade can put pep and purpose into the 39-year old ASEAN then the Indonesian is letting diplomatic niceties eclipse reality.

While Jokowi was heading to California, Indonesia’s  TV One (a station owned by a conglomerate headed by Aburizal Bakrie, a strong opponent of Jokowi during the 2014 election) telecast an  ‘exclusive’ interview with the President.

This turned out to be a brief love-in with lawyer and media executive Karni Ilyas heavily buttressed with thumpty-thump music and fast-edited  clips of the President looking decisive.

Jokowi claimed problems of infrastructure were holding back the nation, but failed to explain  how the roads will be rapidly  broadened and lengthened before gridlock cripples the economy.  The mounting frenzy against LGBT groups and ‘deviant’, sects of Islam didn’t get a look in.

Jokowi comes across as a nice one-on-one guy, not the tangiest spice on the menu but the sort householders might elect as their RT (Rukun Tetangga) neighbourhood chief. He’d sort out stray cat and rubbish problems without snarling or taking sides; there’d be no suggestions he’d trouser their donations for paving the footpath.  Nor would he initiate anything.

The wong cilik still seem to like him as his former opponents are in more disarray than the US Republicans.  However it would be naïve to think no plots exist in a country where conspiracies go with the rice.

The real power is muttered to be the tough-talking US-trained  former four-star General Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, Chief of Staff of the President’s Executive Office, whose credentials include a past business partnership with Jokowi. 

Despite his military background Luhut dresses plainly.  In batik he looks scruffy – so little chance of promotion – particular as he’s reported to be much disliked by Megawati.

So for the meantime Jokowi looks svelte and safe – provided he stays home and stops trying to be someone else.

(First published in New Mandala 23 February 2016.  See: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2016/02/23/polishing-the-plin-plan-president/

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HOW FAR HAS THE MENTAL REVOLUTION TURNED?

BTW

The Incremental Revolution

EXCLUSIVE.  The government will rush through new laws introducing pre-pre-trials preceding pre-trials before the trials of potential graft suspects backed by past presidents, their former in-laws and media magnates.

Sources said authorities were determined not to be outwitted by ornamental revolutionaries frustrating the appointments of senior people by assuming overflowing bank accounts indicate corruption.

“In a free society even police officers are allowed to amass fortunes,” a source said.  “It shows they’re also astute businessmen.  The nation needs robust entrepreneurs.   There will be unlimited pre-trials until we get the results we want.”

Earlier heavily armed members of the crack Densus 88 counter-terrorism squad raided the home of AB, the last remaining employee of the Corruption Eradication Commission [KPK].

AB’s neighbors in his Ciliwung River kampong said the illiterate one-legged 60-year old janitor had started work this year in the KPK basement. “I fear for my mate,” said one. “When the cops have finished with him he won’t have a leg to stand on.”

Witnesses said AB was dragged from his shower, handcuffed, tear-gassed and thrown into a windowless wagon before being rushed straight to Police Headquarters via unsealed tracks on Mount Bromo.

 A police officer, speaking on condition that he or she should remain gender free and anonymous lest he or she be arrested by someone, said AB had been charged with subversion.  He confirmed AB was being held on a top floor where toxic cleaning fluids are stored and windows easily opened.

The spokesthing said police acted after a complaint lodged against AB by his former elementary school headmaster.

“On the basis of information received from a principled principal, AB forged his school admission form and asked other pupils to commit perjury by witnessing his counterfeit thumbprint,” she / he said.

“Informants swear the five-year old was heard to shout: ‘I hate Soeharto’.

“This is a serious insult to a past Head of State.  It threatens the stability of the Republic.  When convicted AB will spend 20 years at Nusakambangan without parole.”

Attempts to confirm the allegation were unsuccessful.  Neighbors claimed the teacher, also named Soeharto, died in 1990,

When questioned by incredulous reporters the spokesthing said: “Don’t go poking in the past stirring hornets.  Your job is to report the present facts as we say them.

