FAITH IN INDONESIA

FAITH IN INDONESIA
The shape of the world a generation from now will be influenced far more by how we communicate the values of our society to others than by military or diplomatic superiority. William Fulbright, 1964

Monday, May 13, 2024

THE GAP GROWS, WIDENS, DEEPENS - THREATENS

 TRADE UP, BUT TRICKLES DOWN   

            

Pic: Oxfam: "Growing inequality is undermining the fight against poverty, putting a brake on economic growth and threatening social cohesion."

The disparity is vast and immoral.  Emotional language touches souls, but in  Indonesia it should also grab economics and politics.  The new government could demand reform.  It wont.

We’ll call her Siti. Real name usage might threaten the uni graduate’s fragile job as an English teacher at a government school. She earns less than  Rp 400,000 a month for working three days a week and being on call - with other time spent on higher study. For rough Oz dollar conversion divide by 10,000.  

Survival is by living with her parents though she's in her mid-20s. She could get more in a private school - though not much - but farewell  pension entitlements

Every year the national government lists basic wages for more than 500 cities.  The monthly rate in Malang where Siti teaches is supposed to be a slither above Rp 3.1 million.  That’s AUD 330.

Being a woman doesn’t help:  The UN Gender Development Index reports the average Indonesian guy gets almost double the pay of his female colleagues even though rates are for humans whatever their sex.  

Bureau of Statistics figures show women's workforce participation rate is 53 per cent, compared to 82 for men. In parliament only 21 per cent of elected members are women.

Experience with Indonesian stats reveal official and unofficial figures jostle for inaccuracies. One marginally more reputable source reckons grads start at around Rp 5 million in Jakarta.  Just across the 16 km Singapore Strait their mates pull in at least ten times more.

The published under-24 unemployment rate is above 14 per cent.  Over-supplied markets keep wages down unless the worker is in medicine, IT or management.  

Teachers are treated seriously in Europe where salaries can reach AUD 6,000 a month - and now chalkies are striking for more.  

The Jakarta Post says that the Republic holds sixth place in the world for inequality and that the four richest men have more dosh than the combined total of the poorest 100 million:

 ‘An excessive concentration of wealth is considered a risk for democracy as those at the top have too much bargaining power to influence the course of public policies. Even though extreme poverty in the country has declined, income disparity last year was the worst in the last five years.’

When independence from Dutch colonial control was declared in 1945 the expectation was for a Republic of equals in a 'Unitary State'.  Constitutionally the kampong battler has rights equal to the idle oligarch but in fact the gulf in government support is unbridgeable.

One gets next to nothing, and the other tax breaks, concessions, business opportunities, special dealings and often the chance for a hand in the till.

The issue briefly surfaced during the Presidential election campaign in February. However none of the three major contenders treated inequality as a priority to be fixed for the sake of the people, the economy and security.

Last year new employment laws seemed to give workers more rights like overtime pay, maternity leave and social service benefits.  But exercising these isn’t easy away from international corporates with HR teams and watchful shareholders.

Stirring isn't recommended in a culture where open dissent is only for the grimly determined backed by many of the like-minded.

Universities and unions have traditionally been where anger ferments into action.  However, only 50,000 students and workers in and around Jakarta bothered to march on 1 May (International Labour Day),  a number too small to bother politicians in a nation of 275 million.

Will anything change?  That's unlikely.  The poor and poorly paid will remain - along with coal and mineral exports - as the source of the Indonesian economy.

The well is flooding at the top (5.05 growth last year) but little overflow is trickling down.

Despite being mega-rich (a declared AUD 240 million) the new president-elect, disgraced former general  and current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto knows how to kill but not nurture.

He’ll have to rely on the public service for financial advice and his colleagues in the upcoming right-wing government for direction.  

There’s also no charismatic leader fronting any opposition. Three years ago the Partai Buruh (Workers’ Party) surfaced but has struggled to stay afloat.

Some losers in the last general election have already decided pragmatism trumps ideology.

Media mogul Surya Paloh and head of  NasDem (National Democratic) Party endorsed  academic Dr Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate.

