THE GREEN CITY IS HEADING INTO THE RED

  

A white elephant in the jungle needs a diet of dollars       

 

    

 

Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo is scheduled to visit Australia next month, his fifth and likely last trip south as Indonesian President. He’ll be talking trade, querying the AUKUS deal and again urging better visa access for his citizens. However, there’s an extra item in his baggage.

 

The word from Canberra is that Jokowi will be shopping for  lithium for his nation’s Chinese-brand electric vehicle factories in a bid to export cars to Australia. But the leader of 275 million people in his second and final five-year term will be driving another agenda, as he does at every opportunity.

 

He wants foreign investors to back a project which he hopes will define his legacy after a decade of running the world’s fourth most populous nation.  His idea is big, ambitious and risky - shifting the overcrowded, over-polluted and over-stressed capital from Java 1,300 km north to Borneo. 

 

Indonesia holds 73 per cent of the island which it calls Kalimantan.  The rest belongs to Malaysia and Brunei.

 

Jakarta’s population is 11 million, triple that number if the greater metro area is included. Java has 145 million, Kalimantan 17.5. Indonesia’s population growth rate is 1.1 per cent.

 

The case for taking the weight off Jakarta - literally because it’s sinking in parts at 25 cm a year - is watertight.  But why not build new in Java, particularly as it’s reported Jakarta will remain the nation’s commercial and financial centre? 

 

The resolute president explained the selection was not by geography but geometry: ‘We want the relocation to demonstrate the idea of Indonesia-centric instead of Java-centric. We have drawn a line from west to east, north to south, and found the centre at East Kalimantan province.’  That’s a short walk from the equator.

 

 Maybe he should have checked next door in more practical Malaysia where the administrative and judicial centre is Putrajaya. It’s only 32 klicks south of Kuala Lumpur which remains the nation’s capital. The 1999 shift was pushed by some of  the same factors now threatening Jakarta.

 

Jokowi consulted many about his vision but Queensland University planner Dr Dorina Pojani, author of Trophy Cities, was not among them:

 

‘The new capitals created since 1900 have been, for the most part, great planning disasters. They are dreary, overpowering, under-serviced, wasteful and unaffordable. In short, they are extremely expensive mistakes.’

 

Her book claims that in 1900, the world had only around 40 capitals; now there are nearly 200 with five more planned.

 

Work on the new city of Nusantara (‘archipelago’ in Sanskrit) has so far been funded by the State. But if the US $ 35 billion-plus project is to rise from a 56,000-hectare site in the jungle by next year it will need megatonnes of foreign fiscal fertilisers.

 

Through past visits by Australian bankers Jokowi knows of his southern neighbour’s cashed-up super funds (currently holding $ 3.5 trillion), so is offering tax holidays, deductions, zero withholding tax and many other goodies. There are reports that the project already has ‘commitments’ from investors in UAE, China, South Korea, and Taiwan and ‘offers’ from European countries.

 

However no independent verifiable details from the Ibu Kota Nusantara (capital city authority) as the agency refuses to respond to inquiries by this correspondent or allow a site visit.

 

So we don’t know whether these are hard deals or daydreams. Probably  the latter; if ink had dried on watertight contracts then Jakarta would be crowing loud so others would dash to the trough.

 

In January 2020 the public was told Japan’s SoftBank Corporation had US $40 billion ready to lend. Staff were sent to peer and ponder before saying no thanks.

 

Late last year the US Bloomberg business website reported: ‘Not one foreign party—state-backed or private—has entered into a binding contract to fund the project.’

 

Potential investors may see a chance to earn hefty returns from building infrastructure and, of course, a grand palace for the next president, but will the elected one  maintain Jokowi’s enthusiasm?

 

There are currently three contenders for the top job. The present leader is Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, a member of Jokowi’s party and said to be in favour of Nusantara. Likewise his rivals, disgraced former general Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

 

Building the new capital is now law so the project must proceed. But there’s nothing in the legislation about pace, or a clause stating that if money can’t be prised out of foreigners, the ‘city of tomorrow’ has to be given priority over health, education and other demands on the national budget

 

In any future financial crisis Nusantara would be an early sacrifice. The  public servants scheduled to move from their homes, families and friends in Jakarta are not as keen on Nusantara as their boss.

