Rearranging the
region
Professor John Blaxland sees the world differently. Particularly Southeast Asia which he sets as the
centrepoint rather than an afterthought
To help others cope with this unsettling cartography he offers
a sweetener – a grouping of nations to better suit new realities than old regimes.
The globe as drawn by seafarers from afar has Indonesia
straddling the Equator. The islands of the archipelago look upwards and see the
looming might of China.
Below is the Great South Land, adjacent and inviting; this
view is the Australian nightmare, the dread that their empty land will have famished
millions tumbling down to smother a European outpost.
Blaxland’s chart squashes this fear of population shift
through gravity by flattening the projection so the focus is Darwin, population
around 200,000 with satellite suburbs.
The lonely little city atop Australia (the capital Canberra is
almost 500 kilometers further than Jakarta) has been hosting 2,500 US troops on six-month
rotations for the past five years. The agreement behind this arrangement remains
secret.
At the closest point Indonesia and Australia are just 200
kilometres apart, near enough to suggest a neighbourhood watch might be in
order.
Blaxland, head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre
at the Australian National University, uses his map to glaze the idea of MANIS
as a regional maritime cooperation forum. The word means ‘sweet’ in
Indonesian, but here it stands for the cluster of Malaysia, Australia, New
Zealand, Indonesia and Singapore.
He urges against confusion with the 1971 Five Power Defence Arrangements - the
same nations plus the UK but minus Indonesia.
“Existing forums, like ASEAN (aged 50) are struggling to
reach consensus,” Blaxland told a seminar on Australia and Indonesia Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific held at
the University of Western Australia in July.
“A smaller grouping like MANIS would see problem solving
more achievable for pressing issues that require regional cooperation. It would be best to start slowly, gradually
generate goodwill and political momentum.
“MANIS would involve collaboration with governments, universities,
think tanks, NGOs and community service organisations. Matters to discuss could
include police, immigration, border security, legal, judicial, environmental,
intelligence, financial and other working groups.
“The groups could exchange information and share concerns. Closer engagement and sharing of experiences
could generate fresh ideas.”
Blaxland is no dreamworld academic. He’s worked in the military and intelligence
so knows how to chat to generals, spies and diplomats. He understands the
political sensitivities, like not calling his idea an ‘alliance’.
“With a dose of humility on Australia’s part, and a degree
of magnanimous but farsighted Indonesian inclusiveness, the scheme could be
made to work,” he said.
Why include a former Dutch colony while the other proposed
members have Commonwealth ties?
“Indonesia’s population
and geo-strategic significance astride the maritime arteries connecting the
Indian and Pacific Oceans make it the key to multilateral regional maritime
cooperation.” In brief, the Republic is now too important to ignore.
Forums thrive in the region.
Many look good, bloom early then wither in breezes of bland. Blaxland’s word is “cumbersome”.
One of the most unwieldy in title and management is the Bali Process on People Smuggling,
Trafficking in Persons and Related Transnational Crime. Its 45 members
include Jordan and Iran who have more pressing issues almost 10,000 kilometres
north-west.
MANIS has been driving around awhile. That it’s still finding parking space on
agendas suggests the tank is full. Blaxland keeps steering: “This was always something that would take time
to get policy traction - and one that would require Indonesian buy-in.”
The first model rolled
out at a 2013 meeting of Aus-CSCAP. The
acronym is unpronounceable but Blaxland reckons the non-government Australian Council for Security
Cooperation in the Asia Pacific is a useful informal forum for floating ideas about “political and
security issues and challenges facing the region.”
The 2014 election all-change in Jakarta gave MANIS a welcome
nudge. New President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo,
a noted landlubber, surprised many by bringing maritime issues ashore for a policy
refit.
Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi explained this was to “protect
Indonesia’s sovereignty … by responding firmly to any intrusions into
Indonesian territory”.
Implementation involved much theatre as captured foreign
fishing boats were blown up once TV crews were in place. The big bangs lifted the reputation of Jokowi
and his unconventional Minister of Maritime
Affairs and Fisheries Susi Pudjiastuti, a former can-do
entrepreneur.
Less well publicised were clashes where Indonesian patrol
boats were trounced by better armed Chinese craft. Rhetoric sinks fast when one navy is
underequipped.
Blaxland’s candy got another coating a fortnight after
his Perth speech when diplomats from Australia, NZ, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia
and the Philippines gathered to worry about militants. The East
Asia Wilayah has been fighting for an Islamic state in Marawi. More than 600 have reportedly been killed in continuing
conflict.
The Filipino city is just 700 kilometres above Indonesia’s
Manado where the talks were held. The
envoys said they’d cooperate more closely with intelligence and law enforcement
authorities, but didn’t say how.
This concerns the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC). Its July report said that ‘despite the calls
for more regional counter-terrorism cooperation in light of the Marawi siege,
there are formidable political and institutional obstacles at work, including
Philippine-Malaysian distrust that inhibits information-sharing.’ This refers
to counter-terrorism responsibilities – police or military?
Blaxland’s group doesn’t include the Philippines. It may have to if defeated fighters retreat
to nearby nations as feared by IPAC director Sidney Jones. Then it would be
MANISP which sounds less than sweet.
“So far I've briefed it (MANIS) in Jakarta to
some policy officials and university groups and received very positive feedback,”
Blaxland told Strategic Review. “The
Indonesian delegation is keen to take it further and we're exploring a policy
forum to discuss it in the next few weeks.
“I’ve been
speaking on this in Malaysia and briefed some NZ officials on the idea a couple
of weeks ago. I'm quietly optimistic it will get off the ground soon.”
##
First published in Strategic Review 22 August 2017. See: http://sr-indonesia.com/web-exclusives/view/rearranging-the-region
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