The former Jakarta Governor scored second place behind Prabowo and his populist Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) Party. Surya has now kicked out Anies and wants to nestle with  the winner.

If this goes ahead opposition will be further reduced leaving dissent to the NGOs and maybe the PDI-P (Democratic Party of Struggle)   led by fourth president Megawati Soekarnoputri (2001-04).

Personal animosities are currently keeping her out of the coalition - though that may change as the magnetic pull of status and money intensifies.

So far there’s no indication that workers’ needs will be addressed when the Prabowo administration is sworn in come October.

Teacher Siti has a limited career future. Foremost is staying at the blackboard and hoping to slowly climb the promotion and reward ladder.

Alternatively she can use her language talents to get into an international trader hoping it might apply the standards it has to follow overseas.

But that would negate the advantage of a company investing in a country where wages are a minor cost of doing business.

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First published in Pearls & Irritations 13 May 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/vast-inequality-threatens-democracylink-b/

Monday, April 29, 2024

FOXED TO FIX PROBLEMS? TRY THE MILITARY WAY



 THE LEARNED SOLUTION: FIX PROBLEMS WITH VIOLENCE




Are you well-armed, fired up, pitchfork to hand?  The quarry is elusive, his background suspect but we know his name - DV. Are we getting closer?

Every case is searingly awful  but overall there have apparently been changes, with Crikey using  Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data to claim domestic homicide rates have fallen:

“A decade ago over 60 women a year were murdered by partners; the number has been below 50 since 2018.”  Allegedly there have been 25 so far this year.

Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus reckons there’s a “crisis of male violence”.   PM Anthony Albanese has said   “men and boys have to clearly have discussions about these issues.”

Swag of reasons have been offered, from lousy parenting, bad teachers,  mental sickness, economic distress, social snubbing, feeling worthless, being jobless and - according to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton -   entertainment, technology and rudeness:

“I think social media has a role to play here. The computer games that young boys are playing where violence is a very significant part …what they’re seeing on social media, the normalisation of all of that, it’s just the lack of manners in society more generally…”

However, there's one rarely mentioned reason, discomforting to raise in Anzac Week:  Militaries train men to believe problems have to be solved by violence and that's embedded in our culture.

Unless a family member is involved most Australians don’t get to see military top-ups at Kapooka, the training base for our 28,000 soldiers near Wagga Wagga, so little public debate.  

But Indonesia makes enrolments public and celebratory like those in the East Java garrison city of Malang. The latest was last weekend.

Admiring friends and families, youngsters flanked by proud Dads and tissue-clutching Mums watched their adolescent friends, brothers and sons walk through the guarded gates.  Sisters and daughters weren’t seen.

Months later the crowds will be back blocking the street again and this time allowed closer to the parade ground.  Here their upcoming heroes will show how they've transformed from ambitious individuals or aimless youth to robots.

They’ll be shouldering tools designed to smash with efficiency the bones, flesh and organs of people just like them and us but with other ideologies.

How can any nation halt violence, international or domestic, when it trains its males to solve problems with brutality?  US psychologist Abraham Maslow is remembered for his aphorism: “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”

For hammer read fist, gun or knife.

For personal safety and threatening suicidal extremists violence is probably the only answer; but for all face slaps and insults, why does defence so often become offence? 

Like Australia, Indonesia has an appalling DV record though much under-reported because of public shame, poor police training and a culture that says hits in the home are a private matter.

Public barbarity sets the tone.  Back in 1965, the military helped militias slaughter real or imagined Communists in a genocide of half a million or more fellow citizens. Five Australian journalists were murdered in Balibo, East Timor, 50 years ago.

Just before the new century arrived so did mobs in Jakarta killing more than 1,000 - mainly ethnic Chinese citizens of Indonesia.

More recently the nation’s new leader has been accused of past human rights abuses.

Likewise, some in our armed forces, though the case involving Ben Roberts-Smith is set to be appealed.

