Little time
left for reform Duncan Graham
Is
disturbing news about Australian-Indonesian relations so commonplace it hardly
warrants attention?
That’s the
obvious conclusion following the Lowy Institute’s latest survey of attitudes to
those living south of Latitude 10.
The
independent international think tank released its findings Shattering
Stereotypes last month (March). Apart from a few broadsheet reviews it’s
been rapidly yawned off the public agenda.
That
doesn’t mean it’s been dumped into departmental recycling bins in Jakarta and
Canberra, or the few campuses that still teach Indonesian studies. Diplomats and academics are clearly worried
about the latest Lowy findings. Whether
politicians will translate anxieties into remedies is another matter.
The poll
results are more gado-gado (vegetable salad) than nasi putih (white
rice). First the happy news: Indonesians generally feel warm towards Australia
and the temperature is rising – 62 per cent compared with 51 per cent six years
ago, though still behind Japan, Singapore and the US.
The downside is that almost one
third believes Australia could be a threat, eight percentage points above
perceptions of communist North Korea.
More distressing is that 12 per cent favor the Indonesian government
encouraging militant groups to attack Australia.
Survey author Fergus Hanson noted
dryly: “This minority of extreme
anti-Australia sentiment will continue to concern Indonesian and Australian
policy-makers.”
He might have expanded his statement to include all
who live in the target area. Twelve per
cent is small until translated into numbers – a nightmarish 28 million
potential provocateurs is more than the population of Australia.
Fortunately
most Indonesians reckon the land next door is an advanced economy, a good place
to study and likely to act responsibly. Despite the growth in economic
nationalism that’s worrying mining ventures a majority welcome Australian
investment.
The data
was garnered last November and December by interviewing 1,289 Indonesian adults
face-to-face. That was just after
Australia announced that Darwin on the north coast would house up to 2,500
marines, but before news that a naval base near Perth could harbor US nuclear
submarines and that the Australian territory Cocos Islands might become a base
for American drones.
These are
the pilotless high-altitude spy planes used so effectively in Afghanistan.
The
Australian government is playing down these proposals, saying the base (which
would be just 1,300 kilometers south-west of Jakarta) is just pie in the sky,
not drones on launchpads. Unfortunately
such subtleties don’t count much in forming public opinion based on headlines
rather than the qualifying small print.
Defence
analyst Alan Dupont, Professor of International Security at the University of
New South Wales was quoted as saying he supports the US Alliance, but Australia
again risks being seen as America’s ‘deputy sheriff’ in the region.
(Ten years
ago the then Liberal Prime Minister John Howard won the badge for a bellicose
comment suggesting Australia would consider pre-emptive strikes against
neighbor nations if it felt threatened.)
“I am 90 per cent sure the Indonesian government was
blindsided on this and they are still not fully in the picture,” Professor
Dupont told the Lowy Institute according to The Sydney Morning Herald.
“They will look at
Cocos Island, which is closer to Indonesia than Australia, and will think, good
God! In Jakarta there is a well-disposed government but they will be scratching
their heads and wondering where the Australians are going on this.”
Clearly Australia is going for boosting ties with the US as
it starts focussing on the growing might of China. The problem is that between the southern continent and the South China
Sea lies another nation whose leaders don’t seem to get consulted.
Commenting
on his survey Mr Hanson, program director for polling at the Lowy Institute
wrote scathingly in The Australian newspaper about Australia’s
relationship with Indonesia. He rated
it as “one of our greatest foreign policy failures” with Australian politicians
treating Indonesia “with reckless abandon” and showing “patronising short-term
thinking.”
Two years earlier on the eve of President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono’s successful visit to Australia where he addressed Parliament, Mr
Hanson was saying much the same in a thoughtful policy brief titled Indonesia
and Australia – Time for a Step Change.
“Mutual
public distrust and stereotypes are so entrenched that dramatic leadership
gestures are needed to produce a step-increase in relations,” he wrote.
Although the relationship
with Indonesia was one of Australia’s most important, “stagnating relations”
were focused around “a mostly negative set of security-related issues … business-to-business
links are underdone and mutual public perceptions are poor.”
So what to do? In 2010 Mr Hanson offered four options:
§
A
long-term vision for the economic relationship that’s more ambitious than the
Free Trade Agreement.
§
A
greatly expanded education aid program twinning Australian universities with
Indonesian campuses and increasing the number of Australians studying
Indonesian.
·
Overhauling
traditional approaches to public diplomacy.
·
Developing
an outward-looking agenda of positive cooperation.
What’s
happened since then? Not a lot. Australia continues to be the biggest aid
donor, but the Lowy poll shows Indonesians are unaware of this generosity,
believing Japan and the US top the list. AusAID needs to build its image along with
schools and health programs.
The number
of Australians studying Indonesian is in free fall. More than 80 per cent of Australian visitors to Indonesia don’t
travel beyond Bali. Less than 200
Australian undergraduates are studying in the archipelago. Travel warnings
continue despite Jakarta’s protests.
While
Indonesian citizens have mixed feelings, the present leadership seems relaxed
about its neighbor, readily stamping out sparks from frictions like drug
arrests in Bali and cattle mistreatment, before they are whipped into
firestorms by radio shock-jocks.
Vice
President Boediono, Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa and the President’s
politician son Edhie were all educated in Australia.
However in
2014 there’ll be an entirely different leadership that may not feel so benign
or knowledgeable of Australia’s fears and foibles. There’s little time left for
Mr Hanson’s reform remedies to be dispensed and swallowed, let alone take
effect.
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1 comment:
This article raises some important points about the Australian-Indonesia relationship.
From my perspective, building positive diplomatic relations needs to expand beyond government t- government and leaders to leaders. For relations between countries to be meaningful it needs to involve and acknowledge the needs, desires and opinions of citizens. This is where I think grassroot diplomacy, which does just that, can play an important role.
Grassroot diplomacy which refers to meaningful interaction between individuals and policy-makers can help facilitate mutual trust necessary for strong bilateral relations to be sustainable. By creating a dialogue between these two groups at opposite ends of the power spectrum policy is more likely to be made in the interests of the people it is meant to serve.
You can read more on this by clicking href="http://www.grassrootdiplomat.org/#/grassroot-diplomacy/4553836665"
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