“AB had also conspired to be Jokowi’s running mate.  A surprise raid by Densus 88 was necessary to retrieve the proof and because he’d been observed buying a DVD of The Raid – Redemption. Don’t be fooled by the wheelchair - he’s a violent practitioner of pencak silat [Indonesian martial arts]. 

“His bathroom had weapons like razors, hairsprays and soap.  AB is a slippery customer alright.  The safety of our officers is always our first concern.

“We also had to ensure the suspect had no time to destroy incriminating photographs of KPK commissioners with nude teenage models injecting shabu-shabu in a five-star hotel room with sacks of US dollars on an unmade bed.

“A laptop was seized and the pictures will be found.”

Following the arrest a senior law lecturer, who called himself Anon as he has yet to flee overseas, said there was no statute of limitations.

“It doesn’t matter how long ago the offence was committed; a crime is still a crime and no-one is above the law enforcers.

”Could a minor be found guilty?  That’s a question for the courts, but every child should know they must respect Pak Soeharto who showed us all what’s right and wrong. If not, they haven’t been raised properly so could be prosecuted for selecting irresponsible parents.”

The President, who asked that his name not be published because he had not been authorized to think by his party leader, said he was considering saying something at some point in the future should an advisory committee advise that  this was advisable.

“Please be patient and let things take their natural course,” he told nonplussed journalists before cycling into the streets for Decision-Free Day.

“Get things in perspective. My government will be instrumental in introducing the Mental Revolution, but progress has to be incremental.  That’s fundamental. We’ve embraced democracy,  so the next stage is a good Greek tragedy.”  Duncan Graham

First published in The Jakarta Post Sunday 22 February 2015)

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PRINT MEDIA STILL DETERMINES NEWS AGENDA

Me generation unfriends politics 

                                  

Despite a small readership Indonesian newspapers are setting the political agenda.  Television and radio pick up print stories and amplify them.  The issues then get into the social media and impact voters.

“I used to think it was the other way around, and that comments on the Internet determined the response of the mainstream media,” said US-educated political scientist Dr Djayadi Hanan (right).

“However further research has changed my view. Around 80 per cent of Indonesians still rely on national television for political information, though news and current affairs stations are not popular. 

“For example, Metro TV (owned by NasDem Party founder Surya Paloh) attracts an audience on only three per cent. TV One (linked to Golkar chair and presidential hopeful Aburizal Bakrie) has five to six per cent.  The popular channels are those that telecast sinetron (soap operas).”

Dr Hanan, 40, a lecturer in international relations at Paramadina University in Jakarta, was speaking at a forum on development and democracy held at the Indonesian Embassy in Wellington, New Zealand last week. (W/end 30 Nov).

His speech used statistics, which he said were reliable, up-to-date and compiled from surveys across the nation by his university and other researchers. He told an audience of academics, students and diplomats that only between 11 and 13 per cent of the population used the print media.

That number appeared to be declining.  However on-line Internet sites run by newspapers were winning readers.

“The Internet is a democratizing and democratic media, but access is still limited, unlike television which is widely available throughout the Archipelago,” he said. 

“This is largely because the administration of former President Soeharto put up the Palapa satellite,” he said. (Palapa One was launched in 1975)

“About 45 million are using the Internet, but few have high speed broadband outside Jakarta. Most have social media contacts, which is why President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono used Twitter to directly reach electors and comment on the Australian spying revelations.

“This is something Australian commentators, critical of a national leader using Twitter, could not understand. Fifteen per cent of global tweets are sent in the Republic, probably because we like talking about ourselves”.

The problem for politicians trying to get their names in front of the public is that Internet users are an exclusive group.

“Their Internet content includes opinions, expressions and stories of an urban middle-class culture, its lifestyle and problems,” Dr Hanan said. “Most Facebook groups are about brands and products, entertainment and celebrities – not politics.

“Social and political concerns exist but are event-driven and short lived.  They mimic the taste and bias of the mainstream media.  The more contact users have with politics the more they are alienated from politicians.”