Such histories suggest public abhorrence should follow and perhaps it is, though slowly.  Here’s why:  We have a problem finding enough toughies to don a uniform along with the US, UK and other Western nations that recognise the links of official and domestic violence.

There are no recruitment gatherings outside Jakarta's Foreign Affairs Department where well-educated polyglots seek careers as diplomats using words, not weapons.

Indonesia’s 3,500 official peaceniks (less than one per cent of the warmen) aren't obvious or lauded, so we're left with the image of those keen to enrol in the bang-bang business and be cheered for their work.

Indonesia is currently at war with itself using rotations of about 4,000 of its 400,000  troops to destroy (the smoother term is 'put down') a prolonged low-level conflict involving indigenous West Papuans. They want independence - just as the Javanese did when fighting the returning Dutch colonialists in the late 1940s.

Close to the recruits' Malang barracks is a statue celebrating their predecessors' patriotism, though at the time the Netherlands called them terrorists.  This label is currently tied to the Free Papua Movement.

 Few know what awful things are happening in the closed province and most don't want to hear.  That includes the Australian government and opposition.

 The more gung-ho selected to ‘serve’ in West Papua will salute their good fortune in having real targets and maintaining the ‘unity state’, though families of the 106 ‘security forces’ who’ve died there chasing ‘armed criminal groups’ since 2010 will think differently.  

So will the civilian victims of the conflict - tens of thousands dead according to reports that can’t be verified.

The recruits in Malang, Kapooka and elsewhere will be learning to squeeze triggers to zing bullets through cardboard cutouts of fellow humans. Seeing what results their more imaginative colleagues will secretly hope their fate is not to kill and be burdened with guilt for a lifetime.

Many will escape that nightmare because the Army is so big and under-employed that lower ranks often have to dig  out landslides and help with other natural disasters.

As Indonesia is a pious nation pacifists will pray soldiers stay shouldering hoes across slipping hillsides rather than assault rifles through Papuan mountains. However, appeals to the never-seen but much-praised phantom rarely work. The deity, if she, he or it stays true to form and history,  won't have a care in heaven.

The options:  Use our intelligence to work out how to do the job of turning aliens into allies and accept women as equals, or give up and keep primitive violence as the default fix.

As the establishment media in Australia is keen to bugle every 25 April, this is not the time to talk of the ugliness of military matters, only to recognise the sacrifice of those who will not grow old.

Respect from we who are left behind means keyboarding free opinion in English and not propaganda in German or Japanese. A pause, though not a halt from seeking better ways of handling problems and recognising a root of male violence   

The seeds are nurtured by unverifiable tales of patriotism so worthy of interrogation. As the present political pushaway goes, all can be ‘a topic of conversation’.

But beware;  The lofty right will pronounce suggestions of links between martial training and marital biffo as woke, making us a nation of milksops compared with hard Indonesia.

Gods forbid.

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 9 April 2024:https://johnmenadue.com/the-learned-solution-fix-problems-with-violence/

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NO APPEALS - ACCEPT UGLY REALITY

 THE COURT DECIDES, THE DOOM FOLLOWS?  















       

As predicted in Pearls & Irritations earlier this month, an appeal by the two losing candidates in the 14 February Indonesian presidential election has been trounced by the Constitutional Court in Jakarta.

The challenges to the result came from former Jakarta Governor and one-time University rector Dr Anies Baswedan (25 per cent), and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, (16 per cent).

The judges voted five to three to toss out allegations the state had interfered to back the hands-down winner of the three-way contest, disgraced former general Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto. He snared 58 per cent of the vote.

During the hearings, not attended by Jokowi, his ministers said claims were nonsense. Tucker boxes and other welfare aid handed out just ahead of the vote were to help the poor and not designed to sway voters.  

It's not called pork barreling in Indonesia where the meat is taboo for most, but the intent is the same.

The Court's decision means the right-wing Prabowo and his vice-presidential running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka will have their hands on the wheel of the world's third-largest democracy in October.  By then Prabowo will be 73.

There are no further appeal provisions and so far no street riots, as happened after the 2019 election when Prabowo lost.

