Kresnayana
Yahya
Doing
it our way
Finding folk who think the Jakarta floods
are a hint of the Deity’s displeasure isn’t difficult. But when the believer is a famous overseas
trained statistician and economic commentator, it’s time to raise eyebrows.
Though only marginally and seasonally
adjusted.
So what sort of message from above? “That
we haven’t managed the environment properly,” said Kresnayana Yahya, a
Christian.
“Joko (Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo) has
been put there by God to improve the welfare of the people. Westerners don’t
understand that Indonesians believe in the power of the Almighty. We are certain there is a God.
“Overseas business people need to realise
this about our culture and society. The
Japanese appreciate our ways and don’t seem to have the same problems.
“In the West you just pay your taxes and
expect the government to take care of welfare, but not here. This is poorly
understood by the Western media that’s caught in the mindset of 20 years ago –
we are no longer a midget nation.
“You must respond to these new realities
and take part in CSR (corporate social responsibility) programs to help raise
the dignity of the people. We want things to be done our way.”
‘Raising dignity’ is a common phrase in
Kresnayana‘s lexicon, stressing it as a factor along with the “Indonesian
ideology of a shared life” that he says outsiders need to comprehend.
Now 63 he teaches at Surabaya’s prestigious
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
(ITS 10 November Technology Institute, named after the 1945 Battle of Surabaya).
Kresnayana pioneered the study of
statistics at ITS in 1983 after returning from the University of Wisconsin-Madison
two years earlier.
ITS now has around 1000 maturing statisticians. There are 3000 nationwide, but Kresnayana claims
ten times more are needed to fill gaps in government and industry with
graduates working as forecasters, planners, data analysts and social developers.
“I
started studying mathematics at high school because I thought that was the queen
of the sciences that would give me easy access to all the other disciplines,”
he said.
But why queen? “Queens are wiser and kings
too authoritarian. They can’t be
challenged.”
Kresnayana spoke to The Jakarta Post after delivering a lecture in mid January on the 2013
economic outlook before an audience of about 250 at the Malang branch of the
Indonesian Management Association.
“Twenty years ago about 80 per cent of the
people attending would have been Chinese,” he said. “Now it’s down to 60 per cent – that’s how
much our society is changing.”
His message was upbeat. “The future for
Indonesia is bright regardless of the world economy and the uncertainties in
Europe and America.
“Our
growth rate of around 6.3 per cent doesn’t take the warung economy (roadside stalls and home industries) into
account. I think the real figure is
closer to eight per cent.
“It’s true this is mainly due to population
growth, not exports, but this is changing. Just look back and see the
differences. The national budget is five times larger than during Soeharto’s
regime, and at least a third now goes to local government.
“Decentralization has liberated the
provinces to develop their ideas and responses to change. Think how Sulawesi is
now challenging Java in food production. Consider how ayam kampung (the almost wild, lean and tasty village chickens),
once too expensive for poor people, are now being bred on farms and the price
of protein has come down.
“Our strength is our diversity. Most of us have grown up in a homogenous
environment. Indonesians live with and for each other.
“There aren’t that many countries in the
world which have these benefits and the experience of working together. The
danger is of becoming dominated by others – like our reliance on Japanese vehicles,
not public transport”.
Statisticians keep comics in business. New Zealand economist Sir Frank Holmes once said
statistics were like bikinis – what they reveal is important, what they conceal
is vital.
Then there’s the old joke about a
statistician putting his feet in a fridge and head in a fire and feeling comfortable
‘on average’. Kresnayana chuckled, but said
this misunderstands his profession.
“These are two different things that can’t be compared,” he said.
It’s
the loose balls, like the Jakarta floods and political crises that upset
economic forecasting, with 2013 set to be a year of political floods as
candidates joust for positions ahead of next year’s election.
“We are tolerating democracy and going
through the learning process, though too few understand what it means,” he
said. “Feudalism is still present, but diminishing as people get better
educated.
“It’s not so easy for politicians now – at
least a third of the population knows what’s good and proper and can see
through propaganda. They are getting
frustrated because of the way policies are being mishandled.
“I’m not impressed with the candidates so
far. We are still looking for the right person.
Why aren’t good people willing to get involved?”
The son of teachers in Malang, Kresnayana
doesn’t fit the definition of an economist as someone who talks about money
without making any. He is also a
commissioner with fertilizer manufacturer PT Petrokimia Gresik and works for
the Enciety business consultancy which publishes enough data to fuse a calculator.
As a media commentator he pushes a vision
of a greater Indonesia in the big league alongside China and India, stressing
that the Republic is rich, the workers keen and open to change, wanting to take
on new technology – but need to be respected for who they are.
He rejects the line that Australia needs
Indonesia, but not vice versa, saying: “We need each other.
“The role of the intellectual is to speak
the facts as he or she sees them, whether the rest of society likes it or not,
or whether they are curious or angry.
“It’s easy to cheat with figures, but a
statistician’s role is to tell the truth.
Or at least what is closest to the truth.”
First published in The Jakarta Post, 11 February 2013
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