As foreshadowed in On
Line Opinion earlier this month, Indonesians are facing a potentially
explosive situation with no clear winner from the 9 July direct vote for a new
president.
But thank God for Ramadhan.
Literally. The Islamic fasting
month is the principal reason volcanic chaos hasn’t erupted following the keenly
contested result.
It’s not easy seething over statistics when hunger gnaws and
the mind is supposed to be concentrating on matters pious, not political.
The liberal - progressive’s poster boy, mellow Joko Widodo
(Jokowi) remains in front by about five percentage points according to exit polls
labelled ‘credible’ by Western observers. Not so says his rival, former three-star
general and tungsten-tough Prabowo Subianto.
He stoutly asserts his polling reverses Jokowi’s reported lead.
The disputed figures are the result of the so-called ‘quick
counts’, not the official result which should be released on 22 July. Whatever the determination, appeals to the
Constitutional Court are expected - so no winner declared till late August.
Even then a settle down is unlikely should Prabowo lose. Few
believe that the alleged human rights abuser discharged from the army for
exceeding his authority will shake the winner’s hand, then gracefully retire to
breed Portuguese Lusitano warmbloods.
Prabowo, 62, campaigned with foam-flecked intensity for a nostalgic
return to the simple and certain era of his former father-in-law, the kleptocrat
dictator Soeharto who ruled Indonesia for 32 years till toppled in 1998 by
pro-democracy students.
Prabowo’s grandstanding campaign style, which included
reviews of his uniformed ‘troops’ from the saddle of a high-stepping stallion,
reminded historians of Il Duce, the Italian fascist dictator Mussolini. One
French journalist cleverly dubbed him Putin van Jawa.
Admitting defeat won’t come easy for a patrician who
believes only he was born to rule the world’s fourth largest nation, not some provincial
pleb. Jokowi, a former furniture salesman
and small town mayor turned Jakarta Governor, campaigned on a ‘mental
revolution’ platform. This included reforming the bureaucracy, embracing modern
business practices, eliminating nepotism and responding to the voices of
ordinary Indonesians.
He appealed because he was seen as a clean break from the corrupt
and incestuous Jakarta oligarchy that’s long controlled an archipelago of 250
million people, most of them Muslim.
Prabowo has already formed a coalition that dominates the
Legislative Assembly (DPR). It includes
the hard-right Islamic parties and could frustrate a Jokowi-led attempt to
advance reform policies even if he’s given the people’s mandate to do just
that.
So far the protests have been verbal because voters are more
concerned with their religious and cultural duties. These include mudik, visiting families in distant
villages, journeys that are already constipating the highways.
The painful movements will peak during the Idul Fitri
holiday at the end of July. Though scheduled for just two days the celebrations
can extend to two weeks as workers overstay with relatives.
In this environment it’s hard for even the most intense supporter
to muster enough enthusiasm for a good demo.
This is despite ample evidence that there’s reason to worry, as foreign
commentators have noted.
Ed Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner from the
Australian National University have been in Indonesia monitoring the election
and writing scathingly about Prabowo. Example:
“During
the election campaign, Prabowo Subianto posed as a democrat. In fact, he
protested regularly against being portrayed as a ‘dictator’—even in his last
Facebook message to supporters before the election, he complained about the
non-democratic image given to him by unspecified forces.
“Now, however, he delivers
the final piece of evidence that he truly is a would-be autocrat who has no
respect for the will of the people and would stop at nothing to win power, even
if he has to lie and cheat his way to the presidency.”
According to the academics that evidence of
Prabowo planning to “steal the presidential result” includes supporters bribing
electoral officials, sowing confusion and stirring the possum with fake survey
results.
There are widespread claims of malpractice,
including attempts at vote buying and intimidation of electors. In some booths not one vote was recorded for
Jokowi in what are supposed to be secret ballots. In others officials reportedly
defaced votes for Jokowi making them ineligible.
The police, who are supposed to be guarding the
process, are notoriously corrupt. So are
many bureaucrats; after the general election in April around 100 electoral
staff were sacked for illegal practices.
Jokowi was a late entrant into the presidential
race. In local government he became famous for his Javanese consensus-style problem
solving. He was handpicked by Megawati Soekarnoputri, the head of the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) when it became clear the
daughter of first president Soekarno would lose if she stood as planned.
The campaign, run by her daughter Puan Maharani,
was reported to be underfunded and clumsy, kept in play only through the
smartness of volunteers. It was little contest for the professional show staged
by Prabowo’s battalions. They were
backed by his Croesus-rich brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo and the major
commercial television stations, the source of most information for Indonesians.
Next came the dishing of dirt that found
acceptance in an electorate that prefers gossip to researched and verifiable
news. Jokowi was labelled a communist, a Chinese and a secret Christian with an
agenda to convert the nation.
He was slow to respond, preferring to stay out
of a gutter fight. Morally-right, politically
wrong. Three days before the election he flew to Mecca to pray for success –
and prove his Islamic credentials.
There are daily demands from supporters for
their opponents to concede defeat, and occasional pleas for the current
president and former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to intervene.
This won’t happen – the General Elections
Commission (KPU) has to make the call; Yudhoyono, who has run the nation for
the past ten years and is constitutionally barred from continuing in office,
has already poisoned his impartiality. His
Democratic Party backed Prabowo.
Indonesia’s seventh president will be sworn in
for what should be a five year term on 20 October. The weeks till then will be a time of living
dangerously. So could the months beyond.
(First published in On Line Opinion, 21 July 2014: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16514 )
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