Another argument used in the bid to overturn the election result was plagiarism.

Gibran, 36, is the eldest son of the current president Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo.  Indonesian law prevents anyone under 40 from standing for high office, but the Constitutional Court, then headed by his uncle, decided to let the young man be a candidate.   

Anies' and Ganjar's legal team told the court democracy would suffer if Prabowo's win was upheld - and they could be right as the dogs are already snarling for the spoils.

In the Indonesian system, all parties form coalitions to boost their chances, and even those who backed the losers are now saying life will be better with the winner who can share bits of the bones, maybe even some offal for the disgruntled donors

Prabowo heads the Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) Party he created in 2008.  It drew six smaller parties before the election while Anies had three and Ganjar four.

Once enthroned in October, Prabowo and Gibran have five years in office. This will leave the losers with little to do but snap and snarl while dashing down the roadside fence as the triumphant swans pass.  

The Westminster system doesn't operate so there's no cohort of shadow ministers supposedly full-bottle on the government's departments and duties, ready to take over temporarily should the elected government collapse.

The vindictive sniping and vile slurs that make up much of Australian parliamentary behaviours are rarely heard.  Indonesian politicians can be as nasty as their Down Under colleagues, but they tend to keep the hate under control in public statements.

Sounding off and being beyond defamation lawyers if speaking on the floor and during a parliamentary sitting isn’t a privilege for Indonesian MPs.  A few are now favouring the courts to correct the slurs they encounter - a trend making NGOs careful of their language.

Opposition in most democracies is a miserable job, but if the minors can creep into the shade of the big tent they’ll likely get rewards for moving, such as a soft ministry where salaries are higher and corruption chances better - such as Religious Affairs.

What happens next?  The victors will give out the goodies and long-serving ministers under Jokowi, like Foreign Affairs Minister Reno Marsudi, 60, will probably be replaced by a more Prabowo-minded candidate.

She or he doesn't have to be an elected member.  Experts and mates from outside politics can be appointed as a minister without having to join a party.

Retno, who was ambassador to the Netherlands before promotion and studied European law pre-career.  She’s been in the job for ten years serving a president more interested in domestic affairs where he has done well building toll roads and new railways along with a universal health scheme.

Like Medicare, its well-being is under threat by doctors used to the private system so seeking more government money for their skills.  Public hospitals are also discovering a need for the latest diagnostic equipment and bigger staff carparks.  Fixing these inherited hassles is going to test the talents of the new administration.

An off-the-cuff promise made by Prabowo while campaigning is also going to cause headaches and a lot of unbudgeted money - $47 billion for free meals at primary schools.

The intent is good; early childhood stunting and wasting caused by malnutrition and non-nutritious meals is a serious issue affecting more than 20 per cent of youngsters.

Bringing that figure down to Australian levels, reportedly among the world’s lowest, is going cost a ransom and probably involve overseas help - shaming the new government that prefers to be known for its more obvious triumphs.

Top of the list is Jokowi’s legacy show, the new capital of Nusantara in Kalimantan on Borneo Island, and a voracious money guzzler.

Much of last year was spent by Jokowi trying - and failing - to get foreign investors to support his idea that the best way to take the weight off sinking, polluted and overcrowded Jakarta, was to start afresh 1,000 km north.

It's widely believed that Gibran was steered by Dad into the VP job to ensure Prabowo keeps his predecessor's so-called green city mega-project with its ostentatious palace arising from felled forests.

First published in Pearls & Irritations 6 April:  THE COURT DECIDES, THE DOOM FOLLOWS              Duncan Graham

As predicted in Pearls & Irritations earlier this month, an appeal by the two losing candidates in the 14 February Indonesian presidential election has been trounced by the Constitutional Court in Jakarta.

The challenges to the result came from former Jakarta Governor and one-time University rector Dr Anies Baswedan (25 per cent), and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, (16 per cent).

The judges voted five to three to toss out allegations the state had interfered to back the hands-down winner of the three-way contest, disgraced former general Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto. He snared 58 per cent of the vote.