Dr Hanan said he didn’t like to follow Australian political scientists and give “counsels of despair”, even though Indonesia did have serious problems with corruption and education; for example few students used the Internet at school or university.

However research showed almost 70 per cent believe democracy is the best system for Indonesia – though this support lagged behind public opinion in South Korea and Taiwan.

Although the public was generally satisfied with their experiences with democracy, that approval rating had slipped from a high of 75 per cent in 2009 to just over half this year.

Freedom of expression and freedom of the press were highly regarded with well over 90 per cent approval. Education and public health remained as the most important issues facing voters as they head into next year’s elections.

(First published in The Jakarta Post, 1 December 2013)

ANIES BASWEDAN

Looking on the bright side

According to the political pundits Anies Baswedan has got The Right Stuff to be a future President. He comes from a famous family with a creditable past – his grandfather A R Baswedan was an independence activist.

He was raised in Yogyakarta, the cultural centre of Java, the son of academics. His wife Fery Farhati is a psychologist. He’s overseas educated, unafraid of criticising the government and isn’t squeamish about attacking Islamic hardline violence.

Dr Baswedan is young (41), personable and ably articulates a future Indonesia where its well-educated citizens stand tall and proud, achievers yielding to none. His speciality is lambasting the merchants of gloom.

“Let’s stop saying Indonesia is a poor country,” said the rector of the Islamic Paramadina University with some passion. “We must stop asking the government for help. Why do we feel so inferior? In 1945 we didn’t sit around and ask the Ministry of Defence to kick out the Dutch – we all worked together to do it ourselves.

“We’ve become a nation of complainers, sitting down in five star hotels that didn’t exist a few years ago, worried about a nation that in 1945 had 95 per cent illiteracy – now almost all can read and write.

“ Be grateful. Don’t curse the darkness, light a candle. The question is: How do we facilitate the principles of Pancasila.” (The State philosophy designed by first president Soekarno.)

Before he can put himself forward as a candidate for the Republic’s top job, the upbeat US educated Dr Baswedan has a few chasms to cross and bonds to tie. He needs powerful friends with deep pockets and the right connections.

In New Zealand at the invitation of the government to cement ties with the Victoria University of Wellington he was introduced as a ‘prominent political analyst … not affiliated with any political party or group.’

However in Indonesia he’s been associated with the ambitious media mogul and former Golkar heavyweight Surya Paloh who formed the National Democrats (Nasdem) last year. The academic often appears on Paloh’s Metro TV.

“I’m not in anyone’s pocket,” he said “I’m just one of the 45 who signed the (Nasdem) manifesto. (This rejects a vision of democracy lacking proper concern for the people’s welfare).

“Democracy is not incompatible with Islam, and it’s not a Western import. In fact in its early period Islam was a pioneer in democracy holding elections in Medina. But after 39 years the Sultanate system took over – and that was a mistake.

“We do have traditional democracy and we want to get it back. Democracy is not just about free elections and the media, it’s also about input and output.

“I’m worried that the failure to reform the legal system and bureaucracy means the government has failed to reach the objectives that democracy promised. We’re now in the third five-year period where the government must deliver. Foremost is education.”

The other factor is violence against religious minorities. “This is challenging the very foundations of our society,” he said. “I am truly worried. If my home is attacked the police will come. If the thugs use religious names the police won’t intervene.

“There must be zero tolerance and the police must be given political protection to uphold the law.”

When he became the youngest rector in the Republic back in 2005 aged 36 he inherited the position formerly held by the late Nurcholish Madjid. Also known as Cak Nur the liberal scholar became famous for his statement ‘Islam, yes – Islamic parties, no.’
Dr Baswedan has become best known for his TV commentaries and adjudications, and his ‘education should be an escalator’ campaign to get major changes in the Indonesian education system.

He wants higher quality well paid teachers keen to enter a profession with status, working in the regions and then being able to use their experience in other jobs. He urged Indonesia’s 60,000 overseas students to return to their homeland, but not apply for government jobs. Instead they should approach private enterprise with entrepreneurial ideas.