 

Once he’s gone back to his home in Solo, Central Java next year, their opposition will be easier to express. Unlike Australians, Indonesians are reluctant re-locators.

 

The present schedule has 17,000 government workers moving north in 2024 with 60,000 more shifting a year later. All will require homes, schools, hospitals and all the other necessary facilities and services for a modern metropolis.

 

Also needed will be squadrons of small entrepreneurs to care for householders’ needs as they do in Java; they’ll probably seek help to try their luck in a new and uncertain market - an expense outside the present budget.

 

China has been the major investor during Jokowi’s rule, tipping billions of renminbi into toll roads and nickel smelters. These cash generators offer more certain dividends than a possible white elephant.

 

The other worries for Western investors are corruption (Indonesia ranks 110 / 180 on Transparency International’s World Scale  where zero is pure) and the reported shrinking of democracy which includes adherence to the rule of law.

 

All investments in dreams are perilous, but Nusantara looks more disturbing than most. In the July chill of Canberra the normally reserved President will be hard pressed to energise the enthusiasm of Australian fund managers.

First published in Indonesia at Melbourne, 13 June 2023:  https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/indonesias-white-elephant-in-the-jungle-will-be-reared-on-foreign-capital-or-will-it/

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDONESIA'S TOLERANCE HIT BY ISLAMIC STIRRERS

 Better hate than never                                   

 

What’s ethical government policy - to support the wholesome hopes of millions of sports fans and young music lovers - or deny them joy by pacifying radicals with another agenda?

 

These questions are being asked in Indonesia during the run-up to next year’s election, with the tone already dashing downhill. The answer demeans the world’s third-largest democracy and its national motto - Bhinneka Tunggal Ika - Unity in Diversity. 

 

Outbursts of antisemitism and homophobia are poisoning the over-crowded nation’s well of respect for difference, and its tradition of living in harmony.

 

It shows the Republic has still to find a champion prepared to confront illiberalism and restore the ‘moderate’ trademark. There was one - fourth President Abdurrahman ‘Gus Dur’ Wahid - but he’s gone and his successors are turning to appeasement edged with fear.

 

The latest assumed threat is the Brit band Coldplay, set to perform in Jakarta in mid-November, delighting its fans and horrifying fundamentalists. The band is famous for its ‘infectious joy’ , philanthropy and support for LGBTQ people.

 

The zealots (including those who follow the Nazarene though not his message of inclusivity), picture concertgoers cheering the band’s chart-topper Viva La Vida  (Live Life) and turning gay.  The idea comes from watching movies where Clark Kent changes into a flying android when the music becomes dramatic.

 

Then there’s sport. Earlier this year the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) cancelled Indonesia as host of the U20 World Games after two provincial governors opposed the event because young Israelis would compete.

 

Indonesians are nuts about soccer which they play badly. Having the U20 in Indonesia meant millions would get to see the Beautiful Game at its peak and players learn new skills. That chance went to Argentina.

 

Now it seems Indonesia will miss the World Beach Games scheduled for Bali this August. It's a multi-sport event run by the Association of National Olympic Committees featuring non-Olympic beach and water sports primarily for the teen to mid-30s cohort. 

 

Israel is expected to participate, so unless there’s a policy somersault since  the U20 fiasco it seems the Beach Games will have to be shifted to a location where inclusion is celebrated.

 

That used to be Indonesia, home to more than 600 ethnicities:  As The Jakarta Post editorialised: ‘Our diversity, whether by race or ethnicity, religion, culture or language, and yes, sexual orientation, requires tolerance to ensure peaceful coexistence across the archipelago.’

When mixing sport, entertainment and politics, Indonesian governments are skilled at scoring their own goals - and on world stadia. The irony is that last November the Republic’s global reputation soared for the successful G20 economic summit in Bali.

 

The antisemites say they’re upholding a preamble to the 1945 Constitution claiming ‘independence is the inalienable right of every nation, therefore, colonialisation on earth must be abolished’. There’s no evidence that banning Israeli athletes will hasten that goal.

 

Australia supported the independence of Indonesia, and along with the US strong-armed the Netherlands into quitting its former colony in 1949.

 

Although ‘colonialism’ has largely disappeared from the lexicons of foreign affairs, in Indonesia it’s been resuscitated by the ultra-religious and morphed into hatred of a nation rather than the policies of its governments.