During the hearings, not attended by Jokowi, his ministers said claims were nonsense. Tucker boxes and other welfare aid handed out just ahead of the vote were to help the poor and not designed to sway voters.  

It's not called pork barreling in Indonesia where the meat is taboo for most, but the intent is the same.

The Court's decision means the right-wing Prabowo and his vice-presidential running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka will have their hands on the wheel of the world's third-largest democracy in October.  By then Prabowo will be 73.

There are no further appeal provisions and so far no street riots, as happened after the 2019 election when Prabowo lost.

Another argument used in the bid to overturn the election result was plagiarism.

Gibran, 36, is the eldest son of the current president Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo.  Indonesian law prevents anyone under 40 from standing for high office, but the Constitutional Court, then headed by his uncle, decided to let the young man be a candidate.   

Anies' and Ganjar's legal team told the court democracy would suffer if Prabowo's win was upheld - and they could be right as the dogs are already snarling for the spoils.

In the Indonesian system, all parties form coalitions to boost their chances, and even those who backed the losers are now saying life will be better with the winner who can share bits of the bones, maybe even some offal for the disgruntled donors

Prabowo heads the Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) Party he created in 2008.  It drew six smaller parties before the election while Anies had three and Ganjar four.

Once enthroned in October, Prabowo and Gibran have five years in office. This will leave the losers with little to do but snap and snarl while dashing down the roadside fence as the triumphant swans pass.  

The Westminster system doesn't operate so there's no cohort of shadow ministers supposedly full-bottle on the government's departments and duties, ready to take over temporarily should the elected government collapse.

The vindictive sniping and vile slurs that make up much of Australian parliamentary behaviours are rarely heard.  Indonesian politicians can be as nasty as their Down Under colleagues, but they tend to keep the hate under control in public statements.

Sounding off and being beyond defamation lawyers if speaking on the floor and during a parliamentary sitting isn’t a privilege for Indonesian MPs.  A few are now favouring the courts to correct the slurs they encounter - a trend making NGOs careful of their language.

Opposition in most democracies is a miserable job, but if the minors can creep into the shade of the big tent they’ll likely get rewards for moving, such as a soft ministry where salaries are higher and corruption chances better - such as Religious Affairs.

What happens next?  The victors will give out the goodies and long-serving ministers under Jokowi, like Foreign Affairs Minister Reno Marsudi, 60, will probably be replaced by a more Prabowo-minded candidate.

She or he doesn't have to be an elected member.  Experts and mates from outside politics can be appointed as a minister without having to join a party.

Retno, who was ambassador to the Netherlands before promotion and studied European law pre-career.  She’s been in the job for ten years serving a president more interested in domestic affairs where he has done well building toll roads and new railways along with a universal health scheme.

Like Medicare, its well-being is under threat by doctors used to the private system so seeking more government money for their skills.  Public hospitals are also discovering a need for the latest diagnostic equipment and bigger staff carparks.  Fixing these inherited hassles is going to test the talents of the new administration.

An off-the-cuff promise made by Prabowo while campaigning is also going to cause headaches and a lot of unbudgeted money - $47 billion for free meals at primary schools.

The intent is good; early childhood stunting and wasting caused by malnutrition and non-nutritious meals is a serious issue affecting more than 20 per cent of youngsters.

Bringing that figure down to Australian levels, reportedly among the world’s lowest, is going cost a ransom and probably involve overseas help - shaming the new government that prefers to be known for its more obvious triumphs.

Top of the list is Jokowi’s legacy show, the new capital of Nusantara in Kalimantan on Borneo Island, and a voracious money guzzler.

Much of last year was spent by Jokowi trying - and failing - to get foreign investors to support his idea that the best way to take the weight off sinking, polluted and overcrowded Jakarta, was to start afresh 1,000 km north.

It's widely believed that Gibran was steered by Dad into the VP job to ensure Prabowo keeps his predecessor's so-called green city mega-project with its ostentatious palace arising from felled forests.