The New Order government flooded schools with thousands of unqualified teachers. Many are still employed and can’t be sacked. Dr Baswedan said that the government’s intentions were best illustrated by the reality of the statistics – 144,000 primary schools, but only 26,000 secondary schools.

His proposal involves major companies helping the best and brightest, especially those who are poor, denied the opportunities the rich can buy, whatever their abilities.

This raises the question of why Indonesia’s taxation system isn’t functioning efficiently to capture and redistribute wealth. To this he argues that the system is getting better, but in the meantime nationalistic philanthropy should plug the gap.

Before he gets to become a candidate with a chance, Dr Baswedan has to have the military on side. He doesn’t see this as a problem, arguing that Indonesia still needs the presence of a strong institution to combat fears of internal armed insurrection.

He said the Western idea that the army should be kept in barracks and used only for external threats doesn’t apply in a nation where mass uprisings could be too big for the police to contain. “Democracy allows for peaceful protests but not violence.”

Even if Indonesians buy Dr Baswedan’s line that democracy is an Islamic ideal he still has to deal with the slur of being a brainwashed US-educated neo-liberal infecting Indonesia with Western values.

His defences have been well polished.

“Most Indonesians who go to the US end up being critics of the country,” he said. “Democracy doesn’t require secularism. The separation of church and state is not universal in the West. In Britain the Queen is the head of the Church of England.

“France which is supposed to allow religious freedoms has banned Islamic headscarves in State institutions. Several European countries have government departments of religious affairs.

“You talk about a united Europe arising from the ashes of the Second World War and comparing this with the progress in Indonesia – but Europe has no common language as we do. That’s a remarkable achievement.

“Indonesians are becoming more pious – but that doesn’t translate into votes for Islamic parties.”

So will he seek the nation’s top job? Like any able politician Dr Baswedan frequently sidesteps direct questions, substitutes his own, then answers. But he did rule out standing in the 2014 election - because he’s too young.

(First published in The Jakarta Post 19 March 2011)

DECODING THE INDONESIAN ELECTION

Indonesia’s Mr Try-Hard gets voters’ nod Duncan Graham

Out of the chaos of Indonesian politics has come forth clarity. More than half the voters in the world’s most populous Muslim nation prefer moderate secular parties rather than those sheltering under the crescent of Islam.

On the surface this looks like good news for the West, particularly Australia which has long had an edgy relationship with its northern neighbour. (See Scoop 22 April 2009) About 240 million people are squashed into the archipelago that straddles the equator. More than 40 million live below the poverty line, earning less than $US 2 a day.

The election results are also warming for New Zealand. Indonesia remains our biggest market in South-East Asia. Our exports are worth about $NZ I billion and growing fast, so the stability of our big customer is of great importance. A free trade agreement between the nations was signed in February.

The just released official results of the 9 April election have closely followed informal exit polls. They’ve shown the Democratic Party of the incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (widely known as SBY) ahead of all 38 parties seeking power, winning 21.04 per cent of the vote.

Second was the Democratic Party of Struggle led by the former president Megawati Soekarnoputri with 14.52 per cent, a whisker ahead of Golkar mustering 14.23 per cent.

Golkar is the political vehicle designed and driven by the late president Soeharto to hold absolute power for 32 years. More recently it’s been steered by the vice-president Jusuf Kalla.

Fourth with 8.16 per cent was the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) that has kept its Islamic credentials in the background while campaigning hard against corruption. This has caused a frisson of fear among those who suspect the party has another agenda.

In New Zealand most Indonesian voters backed SBY.

Clearly with these results a coalition will have to run the 560-seat Parliament, known as the DPR. How that’s going to be engineered is the critical question, though this time round SBY can bargain from a position of strength.

Under the Indonesian system the people directly elect the president and vice president for a five-year term. In the 2004 election the Democratic Party was a tiny player with less than eight per cent of the vote. But the electorate wanted SBY, not his principal rival Megawati, by a margin of three to two.