 

Pew research claims ‘fully 40 per cent of Israeli Jews say their own government is not making a sincere effort toward peace, and an equal share of Israeli Arabs say the same about Palestinian leaders.’

 

The sporties from the Holy Land may not be Jews or support the nation’s policies on Palestine. About 40 per cent of Israelis are secular and 14 per cent Muslim.

 

After the 2019 Indonesian election Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi reaffirmed  her nation’s ‘commitment and support for the struggle of Palestinian independence will never diminish.’

 

Steps to settle the ‘Palestine Question’ can continue with vigour in the UN and other fora, unimpeded by Israeli footprints on Bali beaches.The issue may be raised by President Joko ’Jokowi’ Widodo during his visit to Australia next month.

 

The Indonesian Constitution doesn’t authorise the penalising of ordinary citizens  because they were born in a particular territory, a factor over which they had no control.

 

Such facts bounce off nervous politicians who dread any display of sufferance will cause an eruption of great wrath across the land, its traditions crushed by lava flows of Western woke.  It’s also insulting, suggesting Indonesians’ grip on their values is tenuous.

 

There are six Islamic political parties in Indonesia, too small to succeed alone so need to cosy up to the majors by promising voters in return for ministries, much like the Nats in Australia.

 

The current class of psephologists assume the pious will determine who gets the throne, so best soothe the glaring fist-thrusters. 

 

Few dare call out this theory lest a rebuff alienates voters. One who has is Endy Bayuni, former editor of The Jakarta Post, reminding that in the last election, the two biggest Islamic-based parties together drew only 13 per cent of the vote. 

 

 ‘Fear of Islamism is widely exaggerated,’ he wrote. ‘Islamist parties naturally sought to capitalize on conservatism, but they fooled no one. Voters may share a conservative agenda, but they draw the line at an Islamist agenda.’

 

The late President Gus Dur - who visited Israel six times, braving contrived fury each time he returned, said: ‘I think there is a wrong perception that Islam is in disagreement with Israel. This is caused by Arab propaganda. We have to distinguish between Arabs and Islam.

 

‘I always say that China and the Soviet Union have or had atheism as part of their Constitution, but we have long-term relationships with both these countries.’

 

His comments were made almost two decades ago. Since then widespread reports allege that Chinese authorities have been forcibly ‘re-educating’ Islamic minorities, mainly ethnic Uyghur in the Xinjiang region. There are around 11 million Muslims in the northwest of the country.

 

Many claims of Communist persecution come from the US so need to be treated with caution, but they’ve been widely published in Indonesia so might be expected to inflame.

 

There’s been no campaign to stop Chinese loans funding massive infrastructure projects across the archipelago, with Chinese workers often involved.

 

Maybe the athletes would be welcome if Israel became a major investor.

 

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First published in Michael West Media, 29 June 2023: https://michaelwest.com.au/archipela-no-go-global-soccer-then-coldplay-fall-foul-of-rising-homophobia-anti-israel-sentiment-in-indonesia/

BEWARE CANDIDATES IN CAMOUFLAGE

 Hawks only become doves in election season              

 

           

 

Any plan to try and end the Ukraine war needs to be welcomed if sincere, well-considered, unencumbered, and authored by a respected source. None of those criteria applies to the peace proposal  from Prabowo Subianto at the 20th Asia Security Summit this month.

 

The Singapore speech was outside his portfolio. It was delivered without clearance from President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo - who reportedly sought an explanation. It blindsided Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.

 

The idea of a demilitarised zone followed by a referendum has been widely discredited, ‘triggering fierce criticism from Western security officials but praise from China’, according to the Financial Times.  

 

The South China Morning Post quoted Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov saying the idea sounded like ‘a Russian plan’.

 

The man behind the words is far more than Indonesia’s Defence Minister and ‘General (Retd)’ - a tagline as void of context as labelling Ben Roberts-Smith ‘Corporal (Retd)’.

 

In brief, Prabowo is a disgraced soldier with an appalling record of documented  links to massacres in East Timor that once got him banned from entering the US. He’s desperate to become the Republic’s eighth president at next year’s Valentine’s Day election.

 

The game plan includes softening his fascist Mussolini image (past campaign tactics have mounted him on a strutting stallion reviewing ranks of supporters) and using his media to delete the scowls and bad tempers he favoured as a tough-guy aspirant.

