FAREWELL DEMOCRACY
There’ll be a good indicator - if not a firm result - by the time most Australians go to bed tonight. Then we’ll know if the ferociously ambitious Prabowo Subianto - Indonesia’s political psychopath - will be running the nation next door and booting out democracy.
The Economist Intelligence Unit has consistently tagged Indonesia as a “flawed democracy”, behind Malaysia and the Philippines. Whatever the analysts think today the Republic will be holding a monster - reportedly the world’s biggest one-day election.
Imagine your local supermarket eleven times larger. Every shelf is sagging, every product in abundance - only the labels differ with few ingredients listed. Now transfer the lot onto social media and the street, smothering anything green with vinyl advertising. Presto - the 2024 Indonesian election campaign.
It’s a vast country but only three sets of candidates (all male, Muslim and Javanese) are slugging it out on 14 February to run the Republic for the next five years. So what’s the big deal?
Forgotten by the AI headliners is that this isn't solely about former Jakarta Governor Dr Anies Baswedan, cashiered one-time general Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, all desperate to be El Supremo.
Thousands of Indonesians are standing for a cluster of 20,000 national, regional and local seats next Wednesday. From the banners of their fizzogs, it seems half the citizenry has its hat in the ring - though it’s only 200,000.
With a population jostling 280 million, Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest country after India, China and the US - and it’s right next door. Be warned, says Canberra - don’t go if you don’t know; millions will be on the streets and not all will be happy.
Although all candidates are smiling on their placards, that's not everyone's default position. Fist-waving and finger-pointing are essential. The few women have lots of lippy and jilbabs (headscarves); the young guys bruised foreheads supposedly from head-banging while praying in hard-floor mosques.
In religious Indonesia, where all citizens must belong to one of six government-approved faiths, it seems that piety is the main qualification for secular administration.
Looking at their forced grins the hopefuls would be happier sneering and snarling, which is how they’ll behave once they lose - as most will. Hoaxes abound,
Citizens need to be 17 or over though underage marrieds can also visit the ballot box in their street or village. Voting is often in the open and there are so many booths the show is often done and dusted by noon. The system is first-pass-the-post.
Around 205 million have registered. Based on earlier figures 80 per cent should turn up, though voting isn’t compulsory. Purple ink on the finger shows you’ve already been to a booth. Social media is full of tales of bribes, but your correspondent has been unable to verify.
The cost is enormous and most of the big backers are Indonesian businesses. One stab is US $ 500 million, but that seems far too low. For an analysis, go here.
Half the population is under 40 and the prospective legislators have little idea on how to reach a tech-savvy generation with no knowledge of last century’s authoritarian politics and ruthless dealings with dissidents. Much has been spent on cartoon characters and silly memes, a real insult to thoughtful voters. Sadly they’re the minority.
The formal handover of power will take place in October. Till then the admin of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo will continue.
Of the present 575 polis in the Big House, many come from little parties who back Jokowi. That means he does what he likes and the only opposition comes from NGOs in rented offices with leaky ceilings and shared toilets.
Fortunately Jokowi has been relatively benign, good on toll roads, factories and exports, poor on human rights. He has an 80 per cent approval rate - or did until he backed his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming to stand with Prabowo, earning widespread wrath from academics.
His successor will inherit a steady slackening of enthusiasm for democracy.
With ten or more individuals chasing every seat in the regions and districts, how does the elector make sense of it all? Best just follow the simper or smirker you like best, or shove a hole through your party's choice using the nail supplied - a left-over from the days when many electors were illiterate. (The rate now is around one per cent and decreasing,)
The Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) is the only stand-alone as it scored more than 20 per cent of the votes last time.
The others have formed coalitions, diluting their impact and independence, but ensuring a slice of the pizza cut by the winner.
Monday and yesterday were campaign-free, giving candidates a breather and the chance of a clean up.
The candidate pairs - pres and vice - need a simple majority to win. At this stage it's reckoned no one will get that score, meaning a run-off by the top two on 26 June. But check tonight.
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Duncan Graham has an MPhil degree, a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He lives in East Java.
First published 14 February 2024 in Pearls & Irritations; https://johnmenadue.com/farewell-democracy-link-b-pic-prabowo-subianto/
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