The shape of the world a generation from now will be influenced far more by how we communicate the values of our society to others than by military or diplomatic superiority. William Fulbright, 1964

Friday, January 13, 2017


Doing it their way                                              
At the UN Security Council’s December meeting New Zealand showed the world it’s no megapower’s poodle.
The South Pacific nation co-sponsored a successful motion demanding a halt to settlements in Palestine territory, delighting much of the Islamic world and infuriating Israel.
Egypt drafted the motion also sponsored by Malaysia, Senegal and Venezuela. The US which normally supports Israel abstained from voting.
The win is more bark than bite as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said no-way and pulled home his Wellington ambassador. But it shows how a resolute and tiny Western country can write its own script and play on the big stage.
Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully told reporters the motion was “a victory for those who are keen to see the Security Council take some action on the Middle East peace process after eight years of complete inaction.”
McCully won’t be in airport VIP lounges after May as it’s all change in Kiwi politics following PM John Key’s surprise pre-Christmas decision to quit. The top job passed almost seamlessly to his former deputy Bill English.
McCully has been ill and his exit after eight years was expected.  Front runners for the position include Health Minister Jonathan Coleman, 51, and Trade Minister Todd McClay, 48, former Ambassador to the European Union. 
McClay’s background makes him the logical choice. Coleman was formerly Defence Minister so also has international experience.
Kiwis will vote sometime before November; if the electorate rejects  a Keyless National Party  Labour’s foreign affairs spokesman David Parker, 56, could collect the portfolio. Policy shift would be minimal as both parties agree on major issues.
Key’s departure while leagues ahead in the polls, the economy bubbling and budget in surplus should be Politics 101 for leaders everywhere: How to play the dark arts without turning embittered and becoming despised.  Few will copy because most practitioners start believing their own publicity and succumb to hubris.
Had Soeharto resigned as president when popular and development booming Indonesia would now be dramatically different.
Key was a high-altitude money trader working across world capitals when he returned home to revive the National Party, becoming PM in 2008. Now he’s done it his way again – striding out of office even though the seers said he’d win the next election.
This suggests Kiwis do politics like civilised gentlefolk. Wrong. Most of Key’s 37 predecessors were knifed at the ballot box, metaphorically stabbed by colleagues in factional brawls or literally dying at their desks.  He got labelled ‘the smiling assassin’ for despatching slouchers without making them rivals.
Key, 55, rationalized that a fourth three-year term as PM (NZ has no restrictions on leadership tenure) would damage his family and “make room for new talent”. Though usually a euphemism for ‘I’ve lost control of Cabinet’,  seasoned commentators reckon the reasons are genuine.
Key broke all rules governing conservative parties, calling himself a “centrist and pragmatist” driven by “common sense” rather than ego or ideology. He voted for gay marriage, still unavailable in Australia, and ignored overseas trends to lift the pension age though costs are crippling budgets as retirees live longer.
Despite his ease in high places Key remained the happy guy next door, hard to hate. Even his Labour opponents said he “served generously with dedication.” He stayed ordinary while being extraordinary a quality seemingly shared by President Joko ‘Jokowi” Widodo.
Although representing only 4.5 million people Key’s goodbye was world news. His big mates in Washington, London and Brussels called to wish him well. At his holiday hideaway in Hawaii he plays golf with Barack Obama.  Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull reacted with Oz slang: ‘Say it ain’t so, Bro’.  So all the more surprising that NZ backs Palestine.
McCully, 63, a lawyer before entering Parliament, worked backstage. Under his watch NZ’s strange relationship with the US improved when the USS Sampson became the first warship flying the stars and stripes to sail into Kiwi waters in 33 years.
NZ was a founder member of the ANZUS security treaty but in 1986 under a Labour Government went nuclear free banning visits by nuclear armed or powered vessels.
The snub astonished Australia and outraged America but the acronym stayed intact; defence officials quietly kept the three-way alliance afloat while their political masters stared at the horizon.
National favours business and farmers, a powerful force in local politics. Aotearoa, NZ’s Maori name, has been an international human rights and social welfare pioneer and a model for others. 
It was the first nation in the world to give women the vote. It developed a massive government housing program, pensions for all at 65, free public health and education, and  no-fault accident insurance  – policies dear to the electorate.
To pay for the goodies NZ has a high tax economy dependent on tourism and food exports.  Its farmer cooperative Fonterra has a milk packing plant in Cikarang, West Java.
Key and McCully last visited Indonesia in July. NZ doesn’t carry the Islamophobic baggage that weighs down Australia’s relations with its northern neighbor so has a benign image in the Archipelago embellished by backing Palestine.  However it’s a ferocious free trader against the Republic’s protectionism.
Also in December the World Trade Organization upheld a NZ / US challenge to 18 agricultural non-tariff barriers allegedly costing Kiwi exporters more than half a billion dollars. Indonesia will appeal.
Another potential clash zone has been flagged by incoming ambassador Tantowi Yahya who plans to give Kiwis “accurate and up-to-date information” about his country’s policies in West Papua.
Vocal NGOs highlighting alleged human rights abuses in the province are unlikely to stay tuned into the former TV host’s message.
 McCully set up consulates in Surabaya and Bali to boost business and sell high-quality education.  Aid has been channelled to develop geothermal power projects where Kiwi engineers are experts.
Whoever becomes NZ’s FAM the little nation at the bottom of the world will continue to do things its way.
(First published in Strategic Review - 13 January 2017)

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