 

So he’s running an international campaign to redact his past to seem like a peace-loving statesman worthy of running the world’s fourth-largest country. Like Trump, he knows that saying something nutty draws coverage when wise words and sober notions get ignored, so the Singapore forum was ideal.

 

Jakarta likes Moscow because it's not Washington. Indonesia hasn’t imposed  economic sanctions against the Federation despite voting in favour of a UN resolution condemning the invasion. 

 

Jokowi visited Russia and Ukraine last year and offered to mediate, a gesture which went nowhere. Prabowo has been on state visits to Russia twice in the past three years to buy arms, though thwarted by US sanctions.

 

One theory  is that the floated peace plan will please Indonesian Muslims who see Russia as a friend. It’s been given traction this year by the Embassy holding an Iftar fast-breaking in the courtyard of the capital’s Memorial Mosque to celebrate 73 years of diplomatic relations.

 

Ambassador Jose Tavares (a Christian) told celebrants that the number of Muslims in Russia is the largest in Europe, while the number of Muslims in Indonesia is the largest in the world. This is a solid foundation for establishing Islamic cooperation.’  About 14 million, or ten per cent of the Russian population follow the Prophet Muhammad.

 

Back to the man on a mission. He comes from an elite family with solid nationalistic credentials - his Dad was an economist who held ministries in the governments of president Soekarno and Soeharto. He married the latter’s daughter Titiek but they divorced in 1998.

 

He was educated in the US and UK and became a leader of the Kopassus Special Forces ‘that has forged a reputation as the toughest and most terrifying within a military known for its brutality.’ 

 

Former US Ambassador to Indonesia Robert Gelbard reportedly described Prabowo as ‘somebody who is perhaps the greatest violator of human rights in contemporary times among the Indonesian military. His deeds in the late 1990s before democracy took hold, were shocking, even by TNI (Indonesian military) standards.’ 

 

Prabowo didn’t retire from the army. After 24 years he was dishonourably discharged in 1998 for disobeying orders, a most serious offence in all armed forces. 

 

At the time he was a three-star general leading a unit called Team Rose. Its soldiers captured 23 students agitating for Reformasi during the chaos surrounding the May 1998 downfall of President Soeharto after 32 years of authoritarian rule.

 

Those released alleged torture - 13 have ‘disappeared’. Prabowo admitted some kidnappings but has never been charged.

 

Accounts of what happened during the disorder differ, but Prabowo was involved in the jostling for power, won by vice president B J Habibie.

 

One popular version has Prabowo confronting the new leader and demanding to be made head of the army.When denied he fled to exile in Jordan, returning to start his political party Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) in 2008. It’s bankrolled by his younger brother and dollar billionaire Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

 

Prabowo’s domestic ambitions include following his former father-in-law’s strategy of getting the army into public life, a policy upended by fourth president Abdurrahman ‘Gus Dur’ Wahid, a pluralist committed to the separation of powers.

The khaki-cladding is already happening, according to one overseas survey: ‘Worrisome reporting revealed that the military manages and funds a network of online news sites spreading pro-government content … critics of the government, journalists, and ordinary users continued to face criminal charges and harassment.’

Indonesia is already ranked  58 of 100 nations on civil rights and political liberties by the US NGO Freedom House, and that’s with a civilian leader who claims to be a democrat.

When Prabowo lost to Jokowi by eleven percentage points on his second attempt in 2019, riots erupted in Jakarta led by gangs of for-hire preman, street thugs dubbed ‘dark forces’.  Six people were killed and more than 200 injured.  

 

Should Prabowo lose again fear something closer to Washington’s 6 January 2021 attack on Congress. 

 

Despite everything Prabowo was made Defence Minister by his rival following the US President Lyndon Baines Johnson dictum: ‘Better to have your enemies inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.’

 

So far we have a couple of lukewarm-democrat centrists and one hot right-wing militarist chasing Southeast Asia’s top job. If one of the civilians wins our Jakarta Embassy can click back to slumber mode. 

 

If not it’ll be all DFAT staff on havoc alert and rapid rewrites of the hand-me-downs about ‘warm relationships’. How do we deal with a man with Prabowo’s record?  Better book for Phuket and forget Bali.  

 

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 First published in Pearls & Irritations, 20 June 2013: 

https://johnmenadue.com/hawks-only-become-doves-in-election-season-pic/