King-maker queen could call our neighbour’s pres
Credit: PDIP
Indonesia is a republic, though that’s hard to believe when a queen will decide who’s likely to be the next President of the world’s third largest democracy. Megawati Soekarnoputri 76, the daughter of first President Soekarno is head of the nation’s leading political party, now celebrating its golden jubilee.
The lady could hardly have been better named. Her Dad called his kids after elements of the weather with ‘mega’ meaning ‘cloud goddess’ in Sanskrit.. He didn’t imagine a megalomaniac.
She runs the poll-leader Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) with such authority she can name her party’s candidate for next year’s general election without getting members’ votes. She told celebrants at the party’s big bash this month: ‘People are waiting for (the candidate’s name) … but it’s my business’.
Nine years ago she hand-picked the then Jakarta Governor Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo who won two five-year terms by beating authoritarian Prabowo Subianto. Instead of ignoring his rival, Widodo made him Defence Minister, giving him a platform for another shot at the top job.
‘We have very different political systems,’ said Penny Wong.. ‘We have very different views about how our political system should operate. And we have different interests. But we need to seek to manage those differences.’
That’s Australia’s Foreign Minister talking about far-away China. No editing needed to use the same speech about the nation next door.
With the official allocation of parties’ positions complete and VOTE ME banners appearing, Indonesian electors are tucking their sarongs ready for a robust 12-month campaign climaxing early next year.
The last one in 2019 was a killer – literally. Around 500 officials and helpers among the seven million recruits died of exhaustion during the world’s biggest one-day election.
The show then turned American with riots in major towns causing six deaths and 200 wounded.
The violence was launched by supporters of failed candidate Prabowo Subianto, 71, whose wacky speeches about a ‘Ghost Fleet’ invasion make Trump sound balanced.
The disgraced former general linked to human rights abuses says he’ll stand again hoping to lure uncaring voters wanting a tough-talk leader. He’d be bad news for Australia.
The president is elected by direct vote. No compulsion; last time the turnout was 81 per cent of the 187 million registered voters – minimum age 17.
Indonesia has a bicameral parliament. The major authority is the 575-member People’s Representative Council (DPR) elected through proportional representation. The PDI-P holds 128 seats but has put other parties under its brolly to gain control.
Much will bewilder outsiders as 17 parties claim they’re driven by care for the nation’s poor. All assert piety to snare the Muslim vote. There’s no sharp left-right divide as in the US and Australia. Some researchers claim parties merge ‘to share the spoils of office, rather than by ideological or policy differentiation.’
Indonesia says it’s a secular democracy. That doesn’t mean it’s authentic. The US Government-funded Freedom House scores it a ‘partly free’ 59. Finland hits high with 100. Australia ranks 95.
Indonesia’s place will assuredly slip, shoved by fresh laws curbing freedom of speech; bad-mouth the president and ministers at your peril. There’s no defence of truth.
Indonesia started dancing with democracy in 1945 when the anti-West Soekarno proclaimed independence from Dutch rule. The new Republic was a ‘liberal democracy.’ By 1959 the President, who had nine known wives and at least a dozen offspring, decided hubby knows best and squabbling legislators needed a firm hand.
‘Guided democracy’ ran till the 1965 coup launched the Orde Baru (New Order) US-backed despotic rule of General Soeharto, one of the world’s top kleptocrats..
When forced out by student protests in 1998, The Guardian reported that Soeharto, ‘regarded as a bulwark against communism in Asia, stole as much as $35bn from his impoverished country during his three decades in power.’
This wealth was built on ‘ruthless repression, cronyism and manipulation of the world's rival superpowers.’ Much remains embedded in the culture. Last year Transparency International measured Indonesian corruption at 96/180.
A survey by the Indonesian think-tank CSIS showed voters’ contempt starts with the cops, then cascades to the legislature, judiciary, political parties and public officials.
Soeharto’s Golkar Party won all elections till 1999 perhaps because public servants were compelled to support. In 2014 the presidency was captured by Widodo, humble Mr Everyman with no links to the army or the elite.
He was reluctantly endorsed by the nation’s slightly left, totally nationalist PDI-P. Megawati should be seeking the most meritorious replacement for Widodo, constitutionally barred from restanding. But her ambition is to keep the family in power by putting her daughter Puan Maharani, 49 on the Palace stage.
The election will be on Valentine’s Day next year. That’s not an omen for love twixt the public and imperious Puan. No-one dare tell Mamma Mega, and fifth president (2001-04), that the times they are a-changin’. A third of the 274 million population was born this century and probably assumes Orde Baru is a new gaming app.
Parties shop around for crowd-pulling candidates, who in turn seek parties with the most cash. That’s the PDI-P. Hot tip: Should Puan retreat watch for Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo who’s into domestic issues. Credit: DPR
Then comes the former Governor of Jakarta Dr Anies Baswedan. Another possible is the West Java Governor and architect Ridwan Kamil.
Both are US-educated cosmopolitans who know Australia. In past interviews with this correspondent they’ve applied the ‘warm relationships’ template. Unless there’s a crisis don’t expect specific policies beyond increasing trade.
The last real Ozophile was sixth president (2004 -14) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. We liked the man and his wife Ani so much we bugged their phones and got caught.
Former Canadian PM Pierre Trudeau once said living alongside the US is like sleeping with an elephant. In our case it’s a big-horned buffalo, normally tranquil but can speedily turn cranky. Best learn its moods, or as FM Wong suggests, ‘manage differences’.
The campaign will be robust and raucous. Bank on vile slurs involving faiths and wild claims about Australia’s US links and villainous plans. A favourite at the moment are war predictions over ownership of Australia’s Ashmore Reef, an uninhabited sand spit and nature reserve used by traditional fishers.
To Indonesians we’re a granary and stock-yard, distrusted, insignificant, unwelcoming and weird. Every new Australian PM dashes to Jakarta with a clutch of clichés about importance.
Don’t expect the next president to reciprocate, or our mainstream media to keep you informed. The ABC has regular programmes on China, India and the US, but not next door.
Copy from Washington doesn’t need translating.
First published in Michael West Media 29 January 2023: https://michaelwest.com.au/indonesia-to-elect-a-new-president-but-a-queen-will-decide-the-leading-candidate/
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