First published in Pearls & Irritations. 26 April 2024: THE COURT DECIDES, THE DOOM FOLLOWS              Duncan Graham

As predicted in Pearls & Irritations earlier this month, an appeal by the two losing candidates in the 14 February Indonesian presidential election has been trounced by the Constitutional Court in Jakarta.

The challenges to the result came from former Jakarta Governor and one-time University rector Dr Anies Baswedan (25 per cent), and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, (16 per cent).

The judges voted five to three to toss out allegations the state had interfered to back the hands-down winner of the three-way contest, disgraced former general Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto. He snared 58 per cent of the vote.

During the hearings, not attended by Jokowi, his ministers said claims were nonsense. Tucker boxes and other welfare aid handed out just ahead of the vote were to help the poor and not designed to sway voters.  

It's not called pork barreling in Indonesia where the meat is taboo for most, but the intent is the same.

The Court's decision means the right-wing Prabowo and his vice-presidential running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka will have their hands on the wheel of the world's third-largest democracy in October.  By then Prabowo will be 73.

There are no further appeal provisions and so far no street riots, as happened after the 2019 election when Prabowo lost.

Another argument used in the bid to overturn the election result was plagiarism.

Gibran, 36, is the eldest son of the current president Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo.  Indonesian law prevents anyone under 40 from standing for high office, but the Constitutional Court, then headed by his uncle, decided to let the young man be a candidate.   

Anies' and Ganjar's legal team told the court democracy would suffer if Prabowo's win was upheld - and they could be right as the dogs are already snarling for the spoils.

In the Indonesian system, all parties form coalitions to boost their chances, and even those who backed the losers are now saying life will be better with the winner who can share bits of the bones, maybe even some offal for the disgruntled donors

Prabowo heads the Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) Party he created in 2008.  It drew six smaller parties before the election while Anies had three and Ganjar four.

Once enthroned in October, Prabowo and Gibran have five years in office. This will leave the losers with little to do but snap and snarl while dashing down the roadside fence as the triumphant swans pass.  

The Westminster system doesn't operate so there's no cohort of shadow ministers supposedly full-bottle on the government's departments and duties, ready to take over temporarily should the elected government collapse.

The vindictive sniping and vile slurs that make up much of Australian parliamentary behaviours are rarely heard.  Indonesian politicians can be as nasty as their Down Under colleagues, but they tend to keep the hate under control in public statements.

Sounding off and being beyond defamation lawyers if speaking on the floor and during a parliamentary sitting isn’t a privilege for Indonesian MPs.  A few are now favouring the courts to correct the slurs they encounter - a trend making NGOs careful of their language.

Opposition in most democracies is a miserable job, but if the minors can creep into the shade of the big tent they’ll likely get rewards for moving, such as a soft ministry where salaries are higher and corruption chances better - such as Religious Affairs.

What happens next?  The victors will give out the goodies and long-serving ministers under Jokowi, like Foreign Affairs Minister Reno Marsudi, 60, will probably be replaced by a more Prabowo-minded candidate.

She or he doesn't have to be an elected member.  Experts and mates from outside politics can be appointed as a minister without having to join a party.

Retno, who was ambassador to the Netherlands before promotion and studied European law pre-career.  She’s been in the job for ten years serving a president more interested in domestic affairs where he has done well building toll roads and new railways along with a universal health scheme.

Like Medicare, its well-being is under threat by doctors used to the private system so seeking more government money for their skills.  Public hospitals are also discovering a need for the latest diagnostic equipment and bigger staff carparks.  Fixing these inherited hassles is going to test the talents of the new administration.

An off-the-cuff promise made by Prabowo while campaigning is also going to cause headaches and a lot of unbudgeted money - $47 billion for free meals at primary schools.

The intent is good; early childhood stunting and wasting caused by malnutrition and non-nutritious meals is a serious issue affecting more than 20 per cent of youngsters.

Bringing that figure down to Australian levels, reportedly among the world’s lowest, is going to cost a ransom and probably involve overseas help - shaming the new government that prefers to be known for its more obvious triumphs.

Top of the list is Jokowi’s legacy show, the new capital of Nusantara in Kalimantan on Borneo Island, and a voracious money guzzler.