Optimists say all this shows Indonesians have embraced democracy and are making it work. Those who don’t use rose-coloured glasses note only 61 per cent of the nation’s 171 million eligible electors bothered to vote and millions were disenfranchised through registration stuff-ups.

Critics of SBY’s administration during the past five years often overlook the huge problems he faced and give insufficient weight to his skills in keeping the political system intact and the economy on course.

For a Kiwi comparison, imagine Jeanette Fitzsimons being elected PM by popular vote while the Greens bump along the bottom in Parliament.

In 2004 SBY campaigned for the nation’s top job with businessman Jusuf Kalla, thereby binding Golkar into the government. SBY still hasn’t chosen his running mate for this year’s election. Golkar gave SBY the numbers on the floor of Parliament, but the compromises required eroded much of his authority.

Unless SBY picks a mightily unpopular running mate, or someone considered corrupt, the man with a public approval rating of 70 per cent looks set in the job. Megawati will challenge but she’s a lacklustre candidate famous for being aloof and believing she deserves the job just because her dad was the country’s first president.

Westerners dealing with Indonesia have been barracking for SBY, not because he’s been an outstanding leader but because the alternatives look so scary.

During the authoritarian and corrupt rule of General Soeharto that ended in 1998 with the Asian economic crisis, the military ran the country and just about everything else. The army had seats in Parliament, controlled many businesses, had a major internal security role, oversaw the police and were considered untouchable.

Although the army’s influence is no longer so blatant it’s still a major force behind the scenes. Boosters for SBY highlight his academic qualifications (he has a doctorate in agriculture), his urbanity and English skills learned while studying in the US, and his middle ground, ultra-cautious politics. He appears to genuinely believe in democracy and has gravitas on the international stage.

Supporters play down the fact that he was a four-star general before entering politics and comes from a military family. His father, father-in-law and one son are, or were, soldiers.

Two former generals with questionable human-rights records were major party candidates in this year’s election and Megawati is largely regarded as a tool of the military.

SBY has been unable to stop the imposition of some aspects of Islamic Sharia law in the provinces. These include forcing female bureaucrats and students to wear headscarves, banning alcohol, enforcing prayers and setting up community patrols to sniff out sexual naughtiness, though the Constitution appears to prohibit such local initiatives.

By contrast, and after decades of oppression, the media in Indonesia is now the freest in South-East Asia, robustly pushing the old barriers on a wide range of social and political issues.

Despite doomsayers claiming Indonesia would become another Pakistan as fundamentalism flourished, that hasn’t happened. The battle against terrorism, with significant help from the Australian Federal Police, has notched up many wins against the bombers.

SBY’s push against corruption has had limited success; pulling out the wallet remains the standard way to bypass stalling bureaucrats at all levels. The arrest this month of the Corruption Commission boss Antasari Azhar on charges of being involved in the murder of a businessman has crippled the clean-up campaign.

The judiciary is still a mess, continuing to use colonial Dutch law from early last century, and the over-staffed public service a dinosaur sturdily resisting extinction. Outsiders trying to do business need to tread warily.

The economy has slumped, though not as much as expected and less than other Asian nations. Poverty and poor quality education remain major concerns, although there have been patchwork successes in improving the lives of those on Struggle Street.

The consensus, both inside and outside the Republic seems to be that Mr Try-Hard has made a reasonable fist of handling one of the world’s toughest tasks – and given the line-up against him is clearly the best bloke around.

There are two standout dangers: If he wants to divorce Golkar and get a workable majority in the Parliament, SBY may be forced to cohabit with the PKS and other minor Islamic parties. This could let the extremist tail wag the reformist dog.

The other concern is that the opposition parties frustrated at their inability to find candidates with popular appeal may combine to spoil SBY’s legislative program out of spite. Success here seems less likely; though the emotion is real they’ll find it hard to bury differences because so many are single-issue or policy-free parties.

The election for the president will be held on 8 July, with a run off on 8 September if no candidate gets above 50 per cent of the vote.

* (First published in Scoop.com Tuesday 11 May)
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