Warm fuzzies, blizzards of bland but no treaty
Are Australia and Indonesia heading towards a security agreement / treaty much like the one recently signed with Japan? Not until Indonesia abandons a policy as sacred to the Republic as recognising Anzac is to us.
Statements following the Eighth Australia-Indonesia Foreign and Defence Ministers’ 2+2 Meeting earlier this month have spurred speculation that more goodies are to come..
But like supermarket signs when cleaners are at work, consumers should take care, pause awhile and move slowly before filling the shopping cart.
The two-day meeting between Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and his counterpart Richard Marles plus the two FMs, Retno Marsudi and Penny Wong generated a swag of cliched statements with only one carrying clout.
This ‘confirmed our intent to elevate the 2021 Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) to an agreement that’s binding under international law.’
In reality they won’t get far.The Jakarta Post editorialised: ‘As the Indonesian political world is setting its sights on the Feb. 14, 2024, elections, it is unlikely that the House of Representatives will review, let alone ratify, any incoming bilateral cooperation pact.’
The Australian applauded a ‘crucial new defence treaty’ after the talks with Indonesia.The term morphed into an ‘arrangement’ and then a ‘defence pact’, but a ‘treaty’ has to be ‘binding under international law’ . That hasn’t happened and won’t if Indonesia stays on the foreign policy track its trodden since 1948.
In reality the pledges cover basics, like ‘reciprocal access to training ranges and streamlined entry and exit processes .. working together on military medicine, military technology (and) defence industry.’
Don Rothwell, Professor of International Law at ANU, predicts many challenges negotiating of the proposed new agreement. ‘I suspect it will be a very dynamic process.’
He told this column the Japan agreement ‘could be a precedent for an equivalent agreement with Indonesia … and (that’s) what Australia may have in mind.’
Indonesia would not share that thinking. Its mendayung antara dua karang (rowing between two reefs) policy means it doesn’t side with world powers …(which) ‘would be incompatible with the country’s national philosophy.’
Rothwell foresees a lengthy process and multiple difficulties: ‘One sticking point – as it was in the Australia / Japan RAA - is whether ADF personnel and associated civilian components visiting Indonesia would be subject to the death penalty if convicted of certain crimes.’
Also significant is what apparently wasn’t discussed. In this case the whales in the pond are US plans to rotate up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers through the Tindal air base south of Darwin. The ‘squadron operations facility’ proposal was revealed by the ABC Four Corners programme last October.
The Global Times run by the Chinese Communist Party quoted Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian saying ‘the US move has escalated regional tensions, seriously sabotaged regional peace and stability, and could trigger a regional arms race.’
This is not to suggest collusion because Indonesia hates Reds and fear’s China’s expansion, but these concerns were also expressed by Jakarta when the AUKUS deal was announced in 2021. The plan is for eight nuclear-powered submarines.
Since then we’ve learned through a Senate estimates hearing that the B-52s may fly nuclear weapons. However both sides fell back on the old ‘warhead-ambiguity’ formula, neither confirming nor denying that they carry 32-tonnes of megadeath. This appears to satisfy Canberra though Jakarta will not be so appeased.
Back in her homeland FM Marsudi was reported as saying she wanted ‘transparency and the commitment [to stop] nuclear proliferation.’ But, and most curiously, she was referring to the AUKUS sub deal which won’t see craft slip underwater for a decade, not the Stratofortresses soaring overhead now.
There are 35 US bases in Australia according to an anti-base organisation which includes seismic and weather stations. The government says these are not foreign bases but facilities. Whatever the language and partisan the source, Uncle Sam has no problem taking a kip in Oz, but would stay sleepless in Indonesia.
Then there are the marines on rotation in the Top End, a deal struck by Labor in 2011.The latest known figure is 2,500 soldiers.
Imagine the terror across our wide brown land if Chinese H-20 stealth bombers (range 8,500 km) were in Flores, distance to Canberra and back 8,200 km.
Indonesia’s ‘no-sides’ policy negates that scenario even though China is already well embedded in the archipelago. It’s Indonesia’s biggest trade partner - import and export - the third largest investor (after Singapore and HK) and a ‘Belt and Road’ partner.
Also seemingly off the ministers’ table were people smugglers. Australia has upped sea patrols following visa changes. It would deepen the much ballyhooed cooperation if Indonesia’s navy helped prevent illegal departures.
There are around 14,000 asylum seekers stranded in Indonesia. Your correspondent has interviewed skilled English-speaking professionals from Afghanistan and Iran stranded in East Java. They’re wasting in a legal limbo - some for a decade - as Indonesia hasn’t signed the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.
Even if people smugglers came knocking the families are broke. They’ll eventually have to be relocated which could relieve Indonesia and benefit Australia.
Indonesia lacks the access Australia has to large overseas groupings, like the Anglosphere, the Quad and the Commonwealth. As a Muslim-majority nation it’s a member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation along with 56 other states, though this is more concerned with devotion than defence.
Indonesia is the key member of ASEAN and Australia says it wants to work with the bloc. But the 55-year old organisation is seen as ‘slow, ineffective and incapable of dealing with recent developments’ according to a Singapore study with its members at ‘risk of becoming proxies’ to the major powers.’
That’s a primeval fear across Indonesia. There’ll be more platitudes, a tinkering at the edges of policy and happy-snaps though no join-us treaty. But at least everyone’s talking, and will have personal numbers on speed dial when things go bad.
First published in Michael West Media, 26 February 2023: https://michaelwest.com.au/akus-and-b52s-in-way-of-treaty-with-indonesia/
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