Much of last year was spent by Jokowi trying - and failing - to get foreign investors to support his idea that the best way to take the weight off sinking, polluted and overcrowded Jakarta, was to start afresh 1,000 km north.

It's widely believed that Gibran was steered by Dad into the VP job to ensure Prabowo keeps his predecessor's so-called green city mega-project with its ostentatious palace arising from felled forests.

First published in Pearls & Irritations, 26 April 2024: https://johnmenadue.com/the-court-decides-doom-to-follow/

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Saturday, April 20, 2024

WINNING THE NICKEL ROMANCE - OR IS IT A WAR?

 WRITE-UP TO WRITE DOWN: NICKEL DIVES DEEP


21 workers died in an accident at a Chinese nickel smelter on Sulawesi island.  Most were Indonesians.

Indonesia’s incoming leader, the mercurial and disgraced former army general Prabowo Subianto has  been telling Chinese President Xi Jinping and  Premier Li Qiang on an official visit this month to the PRC their good news: Beijing’s policies and investments in Indonesia are doing well and screwing up Australian mining trade.

Just one problem:  Prabowo is still Defence Minister and has no other portfolio duties.  That’s not an issue for wolf warriors; they’re not waiting for the niceties of Prabowo’s official enthronement in six-months.

 Beijing want to get in Jakarta’s good books way ahead of Washington - and they’re stacking the shelves with invites and visits.

Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi has been in Indonesia this week pushing the line: “China is Indonesia’s close partner and has had close bilateral relations, especially in the defense sector, for a long time.” That last bit should be troubling Western watchers.

Does anyone in Canberra know what's happening in Indonesia? This month last year government seers were offering a five-year outlook, bragging that “revenue from Australia's exports of critical minerals like lithium and nickel will nearly equal the current second-biggest export earner coal by 2028.”

Lulled by sirens, critical faculties muted and concerns soothed, the Lucky Country relaxed.  The comfort terms were  E-power future, clean and green.  Now the word is red.  For ink.

Workers and investors got the brutal news in February: BHP's Nickel West, a giant grouping of open-cut and underground diggings plus concentrators, smelters and refineries around Kalgoorlie couldn't compete.  It's writing down assets of  $5.4 billion and is likely to scrap more than 2,000 jobs.

Padlocks snapped shut on the goldfield gates in WA and mines across the country as our friendly neighbour flooded the market to destroy competition, cutting prices by 40 per cent.

The speed of change has caught Australians with mouths as agape as the closed pits.  Yet all was foreseeable.  During his second term (which started in 2019) President Joko  ‘Jokowi’ Widodo seized the market by the throat - then squeezed.

Alerts given the cold shoulder

For decades there'd been warnings that the world's leading nickel producer was selling itself short, relying on returns from digging and exporting when the real money came with processing.  The same message has been long told to miners in Australia and long ignored.

But the Javanese leader listened and soon found Beijing business bankers and foreign friends   holding similar ideas.  Since then more than $21 billion has been spent on the industry in the ore-rich provinces of Central Sulawesi and North Maluku.

By mid-last year 43 smelters were running, 28 were being built and 24 planned. Altogether more than 70,000 workers.  Specialists have come from hina along with the loans and grants.

Coal-fired power plants are used to get the temperature to the 1,450-degree ore melting point negating the claim that the E-industry is in the renewables club.

As part of the Chinese deal, Jokowi also banned exports of unprocessed ore.   The European Union had relied on Indonesian supplies so protested to the World Trade Organisation, an authority of splendid ineffectiveness.

The complaint was upheld, Indonesia appealed but kept doing what it - or China -wanted.  Australian miners floated the notion that their product deserved a premium price because it was clean and the others dirty; the idea rapidly foundered on the dollar rock.

The smelters smoked and polluted; rivers turned red with runoff.  But the fiery streams of pure metal started cooling into ingots forklifted onto pallets to fill factories and warehouses.

What’s on the pay slip?

Prices crashed. Australia is the world’s fifth largest nickel producer and employer of more than 3,000. To see why the glut gutted the industry click on this link.  No degree in economics is required, not even a calculator. Just the basic ability to reason.

It’s an official list of this year’s minimal pay across Indonesia’s 38 provinces. Readily available it shows wage rates at least 17 times lower than those in Australia.

Indonesian workers get paid by the month. The rate in East Java, an industrialised zone particularly around the north-coast port and capital Surabaya is Rp 2,165,244. The exchange rate currently makes this sum a whisker over $207.

The Australian National Minimum Wage is $3,531 a month - that's 17 times more than  Indonesia pays. It will be reviewed on 1 July and will only stay put or go up.

These are basics so wages are higher in both countries where skills are needed. But whatever the job Australia stays far ahead.  Statiticians quote Indonesian HR managers averaging Rp 19 million ($1,817)  a month which is less than a single Australian’s pension.

Software engineers get Rp 12 million ($1,147) while their colleagues Down Under pick up seven times that sum; the gap between salaries is too great to be flicked aside as a statistical blip.

Apologists for the discrepancy finger-wag that living costs in Australia are so high incomes must match.  The COL in Jakarta is also in the clouds if they could be seen. Coughing in the smog and traffic choked metropolis is a misery, making Melbourne rush-hour congestion feel like Shangri-La.

Doing it our way

Wages aren't alone in putting Australia out of business and Indonesia in. The industry next door runs with minimal government interference.  Laws on superannuation, licensing, insurance and environmental controls  add greatly to costs in Australia.  Likewise health and safety.

In December an industrial accident at a Sulawesi smelter killed 21 workers. The plant keeps operating.  There may be an inquiry at some time.  Maybe.

Can we compete?  Last year the government launched a $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund  to “provide finance in the form of debt, equity and guarantees to support Australian projects that drive high-value industry.”

It’s not supposed to be toss-away money. The NRF’s mandate is to “target a rate of return of between two and three per cent above the five-year Australian Government bond rate over the medium to long term.”

This month Albanese spruiked upcoming laws to help factories produce clean goods like E-car batteries; it follows a similar policy in the US with its Inflation Reduction Act.  Made in Australia is a comforting slogan for the nostalgics.

For 70 years we built our own combustion-engined cars (ironically exporting Holdens to Indonesia) but that industry crashed in 2017 when General Motors Holden, Ford and Toyota collided head-on with cheaper imports.

Now many popular models are assembled in Thailand where labour costs are also lower (though slightly higher than in Indonesia) and the vehicles shipped complete.

Jokowi has had similar ideas to Albanese - or maybe the other way around. His boost for the Indonesian economy was called the  2025–45 National Long-Term Development Plan.  This includes downstream processing.

Before we were king-hit by the nickel surfeit  Jokowi was talking about cooperation and selling us E-cars - nickel is a major battery component. There's a free-trade policy in place meaning exports could be tariff-free.

Sleepers awake!

When Australian mines started to close lobbyists dashed into action with the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies hustling Canberra for a ten per cent production tax credit.

WA Premier Roger Cook (his state is the biggest producer), is reported to be considering royalty relief.  The national government is set to put nickel on a “critical minerals” list.

This means  companies will have "access to financing under Australia's $4 billion Critical Minerals Facility which offers low-interest loans, and related grant programmes."

Last year BHP’s “attributal profit” from all operations was almost $20 billion, a 58 per cent drop against 2022.   The share price dipped to $42 when the mine closures were announced but is now back to above $45.

If all goes well for investors the Australian public will end up breaking the corporate code of 'markets rule' by keeping unprofitable business functioning and jobs going.  That's the cost of being 'Made in Australia'.

The moral of this tale?  Boards and lenders should treat government predictions as scribble pads and do their own deep-down,  on-ground research. Also our Embassy in Jakarta might want to tell its Canberra masters about the Chinese diplomats they keep spotting around town.

(All dollars in this story are Australian.)

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 First published in Michael West Media, 20 April 2024:  https://michaelwest.com.au/future-made-in-australia-china-indonesia-are-listening/